Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Commonwealth Bank of Australia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Credit cost surge in 1H23 is strangely tempered in 2H23 results, although still rising</li>
<li>Despite rising credit costs, they remain at relatively low levels compared with history</li>
<li>Data on credit metrics suggest to us that credit costs should have been higher in 2H23</li>
</ul>


Credit cost surge in 1H23 is strangely tempered in 2H23 results, although still rising
Despite rising credit costs, they remain at relatively low levels compared with history
Data on credit metrics suggest to us that credit costs should have been higher in 2H23


CBA - The Applause Over Results Seem Misplaced, Considering Credit Metrics

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> has been stuck in the 7000-7400 range for the past 16 weeks.</li>
<li>If the index continues to be trendless for some more weeks, it's possible to profit from repeatedly writing Covered Calls against ASX 200 index holdings.</li>
<li>Strike target areas for Covered Calls begin in the 7319-7409 (July 20 expiry). Deeper OTM Strikes are safe,  but the premiums are smaller.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX has been stuck in the 7000-7400 range for the past 16 weeks.
If the index continues to be trendless for some more weeks, it's possible to profit from repeatedly writing Covered Calls against ASX 200 index holdings.
Strike target areas for Covered Calls begin in the 7319-7409 (July 20 expiry). Deeper OTM Strikes are safe,  but the premiums are smaller.


EQD | S&P/ASX200: Ideas to Profit From a Directionless Market

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 28th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Woodside Energy, NAB, Macquarie, BHP, CSL, Northern Star Re.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 28th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Woodside Energy, NAB, Macquarie, BHP, CSL, Northern Star Re.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 28th): Woodside Energy, NAB, Macquarie, BHP, CSL, Northern Star Re

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 21st (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in BHP, ANZ, Endeavour, South32, Mineral Resource, Igo, Woodside Energy, Northern Star Re, Whitehaven Coal.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 21st (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in BHP, ANZ, Endeavour, South32, Mineral Resource, Igo, Woodside Energy, Northern Star Re, Whitehaven Coal.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 21st): BHP, ANZ, Endeavour, South32, Mineral Resource, Igo, Woodside

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Bankruptcy data through May suggests that credit metrics are worsening dramatically</li>
<li>Australia's banks report on an interim basis, providing only trading updates quarterly</li>
<li>There are very specific concerns with worsening credit metrics for Suncorp and ANZ</li>
</ul>


Bankruptcy data through May suggests that credit metrics are worsening dramatically
Australia's banks report on an interim basis, providing only trading updates quarterly
There are very specific concerns with worsening credit metrics for Suncorp and ANZ


Australian Banks - High Frequency Data Suggests Major Deterioration Not Yet Visible In Interims

Australia

Westpac Banking Corporation offers general and savings banking services.  The Company provides investment portfolio management and advice, insurance services,  consumer finance, and money market services among other services.  Westpac Banking Corp. serves individuals, businesses, and corporations worldwide.

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Westpac Banking Corp Sp Adr (WBK US)

CBA - The Applause Over Results Seem Misplaced, Considering Credit Metrics

CBA beat on earnings, but we believe that much of this was achieved through fairly low credit costs, despite what appears to be worsening credit...

Daniel Tabbush

EQD | S&P/ASX200: Ideas to Profit From a Directionless Market

Overall it seems the index for now is respecting the prediction we made 3 weeks ago: directionless, shortable - but also you can go LONG when the...

Nico Rosti

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 28th): Woodside Energy, NAB, Macquarie, BHP, CSL, Northern Star Re

We estimate the ASX short interests to be USD 16.2bn and highlight short interest changes in Woodside Energy, NAB, Macquarie, BHP, CSL, Northern...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 21st): BHP, ANZ, Endeavour, South32, Mineral Resource, Igo, Woodside

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in BHP, ANZ, Endeavour, South32, Mineral Resource,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Australian Banks - High Frequency Data Suggests Major Deterioration Not Yet Visible In Interims

High frequency data in Australia may be more valuable than many other regions, since banks only report on an interim basis. The data is not good,...

Daniel Tabbush

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