'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><p>Our best and worst pair from Tuesday's announcements is consumer electronics retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bic-camera-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11328:1" rel="noopener">Bic Camera (3048 JP)</a> and Japan's largest mall operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-mall-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5262:1" rel="noopener">AEON Mall (8905 JP)</a>.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/781/original/2020-10-07_06-18-08.png?1602019101" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163781"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/782/original/2020-10-07_06-18-56.png?1602019156" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163782"></figure><div class="content-caption"><span>Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</span></div><div><hr></div><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>16 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 63% Positive / 0% Neutral / 37% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change</strong>: +3.4 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> +3.4% Quarter YoY / -0.5% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change</strong>: +0.3ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: </strong>25%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>11 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 45% Positive /18% Neutral / 37% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -0.3 point</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair from Tuesday's announcements is consumer electronics retailer Bic Camera (3048 JP) and Japan's largest mall operator AEON Mall (8905 JP).Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS16 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 63% Positive / 0% Neutral / 37% Negative
Average Results Score Change: +3.4 points
Average % Change in Revenue: +3.4% Quarter YoY / -0.5% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: +0.3ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 25%
11 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 45% Positive /18% Neutral / 37% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.3 point


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/​​​​​​​06 -  SAN-A, AEON Mall, Consumer Electronics Retailers

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<p>At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.</p>
<p>Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.</p>
<p>Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.</p>
<p>The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:</p>
<ul>
<li>An overview of consumer demand and retail performance</li>
<li>Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.</li>
<li>Rankings:
<ul>
<li>Market share and size by sector/format</li>
<li>By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion</li>
<li>By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part II which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-japan-retail-review-winners-and-losers-in-japanese-retailing-part-i" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Part I, which provides a quick overview of all retailing, can be read here</a>.</p>

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.
Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.
Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.
The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:

An overview of consumer demand and retail performance
Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.
Rankings:

Market share and size by sector/format
By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion
By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.



As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part II which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector. Part I, which provides a quick overview of all retailing, can be read here.

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Vedanta, Cardinal Res., Japan Retail Fund, HSBC, Opticomm, Tiffany/LVMH

Travis Lundy

<p>The first insight in this event coverage was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yamada-denki-partial-tob-for-hinokiya-1413-jp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43060" rel="noopener">Yamada Denki Partial TOB For Hinokiya (1413 JP)</a>. In that insight I wrote that this was a transaction where the founding family was selling and the company was getting a new sponsor. If the forecasts for this year and the Medium Term Plan are anywhere near accurate, this is a very cheap stock. </p><p>If you can buy it cheap to terms (say 3-4% below terms), because of the structure of the shareholder base and the conditions of the Offer, I expect this will leave one with a very attractive net average breakeven buy price. </p><p>This insight contains the Arb Grids showing breakeven forward price, breakeven PER, breakeven PBR based on market price, pro-ration, and company guidance. </p><p>More detail below. </p>

The first insight in this event coverage was Yamada Denki Partial TOB For Hinokiya (1413 JP). In that insight I wrote that this was a transaction where the founding family was selling and the company was getting a new sponsor. If the forecasts for this year and the Medium Term Plan are anywhere near accurate, this is a very cheap stock. If you can buy it cheap to terms (say 3-4% below terms), because of the structure of the shareholder base and the conditions of the Offer, I expect this will leave one with a very attractive net average breakeven buy price. This insight contains the Arb Grids showing breakeven forward price, breakeven PER, breakeven PBR based on market price, pro-ration, and company guidance. More detail below. 

Hinokiya (1413 JP) Partial Tender Arb Grids & ProRation

<p>Japan's largest electronics retailer, well-known for running large and shiny stores with more aisle space than the more aggressive electronics retailers like Bic and Yodobashi in urban areas, has agreed to buy 45.6-50.1% of Tokyo-based custom homebuilder <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hinokiya-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12117:1" rel="noopener">Hinokiya Holdings (1413 JP)</a> from the founder and his relatives in a Partial Tender Offer at ¥2,000/share which is ~12% premium to last. </p><p>This is really a two-party transaction. Buyer and Seller. The company and its minority shareholders are effectively bystanders but the company will have a cooperative relationship with Yamada Denki. Yamada Denki will then own and most likely consolidate the company. At ¥2,000/share it is not an expensive purchase and given the breadth of Yamada Denki's coverage, there may actually be some interesting follow-on effects. </p><p>This is an interesting situation for long-only investors and arbitrageurs for reasons wholly unlike normal partial tender situations. More below the fold. </p>

Japan's largest electronics retailer, well-known for running large and shiny stores with more aisle space than the more aggressive electronics retailers like Bic and Yodobashi in urban areas, has agreed to buy 45.6-50.1% of Tokyo-based custom homebuilder Hinokiya Holdings (1413 JP) from the founder and his relatives in a Partial Tender Offer at ¥2,000/share which is ~12% premium to last. This is really a two-party transaction. Buyer and Seller. The company and its minority shareholders are effectively bystanders but the company will have a cooperative relationship with Yamada Denki. Yamada Denki will then own and most likely consolidate the company. At ¥2,000/share it is not an expensive purchase and given the breadth of Yamada Denki's coverage, there may actually be some interesting follow-on effects. This is an interesting situation for long-only investors and arbitrageurs for reasons wholly unlike normal partial tender situations. More below the fold. 

Yamada Denki Partial TOB For Hinokiya (1413 JP)

Japan

YAMADA DENKI CO., LTD. operates consumer electronic mass sales stores throughout Japan.  The Company sells home appliances, audio & visual systems, office automation equipment, telecommunication equipment, software, and computers. The Company also provides repair services for its merchandises.

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Yamada Denki (9831 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/06 - SAN-A, AEON Mall, Consumer Electronics Retailers

• BEST WORST • Our best and worst pair from Tuesday's announcements is

Campbell Gunn

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of...

Michael Causton

Last Week in Event SPACE: Vedanta, Cardinal Res., Japan Retail Fund, HSBC, Opticomm, Tiffany/LVMH

Last Week in Event SPACE ... Plus, other events, CCASS movements and Mood Spins. (This insight covers specific insights & comments...

David Blennerhassett

Hinokiya (1413 JP) Partial Tender Arb Grids & ProRation

The first insight in this event coverage was Yamada Denki Partial TOB For Hinokiya (1413 JP). In that insight I expected the shares to trade

Travis Lundy

Yamada Denki Partial TOB For Hinokiya (1413 JP)

Japan's largest electronics retailer, well-known for running large and shiny stores with more c

Travis Lundy

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52-week Range

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P/E

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🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/​​​​​​​06 - SAN-A, AEON Mall, Consumer Electronics Retailers

• BEST WORST • Our best and worst pair from Tuesday's announcements is

Campbell Gunn

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of...

Michael Causton

Last Week in Event SPACE: Vedanta, Cardinal Res., Japan Retail Fund, HSBC, Opticomm, Tiffany/LVMH

Last Week in Event SPACE ... Plus, other events, CCASS movements and Mood Spins. (This insight covers specific insights & comments...

David Blennerhassett

Hinokiya (1413 JP) Partial Tender Arb Grids & ProRation

The first insight in this event coverage was Yamada Denki Partial TOB For Hinokiya (1413 JP). In that insight I expected the shares to trade

Travis Lundy

Yamada Denki Partial TOB For Hinokiya (1413 JP)

Japan's largest electronics retailer, well-known for running large and shiny stores with more c

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/06 - SAN-A, AEON Mall, Consumer Electronics Retailers