Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In June 2016 (latest complete data), on YTD y/y basis, residential (incl. mixed-use) land GFA acquired by 20 major developers we track based on underlying data from SouFun-CREIS, increased by 31%, compared to 40% in May. Overall land sales of residential (incl. mixed use) land GFA in 40 major cities (Tier-1 and Tier-2) increased by 2.5%, compared to 6% in May YTD y/y. Acquisitions of pure commercial land grew by 64% in June on YTD y/y basis, compared to 136% in May.

In June 2016 (latest complete data), on YTD y/y basis, residential (incl. mixed-use) land GFA acquired by 20 major developers we track based on underlying data from SouFun-CREIS, increased by 31%, compared to 40% in May. Overall land sales of residential (incl. mixed use) land GFA in 40 major cities (Tier-1 and Tier-2) increased by 2.5%, compared to 6% in May YTD y/y. Acquisitions of pure commercial land grew by 64% in June on YTD y/y basis, compared to 136% in May.

Pickup In Land Sales In China Slows Down (June Data)

We rank the housing markets in 54 major cities in China on four metrics: 12-month house price growth, 12-month rolling year-on-year Gross Floor Area (GFA) sales volume growth,  3-month sequential price growth and 3-month volume growth, with latest data for June 2016.

We rank the housing markets in 54 major cities in China on four metrics: 12-month house price growth, 12-month rolling year-on-year Gross Floor Area (GFA) sales volume growth,  3-month sequential price growth and 3-month volume growth, with latest data for June 2016.

China Property: CityScreener(TM) Ranking of Housing Markets In 54 Cities - June 2016 Data

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

There is a report in Caixin that the China Development Bank is pressuring banks and underwriters to stop making loans to Liaoning.  Home to large amounts of contracting heavy industries, specifically those targeted for supply reductions, Liaoning is home to maybe the largest default and restructuring in China in Dongbei Steel.  This is a vitally important issue and one that needs some background.Liaoning is in northeast China and home to large amounts of heavy industry like shipbuilding, coal…

There is a report in Caixin that the China Development Bank is pressuring banks and underwriters to stop making loans to Liaoning.  Home to large amounts of contracting heavy industries, specifically those targeted for supply reductions, Liaoning is home to maybe the largest default and restructuring in China in Dongbei Steel.  This is a vitally important issue and one that needs some background.Liaoning is in northeast China and home to large amounts of heavy industry like shipbuilding, coal…

CBRC May Be Drawing Hard Line with Liaoning on Debt Levels

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Second-guessing the true rate of GDP growth in China has become a sort of art for many commentators.  For a long time, there have been questions about the stated GDP growth figures, which appear too robust, considering the rise in bad loans and many other metrics. The figures in Hong Kong may prove a good barometer of the magnitude of change and the distress within China GDP growth.Hong Kong reported 3.2% real GDP growth in June 2015, dropping steadily through December 2015, but now it is down…

Second-guessing the true rate of GDP growth in China has become a sort of art for many commentators.  For a long time, there have been questions about the stated GDP growth figures, which appear too robust, considering the rise in bad loans and many other metrics. The figures in Hong Kong may prove a good barometer of the magnitude of change and the distress within China GDP growth.Hong Kong reported 3.2% real GDP growth in June 2015, dropping steadily through December 2015, but now it is down…

Hong Kong's Growth Suggests More Weakness in China

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

The RMB has declined almost 3% against the USD since the beginning of 2016. We expect the RMB to continue to face downside pressure through 2016. Non-oil exports as well as non-oil imports are likely to have remained weak in June on a 3mma basis, continuing the trend seen in the first five months of 2016, reflecting the headwinds the economy continues to face on the domestic as well as external front.On a 3mma basis overall exports declined 3.6% y-o-y in June, compared to a rise of 0.9% y-o-y in…

The RMB has declined almost 3% against the USD since the beginning of 2016. We expect the RMB to continue to face downside pressure through 2016. Non-oil exports as well as non-oil imports are likely to have remained weak in June on a 3mma basis, continuing the trend seen in the first five months of 2016, reflecting the headwinds the economy continues to face on the domestic as well as external front.On a 3mma basis overall exports declined 3.6% y-o-y in June, compared to a rise of 0.9% y-o-y in…

China: RMB to Continue to Face Downside Pressure Through 2016

China

Western Securities Company Limited provides securities services such as brokerage, investment and financial advisory, underwriting and sponsorship, self-operation, asset management, investment fund distribution, and futures intermediary businesses.

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Western Securities Co Ltd A (002673 CH)

Pickup In Land Sales In China Slows Down (June Data)

In June 2016 (latest complete data), on YTD y/y basis, residential (incl. mixed-use) land GFA acquired by 20 major developers we track based on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: CityScreener(TM) Ranking of Housing Markets In 54 Cities - June 2016 Data

We rank the housing markets in 54 major cities in China on four metrics: 12-month house price growth, 12-month rolling year-on-year Gross Floor...

Robert Ciemniak

CBRC May Be Drawing Hard Line with Liaoning on Debt Levels

There is a report in Caixin that the China Development Bank is pressuring banks and underwriters to stop making loans to Liaoning. Home to large...

Christopher Balding

Hong Kong's Growth Suggests More Weakness in China

Second-guessing the true rate of GDP growth in China has become a sort of art for many commentators. For a long time, there have been questions...

Daniel Tabbush

China: RMB to Continue to Face Downside Pressure Through 2016

The RMB has declined almost 3% against the USD since the beginning of 2016. We expect the RMB to continue to face downside pressure through 2016....

Rajan Govil

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