Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We see early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone markets, stable server market (strengths in AI server, stable in non-AI server market), but weaknesses in automotive and industrial.</li>
<li>We expect the PC semi market recovery of more than 10% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and silicon contents increase by adding AI into PC.</li>
<li>We expect the smartphone semi market recovery of 7-8% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and adopting 3nE foundry node. But, Huawei/HiSilicon will take some of the growth.</li>
</ul>


We see early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone markets, stable server market (strengths in AI server, stable in non-AI server market), but weaknesses in automotive and industrial.
We expect the PC semi market recovery of more than 10% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and silicon contents increase by adding AI into PC.
We expect the smartphone semi market recovery of 7-8% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and adopting 3nE foundry node. But, Huawei/HiSilicon will take some of the growth.


First Run of Global Semis' Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuvoton-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15913:1" rel="noopener">Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT)</a> will be deleted from the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF at the close on 20 September. That was expected.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to sell 20.3m shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuvoton-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15913:1" rel="noopener">Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT)</a>. That is 7x ADV, 4.8% of shares outstanding and 10.4% of float.</li>
<li>With no change in cumulative excess volume over the last few weeks and only a tiny increase in short interest, there could be more positioning in the stock near-term.</li>
</ul>



Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT) will be deleted from the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF at the close on 20 September. That was expected.
Passive trackers will need to sell 20.3m shares of Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT). That is 7x ADV, 4.8% of shares outstanding and 10.4% of float.
With no change in cumulative excess volume over the last few weeks and only a tiny increase in short interest, there could be more positioning in the stock near-term.


Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: Nuvoton Could Take Another Leg Lower

<ul>
<li>With the review period complete, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuvoton-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15913:1" rel="noopener">Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT)</a> is a near certain deletion from the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in September.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to sell 20m shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuvoton-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15913:1" rel="noopener">Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT)</a>. That is over 10% of float and the stock could continue to remain under pressure. </li>
<li>The potential deletion still appears to be under positioned. There could be renewed selling in the stock over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


With the review period complete, Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT) is a near certain deletion from the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in September.
Passive trackers will need to sell 20m shares in Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT). That is over 10% of float and the stock could continue to remain under pressure. 
The potential deletion still appears to be under positioned. There could be renewed selling in the stock over the next few weeks.


Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Nuvoton Could Drop Some More

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuvoton-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15913:1" rel="noopener">Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT)</a> should be deleted from the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in September and that will trigger selling of over 4 days of ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuvoton-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15913:1" rel="noopener">Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT)</a> has underperformed most of its peers since the start of the calendar year and shorts have started to increase in the stock.</li>
<li>Positioning appears light and the recent deletion from an index has increased the real float of the stock. Recent semiconductor weakness could further pressure the stock.</li>
</ul>



Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT) should be deleted from the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in September and that will trigger selling of over 4 days of ADV.

Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT) has underperformed most of its peers since the start of the calendar year and shorts have started to increase in the stock.
Positioning appears light and the recent deletion from an index has increased the real float of the stock. Recent semiconductor weakness could further pressure the stock.


Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Nuvoton Deletion & Positioning

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>On December 8th, GUC reached its daily limit at the closing price, but the company did not consistently demonstrate an agreeable attitude.</li>
<li>The "AI" is an explicit knowledge for today, while GUC is a company of project based. </li>
<li>GUC's monthly revenue decreased by 22.15% YoY in November 2023.</li>
</ul>


On December 8th, GUC reached its daily limit at the closing price, but the company did not consistently demonstrate an agreeable attitude.
The "AI" is an explicit knowledge for today, while GUC is a company of project based. 
GUC's monthly revenue decreased by 22.15% YoY in November 2023.


GUC (3443.TT): Why the Company Did Show a Bit Cautious Attitude with the Market Price?

Taiwan

Win Semiconductors Corp. was founded in 1999. The Company's line of business includes the manufacturing of semiconductors and related solid-state devices.

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Win Semiconductors (3105 TT)

First Run of Global Semis' Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery

After the first Run of global semis' guidance, it tells early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone but weaknesses in automotive and industrial,...

Andrew Lu

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: Nuvoton Could Take Another Leg Lower

Nuvoton Technology will be deleted from the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div Plus ETF at the close on 20 Sep. Passives need to sell over 20m shares -...

Brian Freitas

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Nuvoton Could Drop Some More

Nuvoton Tech should be deleted from the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF in Sep. Passives need to sell over 20m shares - that is over 10% of float....

Brian Freitas

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Nuvoton Deletion & Positioning

Nuvoton Tech should be deleted from the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div Plus ETF in September and that will trigger selling of over 4x ADV. Positioning...

Brian Freitas

GUC (3443.TT): Why the Company Did Show a Bit Cautious Attitude with the Market Price?

GUC's daily limit reached, but company's attitude inconsistent. GUC's project-based nature contrasts with the prominence of "AI" knowledge....

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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First Run of Global Semis' Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery

After the first Run of global semis' guidance, it tells early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone but weaknesses in automotive and industrial,...

Andrew Lu

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: Nuvoton Could Take Another Leg Lower

Nuvoton Technology will be deleted from the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div Plus ETF at the close on 20 Sep. Passives need to sell over 20m shares -...

Brian Freitas

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Nuvoton Could Drop Some More

Nuvoton Tech should be deleted from the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF in Sep. Passives need to sell over 20m shares - that is over 10% of float....

Brian Freitas

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Nuvoton Deletion & Positioning

Nuvoton Tech should be deleted from the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div Plus ETF in September and that will trigger selling of over 4x ADV. Positioning...

Brian Freitas

GUC (3443.TT): Why the Company Did Show a Bit Cautious Attitude with the Market Price?

​GUC's daily limit reached, but company's attitude inconsistent. GUC's project-based nature contrasts with the prominence of "AI" knowledge....

Patrick Liao

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: Nuvoton Could Take Another Leg Lower

Nuvoton Technology will be deleted from the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div Plus ETF at the close on 20 Sep. Passives need to sell over 20m shares -...

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Nuvoton Could Drop Some More

Nuvoton Tech should be deleted from the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF in Sep. Passives need to sell over 20m shares - that is over 10% of float....

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Nuvoton Deletion & Positioning

Nuvoton Tech should be deleted from the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div Plus ETF in September and that will trigger selling of over 4x ADV. Positioning...

GUC's daily limit reached, but company's attitude inconsistent. GUC's project-based nature contrasts with the prominence of "AI" knowledge....