Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Last year the Japanese fashion market contracted below ¥16 trillion for the first time in more than a decade and this year is proving much, much worse.In the last big crises – the 2008 financial shock and 2011 triple disasters – demand also fell dramatically and then recovered. But this time is different: as well as a fall in demand, the Covid-19 crisis has also led to a marked fall in supply.But there is some good news. Above all, Japanese are not travelling either at home or abroad and they are also eating out less.In the seven months to July, the average working household had cumulatively saved a net ¥1.25 million, more than 11 months in both 2018 and 2019 and more than an entire year before 2018.Suddenly wallets are full, which could mean more money to spend on treats – good news for luxury but also any brand or retailing offering something fun to divert from the all bleak news.While the short-term outlook remains dark, the medium-term should see both a return to a more stable trading environment and something of a splurge too as people express their relief that it’s all over.The following is a complete review of the Japanese apparel/fashion sector including rankings of the top 100 retailers by sales, top by profit, sales growth, and store openings/closures.This insight is labelled bullish because the Japanese apparel/fashion sector will rebound from the current crisis although the long-term outlook for this sector is stagnant stability rather than significant growth. However, within this, there are significant growth stocks as detailed below.

Last year the Japanese fashion market contracted below ¥16 trillion for the first time in more than a decade and this year is proving much, much worse.In the last big crises – the 2008 financial shock and 2011 triple disasters – demand also fell dramatically and then recovered. But this time is different: as well as a fall in demand, the Covid-19 crisis has also led to a marked fall in supply.But there is some good news. Above all, Japanese are not travelling either at home or abroad and they are also eating out less.In the seven months to July, the average working household had cumulatively saved a net ¥1.25 million, more than 11 months in both 2018 and 2019 and more than an entire year before 2018.Suddenly wallets are full, which could mean more money to spend on treats – good news for luxury but also any brand or retailing offering something fun to divert from the all bleak news.While the short-term outlook remains dark, the medium-term should see both a return to a more stable trading environment and something of a splurge too as people express their relief that it’s all over.The following is a complete review of the Japanese apparel/fashion sector including rankings of the top 100 retailers by sales, top by profit, sales growth, and store openings/closures.This insight is labelled bullish because the Japanese apparel/fashion sector will rebound from the current crisis although the long-term outlook for this sector is stagnant stability rather than significant growth. However, within this, there are significant growth stocks as detailed below.

Japan Fashion Retailing Complete Review 2019-20: Pain Now but a Recovery Is Certain

Equity Bottom-Up

The big five apparel firms will have closed 3,100 stores by the end of this year so <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanyo-shokai-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12308:1" rel="noopener">Sanyo Shokai (8011 JP)'s</a> announcement that it will close ‘just’ 160 looks relatively positive.Unfortunately, the ex-Burberry licensee continues to leak red ink with little sign of respite. More stores and brands will have to close.

The big five apparel firms will have closed 3,100 stores by the end of this year so Sanyo Shokai (8011 JP)'s announcement that it will close ‘just’ 160 looks relatively positive.Unfortunately, the ex-Burberry licensee continues to leak red ink with little sign of respite. More stores and brands will have to close.

Big Apparel in Trouble: Sanyo Shokai to Close 160 Stores

Apparel groups are in trouble, as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renown-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10158:1" rel="noopener">Renown Inc (3606 JP)'s</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/big-apparel-in-trouble-renown-finally-goes-under" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> bankruptcy</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanyo-shokai-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12308:1" rel="noopener">Sanyo Shokai (8011 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/big-apparel-in-trouble-sanyo-shokai-slashes-stores-and-fights-off-shareholder-pressure" target="_blank" rel="noopener">’s boardroom battles</a> exemplify, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/world-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27437:1" rel="noopener">World Co Ltd (3612 JP)</a> always claimed it was in better shape – particularly just before relisting.
The Kobe-based firm has now admitted even its shopping mall chains need fixing, with a raft of closures due soon but, unlike competitors, it does have real growth businesses including its new Off Price chain, &amp;Bridge and is in much better shape than competitors – but all things are relative, with the apparel sector showing clear signs of dysfunction with more closures and bankruptcies to follow.
Their demise will leave more room for the better-performing retailers and brands.

Apparel groups are in trouble, as Renown Inc (3606 JP)'s bankruptcy and Sanyo Shokai (8011 JP)’s boardroom battles exemplify, but World Co Ltd (3612 JP) always claimed it was in better shape – particularly just before relisting.
The Kobe-based firm has now admitted even its shopping mall chains need fixing, with a raft of closures due soon but, unlike competitors, it does have real growth businesses including its new Off Price chain, &amp;Bridge and is in much better shape than competitors – but all things are relative, with the apparel sector showing clear signs of dysfunction with more closures and bankruptcies to follow.
Their demise will leave more room for the better-performing retailers and brands.

Japan's Big Apparel Trouble: World to Close 350 More Stores

Fashion is the fastest growing and largest category in the e-commerce channel in 2018. Fashion items are easy to stock and ship and low cost.Consumers still like to see, feel and try on their fashion purchases, but the ease and lower cost of shipping means that it is also an excellent category to shift to omnichannel, integrating customer touchpoints across promotion, through product trial, purchase and delivery.This is exactly what is now happening. All the major brands are selling online in some form, mostly through one or more of the big online malls, including the one dedicated fashion mall, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a>, but more and more are now also selling directly online, with the best ones integrating online sales with their stores.The following is an in-depth review of the fashion e-commerce sector including market value and penetration rates and rankings of:<ul>
<li>The leading fashion vendors online by sales</li>
<li>Fastest-growing online sales</li>
<li>Penetration rates for online vs. total sales</li>
<li>Penetration rates for direct online sales via own stores rather than major online platforms.</li>
</ul>

Fashion is the fastest growing and largest category in the e-commerce channel in 2018. Fashion items are easy to stock and ship and low cost.Consumers still like to see, feel and try on their fashion purchases, but the ease and lower cost of shipping means that it is also an excellent category to shift to omnichannel, integrating customer touchpoints across promotion, through product trial, purchase and delivery.This is exactly what is now happening. All the major brands are selling online in some form, mostly through one or more of the big online malls, including the one dedicated fashion mall, ZOZO Inc (3092 JP), but more and more are now also selling directly online, with the best ones integrating online sales with their stores.The following is an in-depth review of the fashion e-commerce sector including market value and penetration rates and rankings of:
The leading fashion vendors online by sales
Fastest-growing online sales
Penetration rates for online vs. total sales
Penetration rates for direct online sales via own stores rather than major online platforms.


Japan Fashion E-Commerce: Direct Investment by Retailers on the Rise

As reported in an earlier insight (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/big-apparel-in-trouble-onward-to-close-1-400-stores" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Big Apparel in Trouble: Onward to Close 1,400 stores</a>), Japan's big apparel firms were already fighting for survival before March and now even more so.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanyo-shokai-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12308:1" rel="noopener">Sanyo Shokai (8011 JP)</a> is in worse shape than most because it lost the license for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/burberry-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21849:1" rel="noopener">Burberry (BRBY LN)</a> in 2015 and not only failed to set up replacement licenses or brands in the years leading up to that loss, but has failed spectacularly ever since.
Not surprisingly, a US shareholder, RMB Capital, has been putting pressure on the apparel firm to get its house in order after years of empty promises about profit recovery. At the shareholder's meeting in late May, Japanese shareholders closed ranks, however.
While Sanyo Shokai may have won this round, in the longer-term battle for survival, it looks worryingly vulnerable to the same fate as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renown-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10158:1" rel="noopener">Renown Inc (3606 JP). </a>

As reported in an earlier insight (Big Apparel in Trouble: Onward to Close 1,400 stores), Japan's big apparel firms were already fighting for survival before March and now even more so.
Sanyo Shokai (8011 JP) is in worse shape than most because it lost the license for Burberry (BRBY LN) in 2015 and not only failed to set up replacement licenses or brands in the years leading up to that loss, but has failed spectacularly ever since.
Not surprisingly, a US shareholder, RMB Capital, has been putting pressure on the apparel firm to get its house in order after years of empty promises about profit recovery. At the shareholder's meeting in late May, Japanese shareholders closed ranks, however.
While Sanyo Shokai may have won this round, in the longer-term battle for survival, it looks worryingly vulnerable to the same fate as Renown Inc (3606 JP). 

Big Apparel in Trouble: Sanyo Shokai Slashes Stores and Fights off Shareholder Pressure

Japan

World Co., Ltd. designs, manufactures, and distributes apparels. The Company produces women's garments, men's garments, children's garments, and other products. World also operates investment businesses.

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World Co Ltd (3612 JP)

Japan Fashion Retailing Complete Review 2019-20: Pain Now but a Recovery Is Certain

The following is a complete, in-depth review of the Japanese apparel/fashion sector covering key trends, rankings of the top 100 by sales and top...

Michael Causton

Big Apparel in Trouble: Sanyo Shokai to Close 160 Stores

All Japan's big apparel firms are in trouble but none more so than Sanyo Shokai. It will close 160 stores this year but that is not enough.

Michael Causton

Japan's Big Apparel Trouble: World to Close 350 More Stores

Apparel groups are in trouble, as Renown’s bankruptcy (see Page 8) and Sanyo Shokai’s boardroom battles exemplify, but World always claimed it was...

Michael Causton

Japan Fashion E-Commerce: Direct Investment by Retailers on the Rise

Fashion is the fastest growing and largest category in the e-commerce channel in 2018. Fashion items are easy to stock and ship and low...

Michael Causton

Big Apparel in Trouble: Sanyo Shokai Slashes Stores and Fights off Shareholder Pressure

As reported in an earlier insight (Big Apparel in Trouble: Onward to Close 1,400 stores), Japan's big apparel firms were already fighting for...

Michael Causton

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52-week Range

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