China Specialist, Auto and Industrial Specialist

Victoria Li

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

As expected, auto chip shortage issue wasn't eased in October. And EV players started getting affected. Both Li Auto (Li.US; 2015.HK) and Xpeng (XPEV.US; 9868.HK) reported millimetre radar supply shortage at end October. And, with China's local Covid new cases increasing, auto sector's supply chain might get tightened further in short term.However, according to customers' reaction to optional delivery plans offered by Xpeng and Li Auto for customers whose new car delivery would be affected in Nov, we estimate negative impact on Xpeng would be limit. And Xpeng's new car delivery would continue increase MoM in the rest of this year.In October, Xpeng delivered 10,138 new cars, compared to Li Auto's 7,649 cars and NIO's (NIO.US) 3,667 cars.BUY Xpeng.

As expected, auto chip shortage issue wasn't eased in October. And EV players started getting affected. Both Li Auto (Li.US; 2015.HK) and Xpeng (XPEV.US; 9868.HK) reported millimetre radar supply shortage at end October. And, with China's local Covid new cases increasing, auto sector's supply chain might get tightened further in short term.However, according to customers' reaction to optional delivery plans offered by Xpeng and Li Auto for customers whose new car delivery would be affected in Nov, we estimate negative impact on Xpeng would be limit. And Xpeng's new car delivery would continue increase MoM in the rest of this year.In October, Xpeng delivered 10,138 new cars, compared to Li Auto's 7,649 cars and NIO's (NIO.US) 3,667 cars.BUY Xpeng.

China Auto: Outstanding Xpeng in Dark Moment

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.<ul type="disc">
<li>
Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.</li>
<li>
Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.</li>
</ul>

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.

Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.

Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.


Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

Equity Bottom-Up

Based on medias' non-stop recorded test drives on Xpeng P5 with NGP for City scenarios, we believe customers would be excited on what city NGP could do. Besides handling complicated scenarios without overtaking, city NGP actually achieved point-to-point intelligent driving in this test drive from where it parked to the underground parking of destination. City NGP for first batches of cities will be released in 1H2022.
Also, management announced Xpilot 4.0 (full-scenario Xpilot) will be first installed in new SUV model launching in 2022E and will be officially released in 1H2023. Xpilot 5.0 (full-redundancy software and hardware architecture) will be installed in another new model whose frame design is completed now.
To remove customers' range anxiety, Xpeng would provide first mass-production 800V high-voltage SiC platform, which could provide 200km range with 5 minutes charging. With in-house developed charging power storage technology, X-Power supercharger station would be able to charge 30 cars at a time. Xpeng started building charging stations on highways this year to cover long journey travellers. 
With foldable rotor mechanism for seamless fly-drive conversion, Xpeng targets to start mass production of flying cars in 2024E with sales price no more than Rmb1mn.  
Reiterate BUY.

Based on medias' non-stop recorded test drives on Xpeng P5 with NGP for City scenarios, we believe customers would be excited on what city NGP could do. Besides handling complicated scenarios without overtaking, city NGP actually achieved point-to-point intelligent driving in this test drive from where it parked to the underground parking of destination. City NGP for first batches of cities will be released in 1H2022.
Also, management announced Xpilot 4.0 (full-scenario Xpilot) will be first installed in new SUV model launching in 2022E and will be officially released in 1H2023. Xpilot 5.0 (full-redundancy software and hardware architecture) will be installed in another new model whose frame design is completed now.
To remove customers' range anxiety, Xpeng would provide first mass-production 800V high-voltage SiC platform, which could provide 200km range with 5 minutes charging. With in-house developed charging power storage technology, X-Power supercharger station would be able to charge 30 cars at a time. Xpeng started building charging stations on highways this year to cover long journey travellers. 
With foldable rotor mechanism for seamless fly-drive conversion, Xpeng targets to start mass production of flying cars in 2024E with sales price no more than Rmb1mn.  
Reiterate BUY.

Xpeng: Full-Scenarios NGP on the Way, Flying Vehicle Countdown

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

In this weeks recap, we look at:<ul>
<li>the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-search-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:773:1" rel="noopener">Oil Search Ltd (OSH AU)</a> merger and the impact on the S&amp;P/ASX 100 and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> </li>
<li>the spread on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-press-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9952:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP)</a> deal and potential index flows</li>
<li>the listing of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-heavy-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33808:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KS)</a> and the potential Fast Entry into the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> </li>
<li>the potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance</li>
<li>the potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance</li>
<li>the potential changes to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the December and March rebalances</li>
</ul>There are no major index events in the coming week - there were enough in the last week!There were substantial inflows to onshore China ETFs in the last week, while there was finally an outflow (albeit a small one) from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kraneshares-csi-china-internet-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28208:1" rel="noopener">KraneShares CSI China Internet Fund (KWEB US)</a>.

In this weeks recap, we look at:
the Santos Ltd (STO AU) / Oil Search Ltd (OSH AU) merger and the impact on the S&amp;P/ASX 100 and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) 
the spread on the Keppel Corp (KEP SP) / Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP) deal and potential index flows
the listing of Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KS) and the potential Fast Entry into the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) 
the potential changes to the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the December rebalance
the potential changes to the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the December rebalance
the potential changes to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the December and March rebalances
There are no major index events in the coming week - there were enough in the last week!There were substantial inflows to onshore China ETFs in the last week, while there was finally an outflow (albeit a small one) from KraneShares CSI China Internet Fund (KWEB US). 

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STO/OSH, KEP/SPH, HHI, SET50, HSTECH, HSCI

Once unveiled, Xpeng's price details of its well anticipated P5 model got some pushbacks from the market. 1) Prices are higher than expected, especially model 550E and 550P. 2) City NGP might not be available in years, which leads to question on necessity of buying NGP or even Xpeng P5. 3) G3 platform based design raises concern on car driving quality/controllability.In our view, P5 is more attractive than either A-class ICE models or EV competitor models (please see the details in our note). City NGP would be available for test drive in Oct and released in Jan-2022. And management claimed P5 would provide better driving experience although it's based on G3 platform, which would be verified by test drive soon.Reiterate BUY.

Once unveiled, Xpeng's price details of its well anticipated P5 model got some pushbacks from the market. 1) Prices are higher than expected, especially model 550E and 550P. 2) City NGP might not be available in years, which leads to question on necessity of buying NGP or even Xpeng P5. 3) G3 platform based design raises concern on car driving quality/controllability.In our view, P5 is more attractive than either A-class ICE models or EV competitor models (please see the details in our note). City NGP would be available for test drive in Oct and released in Jan-2022. And management claimed P5 would provide better driving experience although it's based on G3 platform, which would be verified by test drive soon.Reiterate BUY.

China

XPeng Inc. designs, produces, and distributes electric vehicles. The Company designs, develops, manufactures and markets smart smart electric vehicles, as well as finance, parts, and maintenance services. XPeng serves customers in China.

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XPeng (9868 HK)

China Auto: Outstanding Xpeng in Dark Moment

As expected, auto chip shortage issue wasn't eased in October. And NEV players started getting affected. Both Li Auto (Li.US; 2015.HK) and Xpeng...

Victoria Li

Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs. Financials are attractive globally, ranging...

Vermilion Research

Xpeng: Full-Scenarios NGP on the Way, Flying Vehicle Countdown

Based on medias' non-stop recorded test drives on Xpeng P5 with NGP for City scenarios, we believe customers would be excited on what city NGP...

Victoria Li

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STO/OSH, KEP/SPH, HHI, SET50, HSTECH, HSCI

This recap highlights Insights covering the index rebalance space in Asia as well as announcements that could result in index changes. We also look...

Brian Freitas

Xpeng: P5 Is Too Expensive?

Once unveiled, Xpeng's well anticipated P5 model got some pushbacks from the market. 1) Prices are higher than expected, especially model 550E and...

Victoria Li

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