IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker, Global Equity Research Ltd

Rickin Thakrar

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

The postal service spat between President Trump and Amazon is sad – so sad.Ahead of 1Q results on Thursday, Amazon shares are down c10% over the past month over concerns related to its potential sweetheart deal with the government-run US Postal Service, concerns about FANG valuation and other factors (eg. Facebook privacy, Google Capex increase). We have dug into Amazon's US and Japanese postal service dynamics and our findings are below the fold:

The postal service spat between President Trump and Amazon is sad – so sad.Ahead of 1Q results on Thursday, Amazon shares are down c10% over the past month over concerns related to its potential sweetheart deal with the government-run US Postal Service, concerns about FANG valuation and other factors (eg. Facebook privacy, Google Capex increase). We have dug into Amazon's US and Japanese postal service dynamics and our findings are below the fold:

Is Trump Right About Amazon? A Deep-Dive into the US and Japanese Postal Service Deals

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Chacko Jacob

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2144" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2144:1">Hino Motors Ltd (7205 JP)</a> posted stronger than expected 3Q results with reported revenue surpassing even the highest consensus on Bloomberg and beating our estimate by 0.8%. The results were driven largely on the back of 16.5% YoY volume growth in the truck and bus segment and 15% YoY volume growth of the Toyota brand vehicles. Hino's stock rallied 15% from the beginning of December 2017 to the first week of January 2018, leading us to view the stock as fairly valued then. However, the stronger…

Hino Motors Ltd (7205 JP) posted stronger than expected 3Q results with reported revenue surpassing even the highest consensus on Bloomberg and beating our estimate by 0.8%. The results were driven largely on the back of 16.5% YoY volume growth in the truck and bus segment and 15% YoY volume growth of the Toyota brand vehicles. Hino's stock rallied 15% from the beginning of December 2017 to the first week of January 2018, leading us to view the stock as fairly valued then. However, the stronger…

Hino Motors Posts Stellar 3Q Results; Correction Offers Chance to Accumulate

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>On Dec 18th I wrote that: ‘That issue of deteriorating market depth and the proliferation of highly correlated factor based strategies which are de facto short volatility/long beta will become a big story next year…’</li>
<li>The strategy view was to prepare portfolios for higher rates and equity volatility, to underweight rate duration while being long equity reflation winners from energy to banks.</li>
<li>I exited the VIX long initiated in Q4 for a spectacular 2.6x return on yesterday’s panic spike into the…</li>
</ul>


On Dec 18th I wrote that: ‘That issue of deteriorating market depth and the proliferation of highly correlated factor based strategies which are de facto short volatility/long beta will become a big story next year…’
The strategy view was to prepare portfolios for higher rates and equity volatility, to underweight rate duration while being long equity reflation winners from energy to banks.
I exited the VIX long initiated in Q4 for a spectacular 2.6x return on yesterday’s panic spike into the…


The 'Volatility Volcano' Erupts, as Oil Outlook Remains Inflation Key…

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts.  What is clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE’s 20-year chart (below) reveals an in-progress trend reversal (which developed at a secular trendline) in favor of EM.In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts.  What is clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE’s 20-year chart (below) reveals an in-progress trend reversal (which developed at a secular trendline) in favor of EM.In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Equity Capital Markets

With three relatively large IPOs in Japan this month, we examined the prospects for  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26070" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26070:1">SG Holdings Co Ltd (9143 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26073" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26073:1">Katitas Co Ltd (8919 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26072" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26072:1">Aruhi Corp (7198 JP)</a> earlier this month. We were only truly positive on SG Holdings as we liked the industry leading margins (thanks to a focus on profitability) and coherent business model, with news flow on price hikes within the industry providing support to earnings. While Katitas generates strong margins, the valuation seemed full and potential…

With three relatively large IPOs in Japan this month, we examined the prospects for  SG Holdings Co Ltd (9143 JP), Katitas Co Ltd (8919 JP) and Aruhi Corp (7198 JP) earlier this month. We were only truly positive on SG Holdings as we liked the industry leading margins (thanks to a focus on profitability) and coherent business model, with news flow on price hikes within the industry providing support to earnings. While Katitas generates strong margins, the valuation seemed full and potential…

SG Holdings, Aruhi and Katitas IPO Reviews and a Look at Japanese Delivery Price Hikes

Japan

Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. mainly provides door-to-door parcel delivery services. The Company has developed a nationwide delivery system specializing in time-specified delivery. Yamato Holdings offers moving services and other comprehensive transportation services including logistics services for both domestic and overseas customers as well as financial and autoworks services.

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Yamato Holdings (9064 JP)

Is Trump Right About Amazon? A Deep-Dive into the US and Japanese Postal Service Deals

The postal service spat between President Trump and Amazon is sad – so sad.Ahead of 1Q results on Thursday, Amazon shares are down c10% over the...

Rickin Thakrar

Hino Motors Posts Stellar 3Q Results; Correction Offers Chance to Accumulate

Hino Motors Ltd (7205 JP) posted stronger than expected 3Q results with reported revenue surpassing even the highest consensus on Bloomberg and...

Chacko Jacob

The 'Volatility Volcano' Erupts, as Oil Outlook Remains Inflation Key…

On Dec 18th I wrote that: ‘That issue of deteriorating market depth and the proliferation of highly correlated factor based strategies which are...

Sean Maher

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight EM

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and...

Vermilion Research

SG Holdings, Aruhi and Katitas IPO Reviews and a Look at Japanese Delivery Price Hikes

With three relatively large IPOs in Japan this month, we examined the prospects for SG Holdings Co Ltd (9143 JP), Katitas Co Ltd (8919 JP) and...

Mio Kato

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