Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>On the FY23Q2 earnings call last night, Micron pegged it as their trough quarter while taking a $1.4 billion hit on inventory write-down </li>
<li>Both DRAM and NAND are now selling well below cost, for all producers</li>
<li>Despite a gradually improving outlook, Micron still anticipates a further $500 million inventory write-down in their current quarter</li>
</ul>


On the FY23Q2 earnings call last night, Micron pegged it as their trough quarter while taking a $1.4 billion hit on inventory write-down 
Both DRAM and NAND are now selling well below cost, for all producers
Despite a gradually improving outlook, Micron still anticipates a further $500 million inventory write-down in their current quarter


Micron Calls FY23Q2 Trough But More Pain Still To Come

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor revenues through January are behaving as Objective Analysis predicted in October</li>
<li>There has been a slight delay in the collapse, but overall, the collapse is very nearly following its predicted course.</li>
<li>Large memory makers will be the hardest hit, followed by processor vendors</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor revenues through January are behaving as Objective Analysis predicted in October
There has been a slight delay in the collapse, but overall, the collapse is very nearly following its predicted course.
Large memory makers will be the hardest hit, followed by processor vendors


Semiconductor Collapse Is Following Predicted Course

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Mar 3rd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD11.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Silergy, Via Tech, Evergreen Marine, Wiwynn.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Mar 3rd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD11.8bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Silergy, Via Tech, Evergreen Marine, Wiwynn.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Mar 3rd): Silergy, Via Tech, Evergreen Marine, Wiwynn

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ChipMOS results missed expectations with capacity utilization falling, dragging down profitability.</li>
<li>The company sees 1Q23E as the bottom for its performance, followed by a 2Q23E rebound. However, it says it believes the Memory industry may take longer to recover.</li>
<li>We believe ChipMOS is cheap if one looks through the cycle, and it is relatively unloved by the Street hence the expectations bar is set low.</li>
</ul>


ChipMOS results missed expectations with capacity utilization falling, dragging down profitability.
The company sees 1Q23E as the bottom for its performance, followed by a 2Q23E rebound. However, it says it believes the Memory industry may take longer to recover.
We believe ChipMOS is cheap if one looks through the cycle, and it is relatively unloved by the Street hence the expectations bar is set low.


ChipMOS: Semiconductor Packaging & Testing Signs of Recovery, Cheap Through Cycle

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We're now two-thirds through the Taiwan Semiconductor earnings season and about one-third through the Taiwan Hardware earnings season.</li>
<li>Semiconductor gross margins declines have been relatively large, and we believe are tracking to be worse than what consensus expected going into the earnings season.</li>
<li>There have been few examples of inventory situations improving for semicondcutor companies; results data released so far indicates a potentially deeper trough than previously expected.</li>
</ul>


We're now two-thirds through the Taiwan Semiconductor earnings season and about one-third through the Taiwan Hardware earnings season.
Semiconductor gross margins declines have been relatively large, and we believe are tracking to be worse than what consensus expected going into the earnings season.
There have been few examples of inventory situations improving for semicondcutor companies; results data released so far indicates a potentially deeper trough than previously expected.


Taiwan Semiconductors Mid-Earnings Season Review: Margins, Inventories Appear Worse Than Expected

Taiwan

Winbond Electronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells integrated circuits (IC) and related products.  The Company sells its products in Taiwan, the United States, and Hong Kong.

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Winbond Electronics (2344 TT)

Micron Calls FY23Q2 Trough But More Pain Still To Come

On the FY23Q2 earnings call last night, Micron pegged it as their trough quarter while taking a $1.4 billion hit on inventory write-down. A further...

William Keating

Semiconductor Collapse Is Following Predicted Course

Today's semiconductor market is closely following the forecast we shared in October. This Insight compares the forecast to actual data for the...

Jim Handy

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Mar 3rd): Silergy, Via Tech, Evergreen Marine, Wiwynn

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Silergy, Via Tech, Evergreen Marine, Wiwynn.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ChipMOS: Semiconductor Packaging & Testing Signs of Recovery, Cheap Through Cycle

The company sees 1Q23E as the bottom for its performance, followed by a 2Q23E rebound. However, it says it believes the Memory industry may take...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Semiconductors Mid-Earnings Season Review: Margins, Inventories Appear Worse Than Expected

Other than comments from some companies saying they expect a 2H23E recovery in their guidance, results data released this season so far indicates a...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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