External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>YAL’s reported net profit in 2022 came in A$3.6bn, up 3.5x YoY but still 20% below our forecast.</li><li>The miss was due to a higher-than-expected unit cost and a one-off unwind of discount recognised (A$279mn) due to early repayment of debt.</li><li>Stripping out the one-off item, the net profit would be A$3.87bn (only 14% below our forecast). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

YAL’s reported net profit in 2022 came in A$3.6bn, up 3.5x YoY but still 20% below our forecast.The miss was due to a higher-than-expected unit cost and a one-off unwind of discount recognised (A$279mn) due to early repayment of debt.Stripping out the one-off item, the net profit would be A$3.87bn (only 14% below our forecast). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) – Net Profit +3.5x YoY in 2022 but Below Expectations

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 35 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 527.</li>
<li>We expect 29 of the 35 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 20 of the 28 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>19 stocks could be deleted from Stock Connect only since their average market cap has dropped below HK$5bn- unless the new threshold of HK$4bn is approved in the next week.</li>
</ul>


There are 35 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 527.
We expect 29 of the 35 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 20 of the 28 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
19 stocks could be deleted from Stock Connect only since their average market cap has dropped below HK$5bn- unless the new threshold of HK$4bn is approved in the next week.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 35 Adds, 28 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

<ul><li>Yancoal confirmed this morning that a coal price cap advised by the New South Wales (NSW) Government will be effective for 15 months (1 Apr 2023 to 30 Jun 2024).</li><li>Yancoal is compelled to make available up to 310k tonnes of coal per quarter to domestic power plants.</li><li>We estimate this will translate into 3.0%/1.7% pretax earnings impact in 2023E/24E, which we think is not significant. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yancoal confirmed this morning that a coal price cap advised by the New South Wales (NSW) Government will be effective for 15 months (1 Apr 2023 to 30 Jun 2024).Yancoal is compelled to make available up to 310k tonnes of coal per quarter to domestic power plants.We estimate this will translate into 3.0%/1.7% pretax earnings impact in 2023E/24E, which we think is not significant. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) – Confirmation of Price Cap and Volume to Remove Overhang

<ul><li>Yancoal achieved thermal coal ASP of A$430/t in 4Q22 (+121% YoY) which is higher than API5 price (the major benchmark of 5500kCal; +32% YoY).</li><li>This is the second quarter that Yancoal successfully beat the benchmark through effective coal sales strategy.</li><li>This strong ASP helped offset the weak attributable coal sales (-30% YoY) as a result of rain disruptions, taking the revenue up 41% YoY in 4Q, based on our calculation.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yancoal achieved thermal coal ASP of A$430/t in 4Q22 (+121% YoY) which is higher than API5 price (the major benchmark of 5500kCal; +32% YoY).This is the second quarter that Yancoal successfully beat the benchmark through effective coal sales strategy.This strong ASP helped offset the weak attributable coal sales (-30% YoY) as a result of rain disruptions, taking the revenue up 41% YoY in 4Q, based on our calculation.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) – Thermal ASP in 4Q continued to beat benchmark

Brilliance China Automotive / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.</li>
<li>We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. </li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. 
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

Australia

Yancoal Australia Limited provides coal mining services. The Company mines, processes, and sells pure-coal, metallurgical coal, and more. Yancoal Australia also exports its products.

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Yancoal Australia (3668 HK)