Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Given the likelihood of more buybacks and pressure on capital allocation and structuring of the renewable energy business, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy (5021 JP)</a> is more of a buy than a sell.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam Group (OLG SP)</a> is a tricky beast to analyze. A key issue for investors is valuing Olam, ex- Olam Agri, ex- OFI.</li>
<li>Unloved as it is, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamada-denki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:641:1" rel="noopener">Yamada Denki (9831 JP)</a> is still cheap. </li>
</ul>


Given the likelihood of more buybacks and pressure on capital allocation and structuring of the renewable energy business, Cosmo Energy (5021 JP) is more of a buy than a sell.

Olam Group (OLG SP) is a tricky beast to analyze. A key issue for investors is valuing Olam, ex- Olam Agri, ex- OFI.
Unloved as it is, Yamada Denki (9831 JP) is still cheap. 


Last Week In SPACE: Cosmo, Olam, Yamada Denki, Jardine Cycle/Astra, Tianneng Power/Battery, Fujitsu

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamada-denki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:641:1" rel="noopener">Yamada Denki (9831 JP)</a> has bought back nearly 16% of shares out ex-Treasury in the 7.5 months since last fiscal year earnings were announced. It went limit up on Day1.</li>
<li>Then it stopped - despite the buyback being 15% of expected volume every day for a year and a HUGE piece of Real World Float.</li>
<li>There is 8% left to buy at current prices - 16-18% of volume the next 4.5mos. And it is still a dirt cheap capital structure and somewhat sticky shareholder structure.</li>
</ul>



Yamada Denki (9831 JP) has bought back nearly 16% of shares out ex-Treasury in the 7.5 months since last fiscal year earnings were announced. It went limit up on Day1.
Then it stopped - despite the buyback being 15% of expected volume every day for a year and a HUGE piece of Real World Float.
There is 8% left to buy at current prices - 16-18% of volume the next 4.5mos. And it is still a dirt cheap capital structure and somewhat sticky shareholder structure.


Yamada Denki (9831) - GINORMOUS Buyback 2/3 Done. Stock Price Reaction Limited.

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Although there are some points to iron out, Fortress Investment is in the final stages of negotiation to purchase Sogo Seibu from Seven &amp; I, with Yodobashi Camera as partner. </li>
<li>This is an exciting move for Yodobashi as it should be an excellent choice to leverage Sogo Seibu’s better locations and create more competition for rivals like Bic Camera.</li>
<li>Even so, some stores will no longer have a future under their existing banners and the acquisition will mark the final demise of a 170 year old brand and company.</li>
</ul>


Although there are some points to iron out, Fortress Investment is in the final stages of negotiation to purchase Sogo Seibu from Seven &amp; I, with Yodobashi Camera as partner. 
This is an exciting move for Yodobashi as it should be an excellent choice to leverage Sogo Seibu’s better locations and create more competition for rivals like Bic Camera.
Even so, some stores will no longer have a future under their existing banners and the acquisition will mark the final demise of a 170 year old brand and company.


Yodobashi to Become Top 10 Retailer in Sogo Seibu Deal with Fortress

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nitori dominates in home decor and furniture but now wants to become a top 10 fashion retailer through its N+ chain targeting older women. </li>
<li>It will raise the rate of new stores to 30 a year and then to up to 100 a year as it reaches scale. </li>
<li>Will it be the Uniqlo for the middle-aged? If so it could own a chunk of a segment worth an estimated ¥2.5 trillion.</li>
</ul>


Nitori dominates in home decor and furniture but now wants to become a top 10 fashion retailer through its N+ chain targeting older women. 
It will raise the rate of new stores to 30 a year and then to up to 100 a year as it reaches scale. 
Will it be the Uniqlo for the middle-aged? If so it could own a chunk of a segment worth an estimated ¥2.5 trillion.


Nitori to Ramp up N+ Clothing Chain – ¥500 Billion in New Sales?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Consumer electronics retailers and producers benefited a lot from the pandemic, supplying customers stuck at home with kit for work and play. </li>
<li>The Olympics also encouraged people to update their TVs and entertainment systems.</li>
<li>Now, sales are falling to pre-2020 levels due to saturation. Inflationary pressures also mean more people are turning to second-hand options or simply not replacing old appliances at all.</li>
</ul>


Consumer electronics retailers and producers benefited a lot from the pandemic, supplying customers stuck at home with kit for work and play. 
The Olympics also encouraged people to update their TVs and entertainment systems.
Now, sales are falling to pre-2020 levels due to saturation. Inflationary pressures also mean more people are turning to second-hand options or simply not replacing old appliances at all.


Japan's Consumer Electronics Retailers Face Tough Outlook

Japan

YAMADA DENKI CO., LTD. operates consumer electronic mass sales stores throughout Japan.  The Company sells home appliances, audio & visual systems, office automation equipment, telecommunication equipment, software, and computers. The Company also provides repair services for its merchandises.

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Yamada Denki (9831 JP)

Last Week In SPACE: Cosmo, Olam, Yamada Denki, Jardine Cycle/Astra, Tianneng Power/Battery, Fujitsu

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Yamada Denki (9831) - GINORMOUS Buyback 2/3 Done. Stock Price Reaction Limited.

Ubiquitous electronics retailer Yamada Denki announced a HUGE 24% buyback last May. Then it started buying. It is 2/3 done now with plenty of room...

Travis Lundy

Yodobashi to Become Top 10 Retailer in Sogo Seibu Deal with Fortress

The sale of Sogo Seibu won't make much difference to Seven & I but if the sale to Fortress goes ahead will make Yodobashi Camera into one of...

Michael Causton

Nitori to Ramp up N+ Clothing Chain – ¥500 Billion in New Sales?

Nitori has been underestimated before and now apparel retailers believe Nitori doesn't have the experience to take them on. They are wrong. It...

Michael Causton

Japan's Consumer Electronics Retailers Face Tough Outlook

Don't expect much growth from Japan's consumer electronics retailers. With market saturation and waning demand, there is trouble ahead and possibly...

Michael Causton

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