Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Brand-Spanking New (three weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore.</li>
<li>New stimulus measures appear to be triggering FOMO on real estate stocks, but a foreshortened week, yet again, makes one wonder. There IS money being applied though.</li>
<li>I expect more measures and more buying. I am not sure I would want to be short any Hs with a deep discount to the A the next few months.</li>
</ul>


The Brand-Spanking New (three weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore.
New stimulus measures appear to be triggering FOMO on real estate stocks, but a foreshortened week, yet again, makes one wonder. There IS money being applied though.
I expect more measures and more buying. I am not sure I would want to be short any Hs with a deep discount to the A the next few months.


Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (Sep 8):  ICBC, ABC, CCB, BOC, Vanke, NCL, Rails

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We estimate the outflows to be $12.8bn in August and consumer staples, and financials sectors led the outflows.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CATL, Wuxi Wapptec, Fuyao Glass, Foxconn Industrial, CMB, Wuliangye, Mindray, Moutai, Longi Green.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
We estimate the outflows to be $12.8bn in August and consumer staples, and financials sectors led the outflows.
We highlight flows for CATL, Wuxi Wapptec, Fuyao Glass, Foxconn Industrial, CMB, Wuliangye, Mindray, Moutai, Longi Green.


Northbound Flows Monthly (August): $12.8bn Outflows

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The biggest debate in solar PV technology today is the rapid adoption of N-type solar cells (TopCon), championed by Jinko, vs. the cautious approach... </li>
<li>To prolong the life cycle of the current P-type solar cell (PERC), purposely represented by LONGi; We believe this division is misleading.</li>
<li>LONGi’s strategy is far from simply squeeze out the last penny of PERC. We believe it represents a new thinking trying to set LONGi apart of the old investment logic.</li>
</ul>


The biggest debate in solar PV technology today is the rapid adoption of N-type solar cells (TopCon), championed by Jinko, vs. the cautious approach... 
To prolong the life cycle of the current P-type solar cell (PERC), purposely represented by LONGi; We believe this division is misleading.
LONGi’s strategy is far from simply squeeze out the last penny of PERC. We believe it represents a new thinking trying to set LONGi apart of the old investment logic.


[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: In Solar PV Winners Go to One Who Count the Pennies

<ul>
<li>C1H23 solar PV and wind power capacity addition grew 154% and 72% YoY in China, significantly above 2022 growth. With the real estate fallout, renewable capex will likely stay robust. </li>
<li>We view hydrogen being constrained by its end use in the near future. Incremental renewable capex will still go to solar and wind;</li>
<li>Capacity addition is a long-term problem. But we don’t think overcapacity is an issue now. Capacity investment in upgrading technology is a plus. The more should be the better.</li>
</ul>


C1H23 solar PV and wind power capacity addition grew 154% and 72% YoY in China, significantly above 2022 growth. With the real estate fallout, renewable capex will likely stay robust. 
We view hydrogen being constrained by its end use in the near future. Incremental renewable capex will still go to solar and wind;
Capacity addition is a long-term problem. But we don’t think overcapacity is an issue now. Capacity investment in upgrading technology is a plus. The more should be the better.


[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Is There a Good Capacity War from China?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Based on the close of 21 August, there could be two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-ftse-a50-china-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:249:1" rel="noopener">iShares A50 China (2823 HK)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csop-ftse-china-a50-etf-26e3b671-fa47-4165-a12e-bf841640c5a3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23664:1" rel="noopener">CSOP A50 (HKD) (2822 HK)</a> in September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nari-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4364:1" rel="noopener">NARI Technology Co Ltd A (600406 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csc-financial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27823:1" rel="noopener">CSC Financial (601066 CH)</a> should replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongwei-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14405:1" rel="noopener">Tongwei Co Ltd A (600438 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shaanxi-coal-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11254:1" rel="noopener">Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225 CH)</a> in the ETFs.</li>
<li>There are couple of stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from the ETFs. Plus there are cash and carry positions that will need to be rebalanced, adding to flow.</li>
</ul>


Based on the close of 21 August, there could be two changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK)/ CSOP A50 (HKD) (2822 HK) in September.

NARI Technology Co Ltd A (600406 CH) and CSC Financial (601066 CH) should replace Tongwei Co Ltd A (600438 CH) and Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225 CH) in the ETFs.
There are couple of stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from the ETFs. Plus there are cash and carry positions that will need to be rebalanced, adding to flow.


Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Expected in September

China

LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures and sells silicon rods and silicon wafers. The Company's main products include 6 inch, 6.5 inch and 8 inch monocrystalline silicon rods and wafers.

LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012 CH)

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LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012 CH)

Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (Sep 8): ICBC, ABC, CCB, BOC, Vanke, NCL, Rails

The fourth week of the A/H Monitor and the last three weeks have seen decent returns. Hs outperformed As decently on a short week. Exposure to...

Travis Lundy

Northbound Flows Monthly (August): $12.8bn Outflows

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for August and highlight flows for CATL, Wuxi Wapptec, Fuyao Glass, Foxconn Industrial, CMB,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: In Solar PV Winners Go to One Who Count the Pennies

LONGi’s strategy is far from simply squeeze out the last penny of PERC. We believe it represents a new thinking trying to set LONGi apart of the...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Is There a Good Capacity War from China?

Capacity addition is a long-term problem. But we don’t think overcapacity is an issue now. Capacity investment in upgrading technology is a plus....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Expected in September

There should be 2 changes for 2822/2823 HK in September. Impact of passive trading will be 0.5-1.5x ADV and could be higher due to cash and carry...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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