Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 29th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$2,482.1 million, led by financials, information technology, and offset by health care.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Wuxi Apptec, Longi Green, Moutai, BYD, Ping An Insurance, Zhongji Innolight, Wuliangye.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 29th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$2,482.1 million, led by financials, information technology, and offset by health care.
We highlight flows for Wuxi Apptec, Longi Green, Moutai, BYD, Ping An Insurance, Zhongji Innolight, Wuliangye.


Northbound Flows (Sep 29th): Wuxi Apptec, Longi Green, Moutai, BYD, Ping An Insurance

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a> noted that the pre-condition for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-xintai-natural-gas-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27036:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)</a> privatisation offer at HK$1.85 per share has been satisfied (which was expected). </li>
<li>The gross spread has widened to 16.4% due to concerns that the recent solid FY22 results, lack of dividends and the skinny premium would nudge minorities to vote NO.</li>
<li>It remains unclear if the dissatisfied retail minorities have enough votes to block the scheme. The downside remains low as the shares are trading 5% below the undisturbed price. </li>
</ul>



Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK) noted that the pre-condition for Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH) privatisation offer at HK$1.85 per share has been satisfied (which was expected). 
The gross spread has widened to 16.4% due to concerns that the recent solid FY22 results, lack of dividends and the skinny premium would nudge minorities to vote NO.
It remains unclear if the dissatisfied retail minorities have enough votes to block the scheme. The downside remains low as the shares are trading 5% below the undisturbed price. 


AAG Energy (2686 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied as Doubts Sets In

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a> released solid FY22 results which magnify the scheme risk of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-xintai-natural-gas-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27036:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)</a>'s pre-conditional privatisation offer of HK$1.85 per share.</li>
<li>The FY22 metrics show that the offer values AAG at a lower EV/1P Reserve and EV/Production vs the 2018 offer. It is unattractive in comparison to historical and peer multiples.</li>
<li>The solid FY22 results and lack of dividends amplify the risk that minorities vote NO. The downside is capped as the shares are trading below the undisturbed price.</li>
</ul>



Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK) released solid FY22 results which magnify the scheme risk of Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)'s pre-conditional privatisation offer of HK$1.85 per share.
The FY22 metrics show that the offer values AAG at a lower EV/1P Reserve and EV/Production vs the 2018 offer. It is unattractive in comparison to historical and peer multiples.
The solid FY22 results and lack of dividends amplify the risk that minorities vote NO. The downside is capped as the shares are trading below the undisturbed price.


AAG Energy (2686 HK): Solid Results Amplify the Risk of the NO Vote

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a> disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-xintai-natural-gas-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27036:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)</a> at HK$1.85 per share, a 10.1% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The pre-condition is Xinjiang Xintai shareholder approval. Key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). The price is final but light.</li>
<li>The total privatisation cost is HK$2,704 million vs AAG’s net cash of HK$2,270 million. The offeror is betting that minorities will not be able to launch a concerted NO vote.</li>
</ul>



Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation offer from Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH) at HK$1.85 per share, a 10.1% premium to the undisturbed price.
The pre-condition is Xinjiang Xintai shareholder approval. Key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). The price is final but light.
The total privatisation cost is HK$2,704 million vs AAG’s net cash of HK$2,270 million. The offeror is betting that minorities will not be able to launch a concerted NO vote.


AAG Energy (2686 HK): Xinjiang Xintai’s Light but Final HK$1.85 Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a> entered a trading halt pending the release of an announcement under the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers on 26 January. </li>
<li>It is likely that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-xintai-natural-gas-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27036:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)</a>, the largest shareholder representing 56.95% of outstanding shares is seeking to privatise AAG. </li>
<li>The potential bid is likely privatisation through a scheme. Multiples from Xinjiang Xintai’s previous voluntary cash offer in 2018 suggest an offer north of HK$2.00. </li>
</ul>



Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK) entered a trading halt pending the release of an announcement under the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers on 26 January. 
It is likely that Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH), the largest shareholder representing 56.95% of outstanding shares is seeking to privatise AAG. 
The potential bid is likely privatisation through a scheme. Multiples from Xinjiang Xintai’s previous voluntary cash offer in 2018 suggest an offer north of HK$2.00. 


AAG Energy (2686 HK): Is Xinjiang Xintai Returning for Another Bid?

China

Yantai Xinchao Industry Co., Ltd. is an investment holding company.  The Company produces cable and wire products, as well as manufactures and markets wool, cotton, and linen fabrics and apparel.  Yantai Xinchao also provides import and export service, produces machinery parts and chemical dyeing materials, and undertakes construction and installation projects.

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Yantai Xinchao Industry Co., (600777 CH)

Northbound Flows (Sep 29th): Wuxi Apptec, Longi Green, Moutai, BYD, Ping An Insurance

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Wuxi Apptec, Longi Green, Moutai, BYD, Ping An...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

AAG Energy (2686 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied as Doubts Sets In

There is an overhang of dissatisfied retail minorities. However, the widening spread and the volatile markets could nudge minorities towards the...

Arun George

AAG Energy (2686 HK): Solid Results Amplify the Risk of the NO Vote

The solid FY22 results could be a wake-up call for minorities to take action. The downside is capped due to the low offer premium and shares...

Arun George

AAG Energy (2686 HK): Xinjiang Xintai’s Light but Final HK$1.85 Offer

The price is light but final. As there are no substantial institutional shareholders and no headcount test, the offeror is betting that minorities...

Arun George

AAG Energy (2686 HK): Is Xinjiang Xintai Returning for Another Bid?

The bid is likely privatisation through a scheme. Multiples from Xinjiang Xintai’s previous voluntary cash offer in 2018 suggest an offer north of...

Arun George

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