Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).</li>
<li>Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)
The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).
Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.


Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

<ul>
<li>2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI</li>
<li>We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations</li>
</ul>


2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside
We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI
We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations


Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

<ul>
<li>Major breakouts for UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities are likely to outperform in the months/years ahead.</li>
<li>We continue to recommend adding exposure to China/Hong Kong, and to add exposure/remain overweight Europe and the UK; these remain our favorite areas to invest in the year ahead.</li>
<li>The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China make up the majority of today's individual stock buy recommendations. Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary Sectors are all bullish and highlighted today -- add exposure.</li>
</ul>


Major breakouts for UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities are likely to outperform in the months/years ahead.
We continue to recommend adding exposure to China/Hong Kong, and to add exposure/remain overweight Europe and the UK; these remain our favorite areas to invest in the year ahead.
The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China make up the majority of today's individual stock buy recommendations. Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary Sectors are all bullish and highlighted today -- add exposure.


UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50 Breaking Out; Non-U.S. Outperformance to Continue, Buys in Cyclicals

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Whitbread continues to show that the strong get stronger with Premier Inn, much the largest UK hotel chain, materially outperforming the market throughout H1 to August and to date (by 14% in the seven weeks to 14 October). Notwithstanding seasonality, accentuated by the staycation boon, management expects leisure demand to remain buoyant, with tradespeople business resilient and office-based custom recovering, thereby a potential return of UK like-for-like RevPAR to pre-pandemic levels ‘at some point in 2022’. Robust, asset-backed finances (£2.1bn liquidity) give ample scope to capitalise on structural opportunities, enhanced by COVID-19 fallout, in the highest growth segment of the hotel market, both domestically and in Germany, where management is confident of replicating its UK success.
</p>

Whitbread continues to show that the strong get stronger with Premier Inn, much the largest UK hotel chain, materially outperforming the market throughout H1 to August and to date (by 14% in the seven weeks to 14 October). Notwithstanding seasonality, accentuated by the staycation boon, management expects leisure demand to remain buoyant, with tradespeople business resilient and office-based custom recovering, thereby a potential return of UK like-for-like RevPAR to pre-pandemic levels ‘at some point in 2022’. Robust, asset-backed finances (£2.1bn liquidity) give ample scope to capitalise on structural opportunities, enhanced by COVID-19 fallout, in the highest growth segment of the hotel market, both domestically and in Germany, where management is confident of replicating its UK success.


<p>Confirmation of recovery ‘much broader than staycations’, backed by continued significant outperformance of the midscale and economy hotel market in the quarter to May, highlights a predictably positive update by Whitbread. That is not to play down expected ‘very strong’ demand throughout the summer at tourist locations (c 15% of the estate). While key office-based demand may not pick up meaningfully until the autumn, robust finances, brand strength and economies of scale should allow Whitbread to benefit materially on pandemic fallout (Q122 saw further estate improvement in the UK and an expanding pipeline in Germany). The delay in easing UK lockdown restrictions until 19 July does not change management’s outlook and guidance for the full year to February 2022.
</p>

Confirmation of recovery ‘much broader than staycations’, backed by continued significant outperformance of the midscale and economy hotel market in the quarter to May, highlights a predictably positive update by Whitbread. That is not to play down expected ‘very strong’ demand throughout the summer at tourist locations (c 15% of the estate). While key office-based demand may not pick up meaningfully until the autumn, robust finances, brand strength and economies of scale should allow Whitbread to benefit materially on pandemic fallout (Q122 saw further estate improvement in the UK and an expanding pipeline in Germany). The delay in easing UK lockdown restrictions until 19 July does not change management’s outlook and guidance for the full year to February 2022.


United Kingdom

Whitbread PLC is a hotel and restaurant group. The Company operates businesses in budget hotels, restaurants and coffee shops.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Whitbread PLC (WTB LN)

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

The $DXY broke below 5-year support at $103, signaling a major top in place. This is bullish for risk assets, and is another sign suggesting the...

Vermilion Research

UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50 Breaking Out; Non-U.S. Outperformance to Continue, Buys in Cyclicals

Recent major breakouts for the FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities...

Vermilion Research

Whitbread - Strength in depth

Whitbread continues to show that the strong get stronger with Premier Inn, much the largest UK hotel chain, materially outperforming the market...

Edison Investment Research

Whitbread - The strong get stronger

Confirmation of recovery ‘much broader than staycations’, backed by continued significant outperformance of the midscale and economy hotel market...

Edison Investment Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)