Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axis-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1" rel="noopener">Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)</a>  has recovered from its corporate non-performing asset (NPA) crisis, it seems to be in the midst of a management attrition problem, partly explained by significant <a href="https://thewire.in/banking/will-axis-bank-right-the-ship-with-its-mid-level-management-shake-up" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sackings</a> in FY2020. Staff turnover levels have been steadily rising in FY2018 – FY2020 (data for FY2021 not yet released). What is worrying is the attrition is across management strata, and covering all age groups. In our sample of banks ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> , Axis Bank, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yes-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:767:1" rel="noopener">Yes Bank (YES IN)</a> ) which disclose this data, only Yes Bank has worse attrition than Axis Bank, which is understandable given Yes Bank’s precarious situation till FY2020.It is commendable of both Axis Bank and Yes Bank to have voluntarily provided detailed disclosure of attrition (unlike <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)</a> , which provided no disclosures in this regard), enabling a meaningful analysis. The consistent rise in attrition in Axis Bank is a serious human resource (HR) problem reflecting on the bank’s <a href="https://www.axisbank.com/media-centre/board-of-directors" target="_blank" rel="noopener">board of directors</a>. Responding to a query posed by this analyst on this subject, the bank has stated that it “does not comment on internal administrative matters”. This analyst believes the high attrition can be attributed to (i) sackings, (ii) poor selection practices by the Human Resources division (responsibility of <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/rajesh-dahiya-4911961/?originalSubdomain=in" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rajesh Dahiya</a>  since June 2010) in identifying appropriate candidates (especially at the entry level of sales where attrition was a shocking 69% in FY2020), (iii) excessive pressure to meet over ambitious targets, (iv) difficult working conditions, (v) poor training and (vi) inadequate resources for its staff.Axis Bank’s FY2020 annual report maintains that “its employees remain the most critical drivers for growth and success” and are the “catalyst which builds talent”. However, inexplicably, the board of directors have presided over large-scale staff attrition and allowed the attrition to keep rising. Amitabh Chaudhry took over as Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Axis Bank on January 1, 2019, and in the first week of April, 2019  <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/banking/axis-bank-asks-more-than-50-mid-level-managers-to-leave/articleshow/68731729.cms?utm_source=whatsapp_app&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=socialsharebuttons" target="_blank" rel="noopener">media reports</a> indicated significant forced removals. It is surprising that lower levels of management bore the brunt while senior executives closely associated with the previous CEO’s strategy got away. Banking is all about trust, and customers become uncomfortable when there is a constant churn of staff who service them. Nor is it healthy for any institution to have a high and consistently increasing attrition, which is a symptom of an underlying problem and signifies waste of expenditures incurred in hiring and training staff. It is also surprising that credit rating analysts have not red flagged this development. These issues can no longer be tucked away in some obscure corner in a company’s website, but will have to be mandatorily included in company’s annual reports from FY2023 as per SEBI’s <a href="https://www.sebi.gov.in/media/press-releases/may-2021/sebi-issues-circular-on-business-responsibility-and-sustainability-reporting-by-listed-entities-_50097.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recent</a>  business responsibility social reporting (BRSR).  By then one hopes the board of directors at Axis Bank would have woken up and addressed this critical issue.

While Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)  has recovered from its corporate non-performing asset (NPA) crisis, it seems to be in the midst of a management attrition problem, partly explained by significant sackings in FY2020. Staff turnover levels have been steadily rising in FY2018 – FY2020 (data for FY2021 not yet released). What is worrying is the attrition is across management strata, and covering all age groups. In our sample of banks ( HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) , Axis Bank, Indusind Bank (IIB IN) and Yes Bank (YES IN) ) which disclose this data, only Yes Bank has worse attrition than Axis Bank, which is understandable given Yes Bank’s precarious situation till FY2020.It is commendable of both Axis Bank and Yes Bank to have voluntarily provided detailed disclosure of attrition (unlike ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN) and Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) , which provided no disclosures in this regard), enabling a meaningful analysis. The consistent rise in attrition in Axis Bank is a serious human resource (HR) problem reflecting on the bank’s board of directors. Responding to a query posed by this analyst on this subject, the bank has stated that it “does not comment on internal administrative matters”. This analyst believes the high attrition can be attributed to (i) sackings, (ii) poor selection practices by the Human Resources division (responsibility of Rajesh Dahiya  since June 2010) in identifying appropriate candidates (especially at the entry level of sales where attrition was a shocking 69% in FY2020), (iii) excessive pressure to meet over ambitious targets, (iv) difficult working conditions, (v) poor training and (vi) inadequate resources for its staff.Axis Bank’s FY2020 annual report maintains that “its employees remain the most critical drivers for growth and success” and are the “catalyst which builds talent”. However, inexplicably, the board of directors have presided over large-scale staff attrition and allowed the attrition to keep rising. Amitabh Chaudhry took over as Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Axis Bank on January 1, 2019, and in the first week of April, 2019  media reports indicated significant forced removals. It is surprising that lower levels of management bore the brunt while senior executives closely associated with the previous CEO’s strategy got away. Banking is all about trust, and customers become uncomfortable when there is a constant churn of staff who service them. Nor is it healthy for any institution to have a high and consistently increasing attrition, which is a symptom of an underlying problem and signifies waste of expenditures incurred in hiring and training staff. It is also surprising that credit rating analysts have not red flagged this development. These issues can no longer be tucked away in some obscure corner in a company’s website, but will have to be mandatorily included in company’s annual reports from FY2023 as per SEBI’s recent  business responsibility social reporting (BRSR).  By then one hopes the board of directors at Axis Bank would have woken up and addressed this critical issue.

Why Are Axis Bank’s Directors Mum About the Extraordinary Staff Churn?

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Results Highly Reliant On Gains: Canara Bank (CBK.IN) [Canara] reported bottom-line results of INR 10.1 bn for FY 4Q21, improving INR 6.0 bn (85.5%) linked quarter. Results were driven one factor alone: am INR 9.3 bn (21.8%) increase in various sundry gains - securities, F/X, et al. As awe calculate, these various low quality items and gains amounted to INR 48.9 bn during FY 4Q21 or nearly 5x Canara’s stated bottom-line result; and  * Credit Leads To Solvency Concerns: Given the INR 27.3 bn in NCO, we calculate that annualized net new NPLs amount to 21.7%. We remain highly concerned about Canara’s credit outlook, given the concentrations of SMA loans, ‘BBB’ and below corporate, and MSME loans; and poor collection efficiency.  By our calculation, Canara’s loan loss reserve falls short by INR 674.0 bn or by 180.2% - representing 115% of Canara’s equity base and implying a lack of solvency.

*Results Highly Reliant On Gains: Canara Bank (CBK.IN) [Canara] reported bottom-line results of INR 10.1 bn for FY 4Q21, improving INR 6.0 bn (85.5%) linked quarter. Results were driven one factor alone: am INR 9.3 bn (21.8%) increase in various sundry gains - securities, F/X, et al. As awe calculate, these various low quality items and gains amounted to INR 48.9 bn during FY 4Q21 or nearly 5x Canara’s stated bottom-line result; and  * Credit Leads To Solvency Concerns: Given the INR 27.3 bn in NCO, we calculate that annualized net new NPLs amount to 21.7%. We remain highly concerned about Canara’s credit outlook, given the concentrations of SMA loans, ‘BBB’ and below corporate, and MSME loans; and poor collection efficiency.  By our calculation, Canara’s loan loss reserve falls short by INR 674.0 bn or by 180.2% - representing 115% of Canara’s equity base and implying a lack of solvency.

Canara Bank – India’s Trash Compactor

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div>
The Government of India (GoI) aims to raise up to US$560m via selling a 1.9% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axis-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1" rel="noopener">Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)</a>. This won’t be the first selldown by GoI as it has been reducing its stake since 2019.
We have covered the past primary raising by the company in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/51718/Axis%20Bank%20Placement%20-%20Jumping%20the%20Queue" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Axis Bank Placement - Jumping the Queue</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/axis-bank-placement-early-look-looking-to-raise-us-2bn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Axis Bank Placement - Early Look - Looking to Raise US$2bn</a>. 
Most of the past deals in the name have done well, although the most recent one that didn’t do too well, was the earlier SUUTI linked selldown.
</div>


The Government of India (GoI) aims to raise up to US$560m via selling a 1.9% stake in Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN). This won’t be the first selldown by GoI as it has been reducing its stake since 2019.
We have covered the past primary raising by the company in Axis Bank Placement - Jumping the Queue and Axis Bank Placement - Early Look - Looking to Raise US$2bn. 
Most of the past deals in the name have done well, although the most recent one that didn’t do too well, was the earlier SUUTI linked selldown.


Axis Bank Placement - Well Flagged, past Deals Have Done Well

*Another Unwarranted Provision Reduction: Federal Bank’s (FB.IN) results were likely managed, as it posted FY 4Q21 bottom-line result of INR 4.8 bn – improving INR 737 mn (18.2%) linked quarter. One factor, which was simply ridiculous, given the state of Federal Bank’s balance sheet, drove the improvement – aggressively cutting loss provisions again; and*Reserve Cover Is Shallow: Net new problem loans increased INR 8.4 bn or 78.4% on an annualized basis – dangerously accelerating over FY 3Q21. We remain discouraged that management hasn’t taken the opportunity to more aggressively address the risk sitting pon balance sheet. In fact, we find that reserve cover is increasingly light by close to INR 84.5 bn (versus being short INR 50.0 bn just a quarter ago) – nearly 20 years of core operating performance.

*Another Unwarranted Provision Reduction: Federal Bank’s (FB.IN) results were likely managed, as it posted FY 4Q21 bottom-line result of INR 4.8 bn – improving INR 737 mn (18.2%) linked quarter. One factor, which was simply ridiculous, given the state of Federal Bank’s balance sheet, drove the improvement – aggressively cutting loss provisions again; and*Reserve Cover Is Shallow: Net new problem loans increased INR 8.4 bn or 78.4% on an annualized basis – dangerously accelerating over FY 3Q21. We remain discouraged that management hasn’t taken the opportunity to more aggressively address the risk sitting pon balance sheet. In fact, we find that reserve cover is increasingly light by close to INR 84.5 bn (versus being short INR 50.0 bn just a quarter ago) – nearly 20 years of core operating performance.    

Federal Bank – A Five Year Hole Has Developed

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

While most banks globally are seeing sharply lower credit costs in the March 2021 quarter, this is not the case in India. There are discreet risks in India related to the impact of poor air quality and the syndemic, but also with respect to pre-existing financial weakness and limited central bank relief.

While most banks globally are seeing sharply lower credit costs in the March 2021 quarter, this is not the case in India. There are discreet risks in India related to the impact of poor air quality and the syndemic, but also with respect to pre-existing financial weakness and limited central bank relief. 

India

YES BANK Limited provides banking services. The Bank offers deposits, personal loans, e-banking, trade finance, corporate, and business banking services. YES BANK serves the food and agribusiness, life sciences, healthcare, biotechnology, telecommunications, media, information technology, and infrastructure development industries in India.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Yes Bank (YES IN)

Why Are Axis Bank’s Directors Mum About the Extraordinary Staff Churn?

Stakeholders, including credit rating agencies, need to be concerned with such high attrition rates in Axis Bank, as banking is staff intensive,...

Hemindra Hazari

Canara Bank – India’s Trash Compactor

CANARA BANK: Canara reported QOQ bottom-line improvement of 85.5%, reliant on gains. Net new NPLs amount to 21.7%, but its reserve shortfall...

Thomas J. Monaco

Axis Bank Placement - Well Flagged, past Deals Have Done Well

The Government of India (GoI) aims to raise up to US$560m via selling a 1.9% stake in Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN). This won’t be the first selldown by...

Sumeet Singh

Federal Bank – A Five Year Hole Has Developed

FEDERAL BANK: FB's FY 4Q21 bottom-line QOQ result improved 18.2% due to an unwarranted provision cut. Net new NPLs accelerated 78.4% QOQ, while ...

Thomas J. Monaco

India – Not Time

There are discreet risks in India related to the impact of poor air quality and the syndemic, but also with respect to pre-existing financial...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)