Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

The key problem is in the declining revenue from postal at an accelerating rate outpacing the growth rate from e-commerce business. This mismatch has happened for some time and unfortunately, it may not stop anytime soon. Unfortunately, the market for courier services for an e-commerce business is very crowded with Gogovan, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> Express and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamato-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2:1" rel="noopener">Yamato Holdings (9064 JP)</a> -backed TaQbin are scrambling for market share. Does Singpost stand a chance to grab the lion share of the business? It is a possibility but not without sacrificing their profitability.

The key problem is in the declining revenue from postal at an accelerating rate outpacing the growth rate from e-commerce business. This mismatch has happened for some time and unfortunately, it may not stop anytime soon. Unfortunately, the market for courier services for an e-commerce business is very crowded with Gogovan, Grab (0967655D SP) Express and Yamato Holdings (9064 JP) -backed TaQbin are scrambling for market share. Does Singpost stand a chance to grab the lion share of the business? It is a possibility but not without sacrificing their profitability. 

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/943/original/2020-02-01_07-00-20.png?1580599138" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115943"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/944/original/2020-02-02_08-38-57.png?1580600364" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115944"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>30TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - The downward trends in both our Results Score and Forecast/Revision Scores that have been building all week are now more apparent last Friday. On the second-busiest day of this quarter's 'calendar', there were 407 results and 114 forecasts or revisions announcements. The Results Score declined by nine basis points to 0.68, the lowest since April 2017 while the Forecast/Revision Score fell by 15bps and was last this low in December 2016. The 'upside gap' between the market and both Scores is still larger than at any time since our data series commenced and needs to close further. The Bank of Japan bought ETFs on three days last week and will be back in action on Monday.<hr>• SECTOR TIMELINE •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/946/original/2020-02-02_09-01-27.png?1580601710" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115946"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>SECTOR TIMELINE - This quarter's Sector winners and losers are now emerging.  The former are lead by Banks, Non-Bank Finance, Machinery, Technology Hardware, and Electrical Equipment, with the losers being Transportation, Consumer Services, Healthcare, Utilities and Building Materials.  Of the top ten positive changes in all-cap Results Score on Friday, eight were in the financial sectors. A shift in earnings momentum leadership from consumer to finance and technology-related Sectors is in train.

Source • Japan Analytics30TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - The downward trends in both our Results Score and Forecast/Revision Scores that have been building all week are now more apparent last Friday. On the second-busiest day of this quarter's 'calendar', there were 407 results and 114 forecasts or revisions announcements. The Results Score declined by nine basis points to 0.68, the lowest since April 2017 while the Forecast/Revision Score fell by 15bps and was last this low in December 2016. The 'upside gap' between the market and both Scores is still larger than at any time since our data series commenced and needs to close further. The Bank of Japan bought ETFs on three days last week and will be back in action on Monday.• SECTOR TIMELINE •Source • Japan AnalyticsSECTOR TIMELINE - This quarter's Sector winners and losers are now emerging.  The former are lead by Banks, Non-Bank Finance, Machinery, Technology Hardware, and Electrical Equipment, with the losers being Transportation, Consumer Services, Healthcare, Utilities and Building Materials.  Of the top ten positive changes in all-cap Results Score on Friday, eight were in the financial sectors. A shift in earnings momentum leadership from consumer to finance and technology-related Sectors is in train.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 31st January ►6861 ▲9433 8473 ▼3099 9062 4922

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/715/original/2020-01-31_05-07-06.png?1580414848" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115715"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>30TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - Thre were 194 results and 64 forecasts or revisions announcements yesterday. Of the 85 larger-cap companies reporting results, 18 saw year-on-year declines in their quarterly OP of greater than 25%, while 10 saw improvements of more than 25%. Our Results Sore tumbled 22bps to 0.77, the second-lowest Score in three years while the Forecast/Revision Score lost almost all of yesterday's gain and is 9bps away from a three-year low.

Source • Japan Analytics30TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - Thre were 194 results and 64 forecasts or revisions announcements yesterday. Of the 85 larger-cap companies reporting results, 18 saw year-on-year declines in their quarterly OP of greater than 25%, while 10 saw improvements of more than 25%. Our Results Sore tumbled 22bps to 0.77, the second-lowest Score in three years while the Forecast/Revision Score lost almost all of yesterday's gain and is 9bps away from a three-year low.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 30th January ▲ 8316•6702•8604 ▼ 6770•9064•4661

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Leading Chinese express parcels player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a> has increased its share of China's domestic express parcels market since launching a new product aimed at price-sensitive merchants in 2Q19.We believe SF can continue to selectively target attractive parcel flows within this segment without giving up profitability. In fact, SF was the only major express company in China to report a YoY increase in gross margin in 3Q19, the first full quarterly result after the launch of its new offering.Given its past focus on B2B shipments and high-ASP overnight shipments and the speed at which it gained share over the last several months, we do not believe investors have digested this development.We therefore suspect the market underestimates SF’s near-term growth potential, which is one reason we continue to rate the stock BUY with a 1-year target price of CNY 57.30, which is based on 15 times 2021E EV/EBITDA.

Leading Chinese express parcels player S.F. Holding (002352 CH) has increased its share of China's domestic express parcels market since launching a new product aimed at price-sensitive merchants in 2Q19.We believe SF can continue to selectively target attractive parcel flows within this segment without giving up profitability. In fact, SF was the only major express company in China to report a YoY increase in gross margin in 3Q19, the first full quarterly result after the launch of its new offering.Given its past focus on B2B shipments and high-ASP overnight shipments and the speed at which it gained share over the last several months, we do not believe investors have digested this development.We therefore suspect the market underestimates SF’s near-term growth potential, which is one reason we continue to rate the stock BUY with a 1-year target price of CNY 57.30, which is based on 15 times 2021E EV/EBITDA.

SF Holding Rapidly Gaining Share in China's Domestic Express Market

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

A <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/familymart-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1" rel="noopener">Familymart (8028 JP)</a> store installed the first set of Amazon Hub Locker delivery lockers in September. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> will roll out its new lockers to other Familymarts, supermarkets and some railway stations in Tokyo in the coming months.The growing level of competition between Amazon and Seven Eleven and, to some extent, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamato-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2:1" rel="noopener">Yamato Holdings (9064 JP)</a>, should lead to a rapid roll out of lockers from multiple providers.

A Familymart (8028 JP) store installed the first set of Amazon Hub Locker delivery lockers in September. Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) will roll out its new lockers to other Familymarts, supermarkets and some railway stations in Tokyo in the coming months.The growing level of competition between Amazon and Seven Eleven and, to some extent, Yamato Holdings (9064 JP), should lead to a rapid roll out of lockers from multiple providers.

Familymart Installs First Amazon Delivery Lockers

Japan

Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. mainly provides door-to-door parcel delivery services. The Company has developed a nationwide delivery system specializing in time-specified delivery. Yamato Holdings offers moving services and other comprehensive transportation services including logistics services for both domestic and overseas customers as well as financial and autoworks services.

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Yamato Holdings (9064 JP)

Singpost (SPOST): Lasting Tough Times

The key problem is in the declining revenue from postal at an accelerating rate outpacing the growth rate from e-commerce business. This mismatch...

Henry Soediarko

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 31st January ►6861 ▲9433 8473 ▼3099 9062 4922

30TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - The downward trends in both our Results Score and Forecast/Revision Scores that have been building all week are now more...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 30th January ▲ 8316•6702•8604 ▼ 6770•9064•4661

30TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - Thre were 194 results and 64 forecasts or revisions announcements yesterday. Of the 85 larger-cap companies reporting...

Campbell Gunn

Familymart Installs First Amazon Delivery Lockers

A Familymart (8028 JP) store installed the first set of Amazon Hub Locker delivery lockers in September. Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) will roll out its...

Michael Causton

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Singpost (SPOST): Lasting Tough Times

The key problem is in the declining revenue from postal at an accelerating rate outpacing the growth rate from e-commerce business. This mismatch...

Henry Soediarko

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 31st January ►6861 ▲9433 8473 ▼3099 9062 4922

30TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - The downward trends in both our Results Score and Forecast/Revision Scores that have been building all week are now more...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 30th January ▲ 8316•6702•8604 ▼ 6770•9064•4661

30TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - Thre were 194 results and 64 forecasts or revisions announcements yesterday. Of the 85 larger-cap companies reporting...

Campbell Gunn

SF Holding Rapidly Gaining Share in China's Domestic Express Market

Leading Chinese express parcels player S.F. Holding (002352 CH) has increased its share of China's domestic express parcels market since launching...

Daniel Hellberg

Familymart Installs First Amazon Delivery Lockers

A Familymart (8028 JP) store installed the first set of Amazon Hub Locker delivery lockers in September. Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) will roll out its...

Michael Causton