Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Microstrategy Inc Cl A / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside. Also said one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common</li>
<li>And said to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers</li>
<li>The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. This has been a stellar buy area</li>
</ul>


In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside. Also said one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common
And said to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers
The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. This has been a stellar buy area


Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

Ategrity Specialty Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>For the year ended December 31, 2024, they wrote $437.0 million in gross written premiums, representing a compound annual growth rate of 28.4% over the last two years.</li>
<li>We anticipate this company to set terms (share size, price range) and debut in the second half of April.</li>
<li>Zimmer Financial Services Group LLC (“ZFSG”) will continue to be a majority owner of Ategrity following this offering. </li>
</ul>


For the year ended December 31, 2024, they wrote $437.0 million in gross written premiums, representing a compound annual growth rate of 28.4% over the last two years.
We anticipate this company to set terms (share size, price range) and debut in the second half of April.
Zimmer Financial Services Group LLC (“ZFSG”) will continue to be a majority owner of Ategrity following this offering. 


Ategrity Specialty Holdings (ASIC): Peeking at the Prospectus of the Next Specialty Insurer IPO

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Equity Bottom-Up

Skyward Specialty Insurance Gr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>One of the areas of fintech innovations, seeing significant growth is insurtech. Big data, AI, and IoT have enabled innovations in customer experience, risk assessment, and personalized products.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skyward-specialty-insurance-gr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37180:1" rel="noopener">Skyward Specialty Insurance Gr (SKWD US)</a>'s focus on underserved and complex markets, with unique risks, should give the company better growth and margins runway. </li>
<li>Integration of proprietary  and collaborative technologies to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience in specific niches makes Skyward very competitive in admitted and  specialty insurance segments. </li>
</ul>


One of the areas of fintech innovations, seeing significant growth is insurtech. Big data, AI, and IoT have enabled innovations in customer experience, risk assessment, and personalized products.

Skyward Specialty Insurance Gr (SKWD US)'s focus on underserved and complex markets, with unique risks, should give the company better growth and margins runway. 
Integration of proprietary  and collaborative technologies to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience in specific niches makes Skyward very competitive in admitted and  specialty insurance segments. 


Skyward Specialty Insurance: Leveraging Insurtech for Growth in Underserved Markets

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we anticipated would continue into the early part of 2024. </li>
<li>Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. We see small- and mid-caps resuming uptrends $IWM $VXF</li>
<li>Downgrading Staples (XLP) to underweight after brief stint at market weight. Highlighting several buys within Financials: Property &amp; Casualty Insurance BRK.B, PGR, CB, TRV, ALL, CINF, ERIE, and more</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we anticipated would continue into the early part of 2024. 
Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. We see small- and mid-caps resuming uptrends $IWM $VXF
Downgrading Staples (XLP) to underweight after brief stint at market weight. Highlighting several buys within Financials: Property &amp; Casualty Insurance BRK.B, PGR, CB, TRV, ALL, CINF, ERIE, and more


Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

<ul>
<li>We've discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it's a normal pullback</li>
<li>Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).</li>
<li>The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.</li>
</ul>


We've discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it's a normal pullback
Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).
The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.


Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

United States

W. R. Berkley Corporation, an insurance holding company, conducts operations in various segments of the property casualty insurance business.  Segments include specialty lines of insurance, alternative markets, reinsurance, regional property casualty insurance, and international.

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Wr Berkley Corp (WRB US)

Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

Major Low Likely in Place on $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600. 5670-5718 is short-term gap support; Power in hands of bulls if...

Vermilion Research

Ategrity Specialty Holdings (ASIC): Peeking at the Prospectus of the Next Specialty Insurer IPO

Ategrity shows strong growth with $437.0 million in premiums. ASIC is set to debut in April with majority ownership by ZFSG.

IPO Boutique

Skyward Specialty Insurance: Leveraging Insurtech for Growth in Underserved Markets

Skyward Specialty’s focus on underserved, niche markets, with disciplined underwriting and innovative use of technology, positions it to drive...

Pyari Menon

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- and Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends $IWM $RTY $VXF; Downgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Underweight...

Vermilion Research

Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

Our confidence in our outlook is growing: as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, most signs point to this being a normal...

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

Major Low Likely in Place on $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600. 5670-5718 is short-term gap support; Power in hands of bulls if...

Vermilion Research

Ategrity Specialty Holdings (ASIC): Peeking at the Prospectus of the Next Specialty Insurer IPO

​Ategrity shows strong growth with $437.0 million in premiums. ASIC is set to debut in April with majority ownership by ZFSG.

IPO Boutique

Skyward Specialty Insurance: Leveraging Insurtech for Growth in Underserved Markets

Skyward Specialty’s focus on underserved, niche markets, with disciplined underwriting and innovative use of technology, positions it to drive...

Pyari Menon

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- and Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends $IWM $RTY $VXF; Downgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Underweight...

Vermilion Research

Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

Our confidence in our outlook is growing: as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, most signs point to this being a normal...

Vermilion Research

Ategrity shows strong growth with $437.0 million in premiums. ASIC is set to debut in April with majority ownership by ZFSG.