Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our index suggests long-haul rates remained stable in May as carriers approach peak season</li>
<li>Cleanup of West Coast slowdown, lower fuel prices should both serve as Summer tailwinds</li>
<li>We believe conditions could improve in H2 2023, and shares remain cheap on Price / Assets</li>
</ul>


Our index suggests long-haul rates remained stable in May as carriers approach peak season
Cleanup of West Coast slowdown, lower fuel prices should both serve as Summer tailwinds
We believe conditions could improve in H2 2023, and shares remain cheap on Price / Assets


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Strike Averted | Fuel Prices Lower  (June 2023)

<ul>
<li>Declines in carrier revenues and pricing continued to moderate in April</li>
<li>Inbound to N. America container volume declines also eased in April</li>
<li>Lower fuel prices a tailwind in '23, shares cheap, we retain our +ive sector view </li>
</ul>


Declines in carrier revenues and pricing continued to moderate in April
Inbound to N. America container volume declines also eased in April
Lower fuel prices a tailwind in '23, shares cheap, we retain our +ive sector view 


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price, Volume Declines Moderate | Fuel=Tailwind (May 2023)

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

United Integrated Services / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Currently, we see one change for T50 and two changes for T100 but there are four more weeks to the base date and our expectations can change until then.</li>
</ul>


The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the December 2024 index rebal event.
Currently, we see one change for T50 and two changes for T100 but there are four more weeks to the base date and our expectations can change until then.


Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Dec 24: Two Important Takeaways for the TDIV Index

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wan-hai-lines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14262:1" rel="noopener">Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yang-ming-marine-transport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8502:1" rel="noopener">Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT)</a> are currently in contention to be added to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in December.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade around 0.5x ADV in the inclusions while impact on the forecast deletes is between 0.36-2.2x ADV.</li>
<li>Short interest has decreased and is near the lows for the forecast adds while short interest has been increasing in the forecast deletions.</li>
</ul>



Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT) and Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT) are currently in contention to be added to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in December.
Passive trackers will need to trade around 0.5x ADV in the inclusions while impact on the forecast deletes is between 0.36-2.2x ADV.
Short interest has decreased and is near the lows for the forecast adds while short interest has been increasing in the forecast deletions.


Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Shippers Sailing Back Into Indices

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We are convinced container shipping price momentum is waning, medium-term</li>
<li>Not surprisingly, carrier ZIM's share performance correlates to price momentum</li>
<li>Shorting ZIM against Long position in terminal operator isolates sagging price</li>
</ul>


We are convinced container shipping price momentum is waning, medium-term
Not surprisingly, carrier ZIM's share performance correlates to price momentum
Shorting ZIM against Long position in terminal operator isolates sagging price


Short ZIM Against Long Position in China Merchants Port Hldgs | 2025 High Conviction

Taiwan

Yang Ming Marine Transport provides transportation services and handles domestic and foreign maritime services on cargos.  The Company also operates warehouse, wharf, tug, barge, and container freight station services as well as repairs, leases, and sells containers and chassis.

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Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Strike Averted | Fuel Prices Lower (June 2023)

We are gaining conviction in our view that market conditions have bottomed for long-haul carriers, and that their shares appear depressed compared...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price, Volume Declines Moderate | Fuel=Tailwind (May 2023)

April numbers show Y/Y declines in revenue and throughput are moderating. In addition, lower fuel prices could provide a tailwind in the remainder...

Tracking Traffic

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Dec 24: Two Important Takeaways for the TDIV Index

United Intergrated Services (2404 TT) has outperformed Formosa Sumco (3532 TT) by 21% since 22nd October. UIS (2404) is a T100+TDIV expected ADD...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Shippers Sailing Back Into Indices

Wan Hai Lines and Yang Ming Marine could replace Alchip and Airtac. Short interest has moved lower for the adds and higher for the deletes. EPS...

Brian Freitas

Short ZIM Against Long Position in China Merchants Port Hldgs | 2025 High Conviction

We believe container shipping price momentum is waning. Pairing a short position in carrier ZIM against a long position in terminal operator CMPH...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Strike Averted | Fuel Prices Lower (June 2023)

We are gaining conviction in our view that market conditions have bottomed for long-haul carriers, and that their shares appear depressed compared...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price, Volume Declines Moderate | Fuel=Tailwind (May 2023)

April numbers show Y/Y declines in revenue and throughput are moderating. In addition, lower fuel prices could provide a tailwind in the remainder...

Tracking Traffic

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Dec 24: Two Important Takeaways for the TDIV Index

United Intergrated Services (2404 TT) has outperformed Formosa Sumco (3532 TT) by 21% since 22nd October. UIS (2404) is a T100+TDIV expected ADD...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Shippers Sailing Back Into Indices

Wan Hai Lines and Yang Ming Marine could replace Alchip and Airtac. Short interest has moved lower for the adds and higher for the deletes. EPS...

Brian Freitas

Short ZIM Against Long Position in China Merchants Port Hldgs | 2025 High Conviction

We believe container shipping price momentum is waning. Pairing a short position in carrier ZIM against a long position in terminal operator CMPH...

Tracking Traffic

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Dec 24: Two Important Takeaways for the TDIV Index