Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

Lotte Non Life Insurance Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>It was reported in numerous local media that the sale process of Lotte Non Life Insurance Co (000400 KS) could start in October 2023.</li>
<li>There are four companies including Shinhan Financial (055550 KS), Hana Financial (086790 KS), Woori Financial Group (316140 KS), and Kyobo Life Insurance that may be interested in acquiring Lotte Non-Life Insurance. </li>
<li>Minority shareholders are not likely to benefit from this potential huge management M&amp;A premium of Lotte Non-Life Insurance. </li>
</ul>


It was reported in numerous local media that the sale process of Lotte Non Life Insurance Co (000400 KS) could start in October 2023.
There are four companies including Shinhan Financial (055550 KS), Hana Financial (086790 KS), Woori Financial Group (316140 KS), and Kyobo Life Insurance that may be interested in acquiring Lotte Non-Life Insurance. 
Minority shareholders are not likely to benefit from this potential huge management M&amp;A premium of Lotte Non-Life Insurance. 


Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The KOSPI 200 index last week closed down (CC=-1). This particular pattern is very bullish: 78% of the time the index closes the week up after -1 week down.</li>
<li>The index has been stuck sideways between 348 and 330 for weeks, we still see a buy-the-dip opportunity to ride the continuation of the Bull run from here.</li>
<li>
Main support area to go LONG, based on the Market Reversal Matrix's readings, is between 337 and 335. Time+space estimated probability of success is between 64% and 76%.</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI 200 index last week closed down (CC=-1). This particular pattern is very bullish: 78% of the time the index closes the week up after -1 week down.
The index has been stuck sideways between 348 and 330 for weeks, we still see a buy-the-dip opportunity to ride the continuation of the Bull run from here.

Main support area to go LONG, based on the Market Reversal Matrix's readings, is between 337 and 335. Time+space estimated probability of success is between 64% and 76%.


EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY Trend Analysis

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Daewoo Shipping &amp; Marine Engineering early in May 2023 agreed to takeover by Hanwah Group</li>
<li>Hanwah Ocean, the re-named entity, reported financial stress for years, a lumpy NPL for banks</li>
<li>C&amp;P CIQ data suggests that all four major Korean banks are creditors to Hanwah Ocean</li>
</ul>


Daewoo Shipping &amp; Marine Engineering early in May 2023 agreed to takeover by Hanwah Group
Hanwah Ocean, the re-named entity, reported financial stress for years, a lumpy NPL for banks
C&amp;P CIQ data suggests that all four major Korean banks are creditors to Hanwah Ocean


Korea's Large Banks & Hanwah Ocean - Credit Reversals or Overhang?

<ul>
<li>We believe that the nine Korean banks (on average) are likely to continue to underperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months due to the continued rising delinquencies.</li>
<li>The major reasons for higher loans and cards delinquency ratios include higher interest rate burdens, higher inflation rates, inverted yield curve, weakening economy, and pressures on disposable income.</li>
<li>The delinquency ratios of the largest nine banks in Korea all worsened in 1Q 2023 (for both banks and credit cards).</li>
</ul>


We believe that the nine Korean banks (on average) are likely to continue to underperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months due to the continued rising delinquencies.
The major reasons for higher loans and cards delinquency ratios include higher interest rate burdens, higher inflation rates, inverted yield curve, weakening economy, and pressures on disposable income.
The delinquency ratios of the largest nine banks in Korea all worsened in 1Q 2023 (for both banks and credit cards).


Korean Banks: Sharp Rise in Delinquency Ratios in 1Q 2023 & Inverted Yield Curve

<ul>
<li>The new head of Woori Financial Group (316140 KS) Chairman Lim Jong-Ryong recently revealed his willingness to acquire a major/mid-scale securities company.</li>
<li>Among these potential acquisition candidates, Samsung Securities is considered to be the most likely securities companies that could be purchased by Woori Financial Group.</li>
<li>In the long term (next 2-3 years), there is a good probability that Woori Financial Group could acquire Samsung Securities, which is not a core business of the Samsung Group.</li>
</ul>


The new head of Woori Financial Group (316140 KS) Chairman Lim Jong-Ryong recently revealed his willingness to acquire a major/mid-scale securities company.
Among these potential acquisition candidates, Samsung Securities is considered to be the most likely securities companies that could be purchased by Woori Financial Group.
In the long term (next 2-3 years), there is a good probability that Woori Financial Group could acquire Samsung Securities, which is not a core business of the Samsung Group.


Will Woori Financial Group Acquire Samsung Securities?

South Korea

Woori Financial Group Inc. provides commercial banking services. The Company offers deposit services, loan services, bill services, settlement services, credit card, international, online banking, and other related services. Woori Financial Group also operates banking and retail banking businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Woori Financial Group (316140 KS)

Lotte Non-Life Insurance: Who Will Buy?

There are four companies including Shinhan Financial, Hana Financial, Woori Financial Group, and Kyobo Life Insurance that may be interested in...

Douglas Kim

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY Trend Analysis

The KOSPI 200 Index got stuck in a range during the last few weeks, but it may be readying to resume its Bull run. Read the latest Market Reversal...

Nico Rosti

Korea's Large Banks & Hanwah Ocean - Credit Reversals or Overhang?

Hanwah Ocean recapitalization may suggest NPL benefits for Korea's largest banks, but other deterioration can overshadow this one single exposure....

Daniel Tabbush

Korean Banks: Sharp Rise in Delinquency Ratios in 1Q 2023 & Inverted Yield Curve

We believe that the nine Korean banks (on average) are likely to continue to underperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months due to the continued rising...

Douglas Kim

Will Woori Financial Group Acquire Samsung Securities?

In the long term (next 2-3 years), there is a good probability that Woori Financial Group could acquire Samsung Securities, which is not a core...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)