'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Monday's best and worst pairing is connector specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hirose-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13513:1" rel="noopener">Hirose Electric (6806 JP)</a> and finance conglomerate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">Orix (8591 JP)</a>.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/962/original/2020-10-28_06-33-11.png?1604374504" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168962"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/964/original/2020-11-03_12-36-42.png?1604374616" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168964"></figure></section><div><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>63 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 44% Positive / 10% Neutral / 46% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -1.2 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -8.3% Quarter YoY / -6.3% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.3ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 22%</p></li>
</ul></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>37 Annual • 25 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 46% Positive / 8% Neutral / 46% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 36% Positive / 4% Neutral / 60% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -2.0 points</p></li>
</ul></div>
</div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
Monday's best and worst pairing is connector specialist Hirose Electric (6806 JP) and finance conglomerate Orix (8591 JP).
Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

DAILY STATS

63 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 44% Positive / 10% Neutral / 46% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -1.2 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -8.3% Quarter YoY / -6.3% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.3ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 22%


37 Annual • 25 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 46% Positive / 8% Neutral / 46% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 36% Positive / 4% Neutral / 60% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -2.0 points



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​02 - Hirose, Yamaha, CTC & NTT Data, ORIX

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>•BEST &amp; WORST 4th AUGUST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>The 'best' and 'worst' from yesterday's large-cap announcements came from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-techno-solutions-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2431:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nok-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2980:1" rel="noopener">NOK Corp (7240 JP)</a>, respectively - both mostly driven by forecasts.  More extensive coverage follows in the DETAIL section below.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/150/543/original/2020-08-05_06-36-25.png?1596577023" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="150543"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/150/530/original/2020-08-05_05-52-12.png?1596574370" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="150530"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<hr>
</div><div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
<hr>
</div><div><p><strong>PERCENTAGES</strong> - 74% of quarterly results,  80% of annual forecasts/revisions and 73% of interim forecasts have negative Scores and 33% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.</p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>127 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 24% Positive / 2% Neutral / 74% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change: </strong>-4.5 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue: </strong>-13.4% Quarter YoY / -3.9% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.8 ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 33%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>59 Annual • 33 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 17% Positive / 3% Neutral / 80% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 24% Positive / 3% Neutral / 73% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -9.7 points</li>
</ul></div>

•BEST &amp; WORST 4th AUGUST •
The 'best' and 'worst' from yesterday's large-cap announcements came from Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP) and NOK Corp (7240 JP), respectively - both mostly driven by forecasts.  More extensive coverage follows in the DETAIL section below.
Source • Japan Analytics


DAILY STATS

PERCENTAGES - 74% of quarterly results,  80% of annual forecasts/revisions and 73% of interim forecasts have negative Scores and 33% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.127 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 24% Positive / 2% Neutral / 74% Negative

Average Results Score Change: -4.5 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -13.4% Quarter YoY / -3.9% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.8 ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 33%
 59 Annual • 33 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 17% Positive / 3% Neutral / 80% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 24% Positive / 3% Neutral / 73% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -9.7 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 4th August - Sony, CTC, Kakaku.com, Daikin, Yamaha, Tokai Carbon

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/136/061/original/2020-05-27_06-45-23.png?1590529581" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="136061"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p>In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall review Tuesday's announcements:-</p><ul>
<li><p>The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 44 results announcements was 18:5:21.</p></li>
<li>For the 21 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 5:0:16, and the average Forecast/Revision Score was -12.1. Only 36% of companies reporting full-year results chose to make current year forecasts. </li>
<li>42 companies will announce results today. The largest of these by market cap will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit (6098 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-nippon-printing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19388:1" rel="noopener">Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dentsu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12434:1" rel="noopener">Dentsu (4324 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>

Source • Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL section below, we shall review Tuesday's announcements:-
The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 44 results announcements was 18:5:21.
For the 21 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 5:0:16, and the average Forecast/Revision Score was -12.1. Only 36% of companies reporting full-year results chose to make current year forecasts. 
42 companies will announce results today. The largest of these by market cap will be Recruit (6098 JP), Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP), and Dentsu (4324 JP). 


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 26th May - Konica Minolta, Yamaha, DyDo, JAT

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/135/795/original/2020-05-26_06-26-15.png?1590441998" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="135795"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall review Monday's announcements:-</p></div><div><ul>
<li>The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 59 results announcements was 24:5:30. The average change in Results Score was -1.4.</li>
<li>For the 37 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 4:3:20, and the average Forecast/Revision Score was -7.9. Only 38% of companies reporting full-year results chose to make current year forecasts. </li>
<li>45 companies will announce results on Monday. The largest of these by market cap will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1" rel="noopener">Suzuki (7269 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamaha-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17841:1" rel="noopener">Yamaha (7951 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isuzu-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14726:1" rel="noopener">Isuzu (7202 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL section below, we shall review Monday's announcements:-
The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 59 results announcements was 24:5:30. The average change in Results Score was -1.4.
For the 37 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 4:3:20, and the average Forecast/Revision Score was -7.9. Only 38% of companies reporting full-year results chose to make current year forecasts. 
45 companies will announce results on Monday. The largest of these by market cap will be Suzuki (7269 JP), Yamaha (7951 JP), and Isuzu (7202 JP). 


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 25th May - Ajinomoto, Oji, THK, Fujikura

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/131/966/original/2020-05-08_05-43-09.png?1588884207" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="131966"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>7TH MAY</strong> - As we pick up again after the Golden Week holidays, the results and revisions 'reality' will increasingly take over the market narrative. Our cap-weighted aggregate Results &amp; Revision Score continues to decline, reaching a fresh three-year low.  A new ten-year low will follow next week, which we expect will curb any upside enthusiasm.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/131/970/original/File%202020-05-07%204%2029%2028.jpeg?1588886994" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="131970"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • SUTD Data-Driven Innovation Lab</div><p><strong>THE ROAD TO ZERO</strong> - Having extended the nationwide state of emergency, the Japanese government is already relaxing restrictions in less-affected prefectures and has hinted that the measures limited activity in the remainder could be lifted before the end of the month. A simulation by the Singapore University of Technology and Design's Data-Driven Innovation Lab suggests that the goal of zero daily new confirmed new cases could be reached as early as 8th June. Testing is now being ramped up as the bureaucratic 'hurdles' are being overcome, and overly-strict preconditions have been relaxed. Nevertheless, the economic consequences of the extension are such that a second supplementary budget and an easing of the requirements for business interruption subsidies will be necessary.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/131/971/original/2020-05-08_06-52-52.png?1588888396" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="131971"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>THE OTHER SHOE? -</strong> The strength of the yen against the US Dollar and by extension against most emerging market currencies is a factor that has received less attention but has a bearing on the earnings of many Japanese exporters. We are preparing an <strong>Insight</strong> on the likely impact and those companies whose absolute and relative share prices are most and least correlated.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/131/972/original/2020-05-08_06-59-20.png?1588888777" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="131972"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p>In the<strong> DETAIL </strong>below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made by larger-cap companies yesterday.  On another relatively quiet day, the balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 51 results announcements was 15:6:30. The average change in Score was -83. For the 29 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 11:1:17  and the average Score was -2. Of the 32 companies declaring full-year results, just nine made interim or annual forecasts for the current year. Two hundred twenty-three companies will announce today, the largest of which by market capitalisation will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoya-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8990:1" rel="noopener">Hoya (7741 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu (8001 JP)</a>. </p>

Source • Japan Analytics7TH MAY - As we pick up again after the Golden Week holidays, the results and revisions 'reality' will increasingly take over the market narrative. Our cap-weighted aggregate Results &amp; Revision Score continues to decline, reaching a fresh three-year low.  A new ten-year low will follow next week, which we expect will curb any upside enthusiasm.Source • SUTD Data-Driven Innovation LabTHE ROAD TO ZERO - Having extended the nationwide state of emergency, the Japanese government is already relaxing restrictions in less-affected prefectures and has hinted that the measures limited activity in the remainder could be lifted before the end of the month. A simulation by the Singapore University of Technology and Design's Data-Driven Innovation Lab suggests that the goal of zero daily new confirmed new cases could be reached as early as 8th June. Testing is now being ramped up as the bureaucratic 'hurdles' are being overcome, and overly-strict preconditions have been relaxed. Nevertheless, the economic consequences of the extension are such that a second supplementary budget and an easing of the requirements for business interruption subsidies will be necessary.Source • Japan AnalyticsTHE OTHER SHOE? - The strength of the yen against the US Dollar and by extension against most emerging market currencies is a factor that has received less attention but has a bearing on the earnings of many Japanese exporters. We are preparing an Insight on the likely impact and those companies whose absolute and relative share prices are most and least correlated.Source • Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made by larger-cap companies yesterday.  On another relatively quiet day, the balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 51 results announcements was 15:6:30. The average change in Score was -83. For the 29 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 11:1:17  and the average Score was -2. Of the 32 companies declaring full-year results, just nine made interim or annual forecasts for the current year. Two hundred twenty-three companies will announce today, the largest of which by market capitalisation will be Hoya (7741 JP), Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP), and Itochu (8001 JP). 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 7th May - Yamaha, Misumi, FANCL, Workman, Nintendo

Japan

YAMAHA CORPORATION mainly manufactures musical instruments, audio equipment, and golf equipment.  The Company also produces information & communication equipment and semiconductors.  Yamaha operates recreation business. The Company has many overseas subsidiaries.

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Yamaha Corp (7951 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/02 - Hirose, Yamaha, CTC & NTT Data, ORIX

• BEST & WORST • Monday's best and worst pairing is connector specialist Hirose Electric (6806 JP) and finance conglomerate Orix (8591 JP).

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 4th August - Sony, CTC, Kakaku.com, Daikin, Yamaha, Tokai Carbon

•BEST & WORST 4th AUGUST • The 'best' and 'worst' from yesterday's large-cap announcements came from Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP) and NOK...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 26th May - Konica Minolta, Yamaha, DyDo, JAT

In the DETAIL section below, we shall review Tuesday's announcements:- The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 44 results...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 25th May - Ajinomoto, Oji, THK, Fujikura

In the DETAIL section below, we shall review Monday's announcements:- The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 59 results announcements...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 7th May - Yamaha, Misumi, FANCL, Workman, Nintendo

7TH MAY - As we pick up again after the Golden Week holidays, the results and revisions 'reality' will increasingly take over the market narrative....

Campbell Gunn

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🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​02 - Hirose, Yamaha, CTC & NTT Data, ORIX

• BEST & WORST • Monday's best and worst pairing is connector specialist Hirose Electric (6806 JP) and finance conglomerate Orix (8591 JP).

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 4th August - Sony, CTC, Kakaku.com, Daikin, Yamaha, Tokai Carbon

•BEST & WORST 4th AUGUST • The 'best' and 'worst' from yesterday's large-cap announcements came from Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP) and NOK...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 26th May - Konica Minolta, Yamaha, DyDo, JAT

In the DETAIL section below, we shall review Tuesday's announcements:- The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 44 results...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 25th May - Ajinomoto, Oji, THK, Fujikura

In the DETAIL section below, we shall review Monday's announcements:- The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 59 results announcements...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 7th May - Yamaha, Misumi, FANCL, Workman, Nintendo

7TH MAY - As we pick up again after the Golden Week holidays, the results and revisions 'reality' will increasingly take over the market narrative....

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/02 - Hirose, Yamaha, CTC & NTT Data, ORIX