HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a>'s demand should pick up in 2H24 supported by the government's "Action plan to promote large-scale equipment renewals and consumer goods trade-ins". </li>
<li>Industry volume sales have already witnessed a narrower YoY decline in Mar, with solid exports of wheel loaders and domestic sales of excavators.</li>
<li>After going ex- in late-May, its PER will drop to 7.0x and yield will rise to 6.6%. Net cash of HK$1.56/share is more than fully cover its share price.</li>
</ul>



Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)'s demand should pick up in 2H24 supported by the government's "Action plan to promote large-scale equipment renewals and consumer goods trade-ins". 
Industry volume sales have already witnessed a narrower YoY decline in Mar, with solid exports of wheel loaders and domestic sales of excavators.
After going ex- in late-May, its PER will drop to 7.0x and yield will rise to 6.6%. Net cash of HK$1.56/share is more than fully cover its share price.


<ul>
<li>After a poor FY22, 1H23 will stay challenging for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a>. However, we expect pick-up in business momentum going forward, and export is a major growth driver.</li>
<li>Gross margin rebounded HoH and YoY in 2H22, and Lonking maintained good operating cost control. Recovery of equity market suggests potential big positive swing in investment income. </li>
<li>Including investment portfolio, 92% of the current market capitalisation is net cash, providing solid downside buffer. Its 6.5x PER, 9.2% yield and 0.52x P/B are very attractive valuations.</li>
</ul>


After a poor FY22, 1H23 will stay challenging for Lonking Holdings (3339 HK). However, we expect pick-up in business momentum going forward, and export is a major growth driver.
Gross margin rebounded HoH and YoY in 2H22, and Lonking maintained good operating cost control. Recovery of equity market suggests potential big positive swing in investment income. 
Including investment portfolio, 92% of the current market capitalisation is net cash, providing solid downside buffer. Its 6.5x PER, 9.2% yield and 0.52x P/B are very attractive valuations.


Lonking (3339 HK): Back to Attractive Zone

<ul>
<li>Share price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a> has seen muted reaction to weak industry figures recently but it is still unexciting in near-term, based on our catch-up with the company. </li>
<li>It has underperformed industry sales volume in 5M22 across all product categories, with that for wheel loader behind 4pp and excavator by 10pp. Forklift sales were down 18% YoY. </li>
<li>Both gross margin and investment income are set to contract in this year, making it highly likely to see significant earnings downgrade after 1H22 result announcement in Aug. </li>
</ul>


Share price of Lonking Holdings (3339 HK) has seen muted reaction to weak industry figures recently but it is still unexciting in near-term, based on our catch-up with the company. 
It has underperformed industry sales volume in 5M22 across all product categories, with that for wheel loader behind 4pp and excavator by 10pp. Forklift sales were down 18% YoY. 
Both gross margin and investment income are set to contract in this year, making it highly likely to see significant earnings downgrade after 1H22 result announcement in Aug. 


Lonking (3339 HK): Not Out of the Woods Yet

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The €500bn infrastructure plan proposed by Friedrich Merz, German Chancellor-in-waiting, is scheduled for parliament approval on 18 Mar.</li><li>The approval of the plan has become likely (2/3 is needed) after winning support from the Greens last week.</li><li>In HK &amp; A share market, Weichai Power (2338 HK / 000338 CH, BUY), being the controlling shareholder of KION Group (KGX GR, NR) which is the major industrial truck manufacturer in Europe, will likely become a beneficiary. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The €500bn infrastructure plan proposed by Friedrich Merz, German Chancellor-in-waiting, is scheduled for parliament approval on 18 Mar.The approval of the plan has become likely (2/3 is needed) after winning support from the Greens last week.In HK &amp; A share market, Weichai Power (2338 HK / 000338 CH, BUY), being the controlling shareholder of KION Group (KGX GR, NR) which is the major industrial truck manufacturer in Europe, will likely become a beneficiary. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Who Are the Potential Beneficiaries of Germany’s Mega Infrastructure Investment Plan?

<ul><li>China Construction Machinery Association (CCMA) released a full set of construction machinery sales data for Feb.</li><li>Unlike the stronger-than-expected earth-moving machinery (excavator and wheel loader) data that released last week (CMBI report: link), the picture for other machinery was unclear.</li><li>Forklifts and truck cranes saw growth in both domestic and overseas markets, while tower cranes (highly related to property) / aerial work platforms (AWPs) saw 33%/24% decline in China market despite a low base. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Construction Machinery Association (CCMA) released a full set of construction machinery sales data for Feb.Unlike the stronger-than-expected earth-moving machinery (excavator and wheel loader) data that released last week (CMBI report: link), the picture for other machinery was unclear.Forklifts and truck cranes saw growth in both domestic and overseas markets, while tower cranes (highly related to property) / aerial work platforms (AWPs) saw 33%/24% decline in China market despite a low base. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Capital Goods - Non-earth-moving machinery sales data mixed in Feb

China

XCMG Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets a variety of construction machinery including road construction machinery, scrapers, concrete mixers and other related products.

XCMG Construction Machinery A (000425 CH)

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XCMG Construction Machinery A (000425 CH)

Lonking (3339 HK): Policy Tailwind

Government policy support and improving industry demand should drive a potential uptick in sales for Lonking in 2H24. Attractive valuations and a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Lonking (3339 HK): Back to Attractive Zone

We turned bullish on Lonking on 17 Apr, and since then, the stock has performed well. It has just issued a positive profit alert with 91-158% YoY...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Lonking (3339 HK): Not Out of the Woods Yet

Lonking may disappoint the market by wide margin when it reports 1H22 result in Aug. Sales of its key product categories have been behind the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Who Are the Potential Beneficiaries of Germany’s Mega Infrastructure Investment Plan?

The €500bn infrastructure plan proposed by Friedrich Merz, German Chancellor-in-waiting, is scheduled for parliament approval on 18 Mar.

CMB International

Capital Goods - Non-earth-moving machinery sales data mixed in Feb

We continue to favour earth-moving machinery which is the first to recover in both the project-level cycle and replacement cycle.

CMB International

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