HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Latest industry sales volume for wheel loader and excavator still point to a challenging period for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a> even the stock trades on inexpensive multiples. We think that the tough industry outlook in the near term will keep its valuation depressed, until there is a better YoY volume comparison after 1Q22. Based on industry figures, wheel loader and excavator sales volume was down by 12.3% and 30.6% YoY in Oct, respectively.Domestic market has experienced more significant pressure, and has underperformed overseas market. Even with a sharp rise in special purpose bond issuance by local governments in 3Q21, it will take time to translate into the end-demand. We still consider Lonking a quality company with solid financial position, but it is too early to jump back in. We also see risk of lowering dividend payout ratio on the back of a weaker result in FY21F.

Latest industry sales volume for wheel loader and excavator still point to a challenging period for Lonking Holdings (3339 HK) even the stock trades on inexpensive multiples. We think that the tough industry outlook in the near term will keep its valuation depressed, until there is a better YoY volume comparison after 1Q22. Based on industry figures, wheel loader and excavator sales volume was down by 12.3% and 30.6% YoY in Oct, respectively.Domestic market has experienced more significant pressure, and has underperformed overseas market. Even with a sharp rise in special purpose bond issuance by local governments in 3Q21, it will take time to translate into the end-demand. We still consider Lonking a quality company with solid financial position, but it is too early to jump back in. We also see risk of lowering dividend payout ratio on the back of a weaker result in FY21F.

We think the 1H21 result of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a> is somewhat disappointing as the good volume growth is unable to translate into a corresponding profit improvement. Its earnings only edged up 0.1% despite a 25.8% increase in revenue, indicating that cost-induced margin pressure is higher than expected.In our view, the market is likely to react negatively to the result. However, its low valuations (5.2x PER and 0.82x P/B), decent ROE of 16.7% and strong financial position (net cash and investment equals to 57% of the share price) will serve as buffers for significant downside on share price. That said, we think it will take time for the market to see how Lonking can recover its margin and, in the meantime, share price performance in the near-term is likely to be muted.

We think the 1H21 result of Lonking Holdings (3339 HK) is somewhat disappointing as the good volume growth is unable to translate into a corresponding profit improvement. Its earnings only edged up 0.1% despite a 25.8% increase in revenue, indicating that cost-induced margin pressure is higher than expected.In our view, the market is likely to react negatively to the result. However, its low valuations (5.2x PER and 0.82x P/B), decent ROE of 16.7% and strong financial position (net cash and investment equals to 57% of the share price) will serve as buffers for significant downside on share price. That said, we think it will take time for the market to see how Lonking can recover its margin and, in the meantime, share price performance in the near-term is likely to be muted.

Lonking (3339 HK): Disappointed Us with Worse-Than-Expected Margin in 1H21

We spoke with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a> following its recent share price weakness. Operationally, sales volume for 5M21 stayed very solid, with wheel loader and forklift well ahead of the industry growth rates. May figures are, however, weaker than industry, but we do not think this is a concern. Moreover, for 5M21, its forklift sales already reached more than 55% of its full-year target, suggesting better-than-expected performance in this booming segment.It is true that higher cost will erode 1H21 percentage gross margin, but the strong volume growth, price increase and cost containment measures should limit the impact on the overall gross profit. We think earnings growth for the next three years will be stable, but it will still generate over 20% of ROE and sit on net cash (including financial investments) equals to over 60% of its current share price. Our projections suggested the Lonking is trading on attractive 4.2x PER, 0.84x P/B and 14.3% dividend yield for FY21.

We spoke with Lonking Holdings (3339 HK) following its recent share price weakness. Operationally, sales volume for 5M21 stayed very solid, with wheel loader and forklift well ahead of the industry growth rates. May figures are, however, weaker than industry, but we do not think this is a concern. Moreover, for 5M21, its forklift sales already reached more than 55% of its full-year target, suggesting better-than-expected performance in this booming segment.It is true that higher cost will erode 1H21 percentage gross margin, but the strong volume growth, price increase and cost containment measures should limit the impact on the overall gross profit. We think earnings growth for the next three years will be stable, but it will still generate over 20% of ROE and sit on net cash (including financial investments) equals to over 60% of its current share price. Our projections suggested the Lonking is trading on attractive 4.2x PER, 0.84x P/B and 14.3% dividend yield for FY21.

Lonking (3339 HK): Streaming Ahead Despite Turbulence

We do not think a slower reported industry excavator and wheel loader sales growth in Apr is a concern to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a>. In fact, the slowdown to 2.5% and 9% YoY, respectively, compared with 85% and 67% YoY in 1Q21, is primarily driven by high base for comparison a year ago as pandemic restrained demand is released.Relative to Apr 2019, the Apr 2021 unit sales still grew by impressive levels of 63.9% and 44.7%, respectively, providing us comfort on the health of underlying demand. Meanwhile, it is encouraging to see the sustained strength in export despite the continued negative impacts of COVID-19 outside China. We still expect a promising year for Lonking in FY21, and its valuation metrics remain very undemanding.

We do not think a slower reported industry excavator and wheel loader sales growth in Apr is a concern to Lonking Holdings (3339 HK). In fact, the slowdown to 2.5% and 9% YoY, respectively, compared with 85% and 67% YoY in 1Q21, is primarily driven by high base for comparison a year ago as pandemic restrained demand is released.Relative to Apr 2019, the Apr 2021 unit sales still grew by impressive levels of 63.9% and 44.7%, respectively, providing us comfort on the health of underlying demand. Meanwhile, it is encouraging to see the sustained strength in export despite the continued negative impacts of COVID-19 outside China. We still expect a promising year for Lonking in FY21, and its valuation metrics remain very undemanding.  

Lonking (3339 HK): Is There a Slowdown in the Industry? Our Answer Is No.

Demand for construction machinery stayed very resilient in Mar, with 60% YoY growth for industry excavator sales and 53% growth for wheel loader. These figures concluded an extremely solid 1Q21 in the history of the industry, as sales was up 85% and 60.7% for the quarter. We believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a> is a direct beneficiary of the good momentum.Initial figures from Lonking suggested that the company is tracking closely the industry sales for excavator but outperformed on wheel loader sales significantly in 1Q21. This reversed the trend of underperformance in last year, and the market should take this positively. In our view, at 5.3x PER, 1.1x P/B and 11.3% dividend yield for FY21, together with an ROE of 21.5% and net cash of HK$0.90/share, who can afford not to take a look on Lonking?

Demand for construction machinery stayed very resilient in Mar, with 60% YoY growth for industry excavator sales and 53% growth for wheel loader. These figures concluded an extremely solid 1Q21 in the history of the industry, as sales was up 85% and 60.7% for the quarter. We believe Lonking Holdings (3339 HK) is a direct beneficiary of the good momentum.Initial figures from Lonking suggested that the company is tracking closely the industry sales for excavator but outperformed on wheel loader sales significantly in 1Q21. This reversed the trend of underperformance in last year, and the market should take this positively. In our view, at 5.3x PER, 1.1x P/B and 11.3% dividend yield for FY21, together with an ROE of 21.5% and net cash of HK$0.90/share, who can afford not to take a look on Lonking?

Lonking (3339 HK): 1Q21 Industry Figures Blown Through the Roof

China

XCMG Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets a variety of construction machinery including road construction machinery, scrapers, concrete mixers and other related products.

XCMG Construction Machinery A (000425 CH)

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XCMG Construction Machinery A (000425 CH)

Lonking (3339 HK): Still Too Early

Weak industry volume for wheel loader and excavator will continue to weigh on Lonking, despite the retreat in share price and low valuations....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Lonking (3339 HK): Disappointed Us with Worse-Than-Expected Margin in 1H21

Lonking's weakened profit in 1H21 due to heavier-than-expected margin contraction is expected to be taken negatively by the market, though the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Lonking (3339 HK): Streaming Ahead Despite Turbulence

Lonking achieved good volume growth for wheel loader and forklift in 5M21, and we think price increase, volume growth and cost containment can...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Lonking (3339 HK): Is There a Slowdown in the Industry? Our Answer Is No.

We do not interpret the slowdown in Apr excavator and wheel loader sales as a reflection of weaker underlying demand. Instead, this is primarily...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Lonking (3339 HK): 1Q21 Industry Figures Blown Through the Roof

While industry construction machinery sales are strong, the more important message is that Lonking has been tracking well against the figures and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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