Whitbread - The strong get stronger

Confirmation of recovery ‘much broader than staycations’, backed by continued significant outperformance of the midscale and economy hotel market in the quarter to May, highlights a predictably positive update by Whitbread. That is not to play down expected ‘very strong’ demand throughout the summer at tourist locations (c 15% of the estate). While key office-based demand may not pick up meaningfully until the autumn, robust finances, brand strength and economies of scale should allow Whitbread to benefit materially on pandemic fallout (Q122 saw further estate improvement in the UK and an expanding pipeline in Germany). The delay in easing UK lockdown restrictions until 19 July does not change management’s outlook and guidance for the full year to February 2022.