Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>More restrictive Fed policy than expected is disproportionately hitting small/mid-caps which are more sensitive to higher interest rates. This suggests we could see further consolidation for small- and mid-caps.</li>
<li>Large-Caps (SPX, Nasdaq 100, DJI) remain bullish on continued strength from mega-caps (AMZN, META, NVDA,MSFT). Our bullish outlook remains appropriate, but we discuss what would lead us to get cautious.</li>
<li>1-, 2-, and 10-year Treasury yields testing resistance today and failing. U.S. dollar (DXY) also testing key resistance at $104.60. We also push back on the bad breadth argument (again).</li>
</ul>


More restrictive Fed policy than expected is disproportionately hitting small/mid-caps which are more sensitive to higher interest rates. This suggests we could see further consolidation for small- and mid-caps.
Large-Caps (SPX, Nasdaq 100, DJI) remain bullish on continued strength from mega-caps (AMZN, META, NVDA,MSFT). Our bullish outlook remains appropriate, but we discuss what would lead us to get cautious.
1-, 2-, and 10-year Treasury yields testing resistance today and failing. U.S. dollar (DXY) also testing key resistance at $104.60. We also push back on the bad breadth argument (again).


Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY); What Would Lead Us to Get Cautious?

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Our monthly WTR restaurant and retail report focuses on stock performance, short interest, an outlook for restaurant commodity costs, our casual dining same-store sales (SSS) and traffic survey, and takeaways from the Restaurant Finance &amp; Development Conference (RFDC) that occurred in mid-November.</li>
<li>Retailers outperform and restaurants underperform indexes on a MTD basis. For November 2023, the performance reversed, with retailers outperforming the restaurants by a wide margin.</li>
<li>On a month-to-date (MTD) basis, our equal-weighted index of restaurant stocks increased 6.2% following a decline of 4.2% in October, but below the S&amp;P 500, which increased 8.6%. </li>
</ul>


Our monthly WTR restaurant and retail report focuses on stock performance, short interest, an outlook for restaurant commodity costs, our casual dining same-store sales (SSS) and traffic survey, and takeaways from the Restaurant Finance &amp; Development Conference (RFDC) that occurred in mid-November.
Retailers outperform and restaurants underperform indexes on a MTD basis. For November 2023, the performance reversed, with retailers outperforming the restaurants by a wide margin.
On a month-to-date (MTD) basis, our equal-weighted index of restaurant stocks increased 6.2% following a decline of 4.2% in October, but below the S&amp;P 500, which increased 8.6%. 


Restaurant & Retail Roundup - Takeaways from RFDC

<div><div><div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p>Monthly report on restaurant and retail companies. At Water Tower Research, we are introducing a new monthly report to focus exclusively on the Restaurant and Retail Industries.</p></li><li><p>Our report will focus on stock performance, short interest, an outlook for restaurant commodity costs, interesting themes, and company interviews.</p></li><li><p>In this note, we interviewed Gary Schnierow, Vice-President of Investor Relations, and Corporate Finance for Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. (NASDAQ: BBW). </p></li></ul></div></div></div></div>

Monthly report on restaurant and retail companies. At Water Tower Research, we are introducing a new monthly report to focus exclusively on the Restaurant and Retail Industries.Our report will focus on stock performance, short interest, an outlook for restaurant commodity costs, interesting themes, and company interviews.In this note, we interviewed Gary Schnierow, Vice-President of Investor Relations, and Corporate Finance for Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. (NASDAQ: BBW). 

Restaurant & Retail Roundup - Interview with Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW)

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

<ul><li>With the upcoming first quarter earnings season taking center stage the next 3 weeks, there is yet again a well overdue reprieve from the back and forth focus on hiking, pausing, and cutting next steps of the Federal Reserve.</li><li>The focus now goes back to company earnings and forward guidance and whether slowdowns picked up on ISM, PMI, and regional Fed surveys are now making its way through earnings reports.</li><li>While still early, the first 22 S&amp;P 500 Index companies reveal a 20% drop in earnings QoQ.</li></ul>

With the upcoming first quarter earnings season taking center stage the next 3 weeks, there is yet again a well overdue reprieve from the back and forth focus on hiking, pausing, and cutting next steps of the Federal Reserve.The focus now goes back to company earnings and forward guidance and whether slowdowns picked up on ISM, PMI, and regional Fed surveys are now making its way through earnings reports.While still early, the first 22 S&amp;P 500 Index companies reveal a 20% drop in earnings QoQ.

<ul>
<li>Over the past two weeks, we have been steadfast in our belief that this current rally/short squeeze is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>There has yet to be any meaningful deterioration and we cannot rule out the SPX reaching higher, potentially for 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs).</li>
<li>We continue to preach caution and believe upside is limited on the market indexes. Any combination of a continued strong labor market or hotter-than-expected inflation could upset the market.</li>
</ul>


Over the past two weeks, we have been steadfast in our belief that this current rally/short squeeze is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on the S&amp;P 500.
There has yet to be any meaningful deterioration and we cannot rule out the SPX reaching higher, potentially for 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs).
We continue to preach caution and believe upside is limited on the market indexes. Any combination of a continued strong labor market or hotter-than-expected inflation could upset the market.


Downgrading Energy; SPX Final Reach Up to 4300-4325?; Buys in Restaurants, Retailers, Industrials

United States

Wingstop Inc. owns and operates restaurants. The Company specializes in cooked-to-order, hand-sauced, and tossed chicken wings. Wingstop serves customers worldwide.

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Wingstop Inc (WING US)

Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY); What Would Lead Us to Get Cautious?

Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar. 1-, 2-, and 10-year Treasury yields $TNX failing at shorter-term resistances today; $DXY below...

Vermilion Research

Restaurant & Retail Roundup - Takeaways from RFDC

Retailers outperform and restaurants underperform indexes on a MTD basis. For November 2023, the performance reversed, with retailers outperforming...

Water Tower Research

Restaurant & Retail Roundup - Interview with Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW)

Monthly report on restaurant and retail companies. At Water Tower Research, we are introducing a new monthly report to focus exclusively on the...

Water Tower Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 4/17

The focus now goes back to company earnings and forward guidance and whether slowdowns picked up on ISM, PMI, and regional Fed surveys are now...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Downgrading Energy; SPX Final Reach Up to 4300-4325?; Buys in Restaurants, Retailers, Industrials

We have expected this squeeze to fizzle in the 4100-4165 $SPX area, but with no meaningful deterioration, we could see the $SPX reach for 4300-4325...

Vermilion Research

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