Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but that the real test will come during the eventual pullback.</li>
<li>We are getting the pullback now, but so far, there has yet to be any failed breakouts among the indexes discussed over the past month -- a positive sign.</li>
<li>Worth noting- <em>further</em> breakout attempts have failed on some of the leading market indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and India's SENSEX, but they remain well-above their breakout levels from July.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but that the real test will come during the eventual pullback.
We are getting the pullback now, but so far, there has yet to be any failed breakouts among the indexes discussed over the past month -- a positive sign.
Worth noting- further breakout attempts have failed on some of the leading market indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and India's SENSEX, but they remain well-above their breakout levels from July.


Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Yamaha’s 1QFY22 was weak with revenue of ¥482bn (-1.5% vs. consensus), and OP of ¥40.1bn (-17.3% vs. consensus). </li>
<li>The company’s FY22 guidance remained unchanged projecting ¥2,000bn in revenue (-2.0% vs. consensus) and OP guidance of ¥190bn (-4.5% vs. consensus). </li>
<li>Beating guidance significantly will now be difficult without price hikes but valuations are too cheap to ignore.</li>
</ul>


Yamaha’s 1QFY22 was weak with revenue of ¥482bn (-1.5% vs. consensus), and OP of ¥40.1bn (-17.3% vs. consensus). 
The company’s FY22 guidance remained unchanged projecting ¥2,000bn in revenue (-2.0% vs. consensus) and OP guidance of ¥190bn (-4.5% vs. consensus). 
Beating guidance significantly will now be difficult without price hikes but valuations are too cheap to ignore.


Yamaha Motor – Struggling But Still Too Cheap

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Yamaha Motors' stock crashed 9% after a poor quarterly report</li>
<li>However, there were a number of temporary issues impacting costs in the quarter. Management reiterated its guidance for the full year</li>
<li>Given that demand for its marine engines and motorbikes remains on track, we think the stock is too cheap, trading below book value </li>
</ul>


Yamaha Motors' stock crashed 9% after a poor quarterly report
However, there were a number of temporary issues impacting costs in the quarter. Management reiterated its guidance for the full year
Given that demand for its marine engines and motorbikes remains on track, we think the stock is too cheap, trading below book value 


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamaha-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7411:1" rel="noopener">Yamaha Motor (7272 JP)</a> announced a short-term buyback. 3 months, 3%. It isn't huge but it helps with the TOPIX FFW changes to come in two weeks. </li>
<li>It also helps with the extra overhang from last year's selldown and the significant cross-holding overhang which exists. </li>
<li>But the shares are very inexpensive vs peers when one looks at consensus forward earnings and EBIT, and better growth is expected too.</li>
</ul>



Yamaha Motor (7272 JP) announced a short-term buyback. 3 months, 3%. It isn't huge but it helps with the TOPIX FFW changes to come in two weeks. 
It also helps with the extra overhang from last year's selldown and the significant cross-holding overhang which exists. 
But the shares are very inexpensive vs peers when one looks at consensus forward earnings and EBIT, and better growth is expected too.


Yamaha Motors Buyback (7272) - Medium-Bigly Buyback Complicated by TOPIX FFW and Cross-Holdings

<ul>
<li>Yamaha Motor’s 4Q21 beat on margins with revenue of ¥450bn (+1.2% QoQ, +11.3% YoY) and OP of ¥27.7bn for an OPM of 6.2%. </li>
<li>The reported OP was 8.6% higher than consensus estimates while revenue was relatively in-line. </li>
<li>Yamaha’s FY OP generation was ¥182.3bn, right in the middle of our ¥180-185bn estimate and 2022 guidance was more or less in-line with consensus.</li>
</ul>


Yamaha Motor’s 4Q21 beat on margins with revenue of ¥450bn (+1.2% QoQ, +11.3% YoY) and OP of ¥27.7bn for an OPM of 6.2%. 
The reported OP was 8.6% higher than consensus estimates while revenue was relatively in-line. 
Yamaha’s FY OP generation was ¥182.3bn, right in the middle of our ¥180-185bn estimate and 2022 guidance was more or less in-line with consensus.


Yamaha Motor – Lowballing Guidance on Material Costs

Japan

Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. manufactures motorcycles.  The Company also produces motor vehicle engines for Toyota Motor Corp. and Ford Motor Co.  Yamaha Motor's specialty products include motor boats, snowmobiles, golf carts, and electric power generators.  Yamaha Motor sells products in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, and South America.

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Yamaha Motor (7272 JP)

Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

Pullback Underway; Problem: U.S. Dollar $DXY, Global 10-Yr Sovereign Yields, and Commodities All on the Rise Again; Actionable Themes: Energy,...

Vermilion Research

Yamaha Motor – Struggling But Still Too Cheap

A weak 1Q print for Yamaha Motor will make beating guidance significantly difficult without price hikes but valuations are too cheap to ignore.

Mio Kato

Yamaha Motors (7272 JP) | Back on Track

Yamaha Motors suffered a temporary setback in its most recent quarter due to chip supply issues and shipping constraints. Underlying demand for its...

Mark Chadwick

Yamaha Motors Buyback (7272) - Medium-Bigly Buyback Complicated by TOPIX FFW and Cross-Holdings

Yamaha Motor (7272 JP) announced a buyback which helps offset the likely selling to come from the TOPIX FFW review to be announced early April....

Travis Lundy

Yamaha Motor – Lowballing Guidance on Material Costs

Yamaha’s FY OP generation was ¥182.3bn, right in the middle of our ¥180-185bn estimate and 2022 guidance was more or less in-line with consensus....

Mio Kato

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