Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 6 changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index that will be implemented at the close on 9 June.</li>
<li>All the inclusions are also additions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shanghai" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500 Index</a> and the passive flows will come from multiple trackers.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last couple of weeks and there could be further outperformance over the next two weeks.</li>
</ul>


There are 6 changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index that will be implemented at the close on 9 June.
All the inclusions are also additions to the CSI 500 Index and the passive flows will come from multiple trackers.
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last couple of weeks and there could be further outperformance over the next two weeks.


CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: Six Changes in June

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Following prelim results released in Jan 2023, the sector started to rally substantially despite a mixed or disappointing set of results.</li><li>In our view, the rebound is mainly due to: 1) a relief rally with better-than-feared results; 2) rising expectation for economy rebound on China reopening; 3) accelerated localization trend under the backdrop of Sino-US tensions.</li><li>However, based on our checks with semi contacts in China and analysis of recent results from major global/ Chinese semi companies, we think the consumer electronic market will remain challenging in 1H23, and recovery may come in 2H23 the earliest. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Following prelim results released in Jan 2023, the sector started to rally substantially despite a mixed or disappointing set of results.In our view, the rebound is mainly due to: 1) a relief rally with better-than-feared results; 2) rising expectation for economy rebound on China reopening; 3) accelerated localization trend under the backdrop of Sino-US tensions.However, based on our checks with semi contacts in China and analysis of recent results from major global/ Chinese semi companies, we think the consumer electronic market will remain challenging in 1H23, and recovery may come in 2H23 the earliest. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Hardware/Semi – Reality Check on Smartphone Supply Chain

Equity Bottom-Up

Will Semiconductor   Shan / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Willsemi announced preliminary 2022 net income of RMB800 mn to RMB1,200 mn, showing 73.2% to 82.1% YoY decline.</li><li>Even a weak 4Q22 was already widely anticipated, the results came in significantly below our/consensus forecasts of RMB2.46 bn/RMB2.97 bn.</li><li>The mgmt. attributed the miss to 1) weak consumer electronic market demand (lower rev. and margin), 2) an inventory write down of RMB1.3 bn to RMB1.5 bn (as a result of high inventory base). We see no clear sign of recovery of consumer electronic demand in near-term, maintain HOLD and revise TP to RMB72.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Willsemi announced preliminary 2022 net income of RMB800 mn to RMB1,200 mn, showing 73.2% to 82.1% YoY decline.Even a weak 4Q22 was already widely anticipated, the results came in significantly below our/consensus forecasts of RMB2.46 bn/RMB2.97 bn.The mgmt. attributed the miss to 1) weak consumer electronic market demand (lower rev. and margin), 2) an inventory write down of RMB1.3 bn to RMB1.5 bn (as a result of high inventory base). We see no clear sign of recovery of consumer electronic demand in near-term, maintain HOLD and revise TP to RMB72.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Willsemi (603501 CH) – Preliminary 2022 Results Came in Below Estimate

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 16th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$101.5 million, led by financials, consumer staples, communication services sectors, and offset by industrials, materials.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for China Merchants Bank, Shanghai Intl Airport, Tongwei.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 16th.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$101.5 million, led by financials, consumer staples, communication services sectors, and offset by industrials, materials.
We highlight flows for China Merchants Bank, Shanghai Intl Airport, Tongwei.


Northbound Flows (Dec 16th): CMB, Shanghai Intl Airport, Tongwei

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 4th. </li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$727.6 million, led by consumer staples, utilities, and offset by materials, industrials, consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CATL, BYD, Mindray, Tianqi, Moutai, Yangtze Power, Yili, East Money, Wintech.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 4th. 
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$727.6 million, led by consumer staples, utilities, and offset by materials, industrials, consumer discretionary.
We highlight flows for CATL, BYD, Mindray, Tianqi, Moutai, Yangtze Power, Yili, East Money, Wintech.


Northbound Flows (Nov 4th): Moutai, Yangtze Power, Yili, East Money, Wintech

China

Will Semiconductor Co.,Ltd. Shanghai manufactures image sensor products and semiconductor products. The Company produces and sells complementary metal oxide semiconductors, protecting devices, power devices, power management integrated circuits, radio frequency devices, microphone sensors, and more. Will Semiconductor Shanghai markets its products worldwide.

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Will Semiconductor Shan (603501 CH)

CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: Six Changes in June

There are 6 index changes in June. All the adds are also inclusions for the CSI500 Index, so there will be passive inflows from multiple trackers....

Brian Freitas

China Hardware/Semi – Reality Check on Smartphone Supply Chain

Following prelim results released in Jan 2023, the sector started to rally substantially despite a mixed or disappointing set of results.

CMB International

Willsemi (603501 CH) – Preliminary 2022 Results Came in Below Estimate

Even a weak 4Q22 was already widely anticipated, the results came in significantly below our/consensus forecasts of RMB2.46 bn/RMB2.97 bn.

CMB International

Northbound Flows (Dec 16th): CMB, Shanghai Intl Airport, Tongwei

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for CMB, Shanghai Intl Airport, Tongwei.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Nov 4th): Moutai, Yangtze Power, Yili, East Money, Wintech

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for CATL, BYD, Mindray, Tianqi, Moutai, Yangtze Power,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)