Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs led to significant declines in S&amp;P 500 (-3.5%) and Nasdaq-100 (-4.4%) futures, with the VIX spiking from 20.00 to 23.45.</li>
<li>
Impact on Australia: Australia faces a 10% tariff, with the overall economic impact expected to be limited.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> Response: The S&amp;P/ASX 200 dropped 2.1% in early trading, with its VIX index rising from 13.20 to 15.43. These are historically high but not extreme levels.</li>
</ul>



Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs led to significant declines in S&amp;P 500 (-3.5%) and Nasdaq-100 (-4.4%) futures, with the VIX spiking from 20.00 to 23.45.

Impact on Australia: Australia faces a 10% tariff, with the overall economic impact expected to be limited.

S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) Response: The S&amp;P/ASX 200 dropped 2.1% in early trading, with its VIX index rising from 13.20 to 15.43. These are historically high but not extreme levels.


S&P/ASX 200 Volatility Rises: Market Down Amid US Tariffs and S&P 500 Futures Plunge

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 21st (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD22.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Transurban, Woolworths, ANZ, Amcor, National Australia Bank, Westpac, Paladin Energy.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 21st (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD22.8bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Transurban, Woolworths, ANZ, Amcor, National Australia Bank, Westpac, Paladin Energy.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 21st): Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Transurban, Woolworths, ANZ, Amcor

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Bain and GIC looking to raise US$130m by selling their remaining stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/judo-capital" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34571:1" rel="noopener">Judo Capital (JDO AU).</a>
</li>
<li>The deal will be a large one to digest at 30.8 days of the stock’s three month ADV, representing 9.2% of its shares outstanding.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Bain and GIC looking to raise US$130m by selling their remaining stake in Judo Capital (JDO AU).

The deal will be a large one to digest at 30.8 days of the stock’s three month ADV, representing 9.2% of its shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Judo Capital Placement - Clean up but past Deal Didn’t Do Well

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Newly released data on insolvencies in Australia suggests that bank credit metrics will come under pressure in current interim and possibly beyond</li>
<li>Construction insolvencies were highest and rose 25% YoY, accommodations and food services accelerated sharply rising 59% YoY, and next leading figure, also accelerated</li>
<li>CBA saw its NPL ratio rise from Dec 23 to Dec 24, and WBC released its 1Q25 to Dec 24 showing improving credit metrics. This may reverse. </li>
</ul>


Newly released data on insolvencies in Australia suggests that bank credit metrics will come under pressure in current interim and possibly beyond
Construction insolvencies were highest and rose 25% YoY, accommodations and food services accelerated sharply rising 59% YoY, and next leading figure, also accelerated
CBA saw its NPL ratio rise from Dec 23 to Dec 24, and WBC released its 1Q25 to Dec 24 showing improving credit metrics. This may reverse. 


Australia Banks - Insolvencies Data Published 17 March Suggests Far Worse Credit Metrics

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 7th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD22.7bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in BHP, Woodside Energy, Westpac.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 7th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD22.7bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in BHP, Woodside Energy, Westpac.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 7th): BHP, Woodside Energy, Westpac

Australia

Westpac Banking Corporation offers general and savings banking services.  The Company provides investment portfolio management and advice, insurance services,  consumer finance, and money market services among other services.  Westpac Banking Corp. serves individuals, businesses, and corporations worldwide.

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Westpac Banking (WBC AU)

S&P/ASX 200 Volatility Rises: Market Down Amid US Tariffs and S&P 500 Futures Plunge

S&P/ASX 200 drops 2.1% in early trading, while volatility increases from 13.2% to above 15.0%. Implied volatility is elevated, but not extreme by a...

Gaudenz Schneider

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 21st): Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Transurban, Woolworths, ANZ, Amcor

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Transurban, Woolworths, ANZ,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Judo Capital Placement - Clean up but past Deal Didn’t Do Well

Bain and GIC looking to raise US$130m by selling their remaining stake in Judo Capital. In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the...

Nicholas Tan

Australia Banks - Insolvencies Data Published 17 March Suggests Far Worse Credit Metrics

Australia's newly released insolvencies data suggest a worsening of forward credit metrics for banks. This may come as a surprise to market, where...

Daniel Tabbush

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 7th): BHP, Woodside Energy, Westpac

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in BHP, Woodside Energy, Westpac.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

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