Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>300274 SZ/DQ US/CSIQ US/JKS US/601615 SH/2208 HK/601012 SH: Domestic new energy installed capacity further slows downDomestic new energy installed capacity further slows down (/////////////)</li>
<li>XPEV US: Xpeng Motors' losses narrowed slightly in the first quarter of 2024 as software sales to Volkswagen increased gross profits (+)</li>
<li>1211HK/LIUS/NIOUS/XPEVUS/TSLAUS:20th week of 2024, BYD fell back a bit while Tesla recovered most of lost ground, Nio and Xiaomi had strong deliveries, and LI once again beat AITO (-/+/+/-/+)</li>
</ul>


300274 SZ/DQ US/CSIQ US/JKS US/601615 SH/2208 HK/601012 SH: Domestic new energy installed capacity further slows downDomestic new energy installed capacity further slows down (/////////////)
XPEV US: Xpeng Motors' losses narrowed slightly in the first quarter of 2024 as software sales to Volkswagen increased gross profits (+)
1211HK/LIUS/NIOUS/XPEVUS/TSLAUS:20th week of 2024, BYD fell back a bit while Tesla recovered most of lost ground, Nio and Xiaomi had strong deliveries, and LI once again beat AITO (-/+/+/-/+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]: 300274SZ/DQ US/CSIQ US/JKSUS/601615SH/2208HK/601012SH/XPEV/1211HK/LI/NIO/TSLA

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

China Merchants Expressway Net / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the June rebalance is complete and we expect 11 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 1.4% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.82bn (US$1.22bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The potential deletes have bounced off their lows as the market has recovered. But the potential passive selling could see them underperform over the next month.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the June rebalance is complete and we expect 11 changes to the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX). 
We estimate one-way turnover of 1.4% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.82bn (US$1.22bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
The potential deletes have bounced off their lows as the market has recovered. But the potential passive selling could see them underperform over the next month.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Bounce in the Potential Deletes Could Be Short Lived

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND's consecutive buying streak ended on Monday 25-March, then started again. 20 days straight net buying. NORTHBOUND saw big inflows Friday. A record day I believe.</li>
<li>HK stocks bounced VERY hard. Seemed like big allocation trade. HSCEI +8.7% vs CSI300 +1.2%. In H/A Pairs, liquid pairs saw Hs outperform their A by 4+% on average.</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND's consecutive buying streak ended on Monday 25-March, then started again. 20 days straight net buying. NORTHBOUND saw big inflows Friday. A record day I believe.
HK stocks bounced VERY hard. Seemed like big allocation trade. HSCEI +8.7% vs CSI300 +1.2%. In H/A Pairs, liquid pairs saw Hs outperform their A by 4+% on average.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Apr 2024):  Best Week in a LONG Time for Hs Vs As - Time To Get Long H/A

Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering-A / Event-Driven

Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering-A

<ul>
<li>With 85% of the review period complete, we see 11 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> in June.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 1.2% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.3bn (US$1bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes despite large flows from the National Team into ETFs tracking the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>. That support for the potential deletes will reverse.</li>
</ul>


With 85% of the review period complete, we see 11 changes for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) in June.
We estimate one-way turnover of 1.2% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.3bn (US$1bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes despite large flows from the National Team into ETFs tracking the CSI 300 Index. That support for the potential deletes will reverse.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Despite ETF Inflows

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND a net buyer <em>every day</em> since the end of Chinese New Year. NORTHBOUND a huge net buyer this week, now net buyers in size (RMB +93bn) over 7 weeks.</li>
<li>For the first time in a while, AH premia among liquid stocks fell convincingly. Narrow AH premia pairs saw Hs outperform more than wide AH premia Hs (vs As).</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND a net buyer every day since the end of Chinese New Year. NORTHBOUND a huge net buyer this week, now net buyers in size (RMB +93bn) over 7 weeks.
For the first time in a while, AH premia among liquid stocks fell convincingly. Narrow AH premia pairs saw Hs outperform more than wide AH premia Hs (vs As).


A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Mar 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Starting to Narrow

China

Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co., Ltd. manufactures wind generator sets, provides consulting service in building and operating wind generating plants, builds and operates middle-sized wind generating plants.

Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK)

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Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK)

[Blue Lotus Daily]: 300274SZ/DQ US/CSIQ US/JKSUS/601615SH/2208HK/601012SH/XPEV/1211HK/LI/NIO/TSLA

new energy installed capacity slows down, Xpeng Motors' losses narrow with increased software sales to Volkswagen, BYD falls while Tesla recovers,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Bounce in the Potential Deletes Could Be Short Lived

There could be 11 changes for the CSI300 in June with multiple days of ADV to trade on most names. The potential deletes have bounced recently but...

Brian Freitas

A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Apr 2024): Best Week in a LONG Time for Hs Vs As - Time To Get Long H/A

AH Premia have finally turned a corner. Weeks of bouncing back and forth has led to lower premia, especially on average as wider spreads narrow...

Travis Lundy

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Despite ETF Inflows

The adds have outperformed the deleted by over 10% in the last month. Coming up to the end of the review period, there could be further positioning.

Brian Freitas

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Starting to Narrow

AH Premia narrowed more on liquid narrow premia than on less liquid and wide premia. This is a new development. Energy and Utilities saw Hs rebound...

Travis Lundy

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52-week Range

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