Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>H2 2022 was a brutal half year for memory. H1 2023 doesn't look any better.</li>
<li>We anticipate a trough in Q1 2023, sequentially flat Q2 followed by modestly increasing revenues through H2.</li>
<li>Micron's upcoming earnings on March 28 will be the next significant data point regarding the state of the memory segment. </li>
</ul>


H2 2022 was a brutal half year for memory. H1 2023 doesn't look any better.
We anticipate a trough in Q1 2023, sequentially flat Q2 followed by modestly increasing revenues through H2.
Micron's upcoming earnings on March 28 will be the next significant data point regarding the state of the memory segment. 


Semiconductor Memory Segment Q4 2022 Review, 2023 Outlook

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor revenues through January are behaving as Objective Analysis predicted in October</li>
<li>There has been a slight delay in the collapse, but overall, the collapse is very nearly following its predicted course.</li>
<li>Large memory makers will be the hardest hit, followed by processor vendors</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor revenues through January are behaving as Objective Analysis predicted in October
There has been a slight delay in the collapse, but overall, the collapse is very nearly following its predicted course.
Large memory makers will be the hardest hit, followed by processor vendors


Semiconductor Collapse Is Following Predicted Course

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor memories, the most volatile part of the chip market, have declined dramatically since June</li>
<li>During downturns memory chip prices typically collapse until they hit cost</li>
<li>NAND appears to be selling at or near cost, but DRAM still has room for further declines</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor memories, the most volatile part of the chip market, have declined dramatically since June
During downturns memory chip prices typically collapse until they hit cost
NAND appears to be selling at or near cost, but DRAM still has room for further declines


Memory Makers Update: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, WDC, Kioxia

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Peloton delivered a mixed performance in the quarter as its revenues were well above Wall Street expectations but the company’s losses were wider than expected.</li><li>Peloton’s reserves, related to the stock from their Tonic production facilities, decreased their Connected Fitness gross margin by around $32 million for the quarter.</li><li>FaaS has doubled and expanded quickly in the quarter though it does face significant competitive threats from players like Tonal.</li></ul>

Peloton delivered a mixed performance in the quarter as its revenues were well above Wall Street expectations but the company’s losses were wider than expected.Peloton’s reserves, related to the stock from their Tonic production facilities, decreased their Connected Fitness gross margin by around $32 million for the quarter.FaaS has doubled and expanded quickly in the quarter though it does face significant competitive threats from players like Tonal.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 31 January, the expected "deadline" for a bank loan agreement with the JIP Consortium bidding for Toshiba, we got news that commitment confirmation would be extended to 3 February.</li>
<li>Every other time we got a deadline extension, we got an article. On 3-6 Feb, we got no article, suggesting we were close. Today, a Bloomberg article says terms agreed.</li>
<li>That gets us over the biggest hump. Now we have to look at possible next steps and timing.</li>
</ul>


On 31 January, the expected "deadline" for a bank loan agreement with the JIP Consortium bidding for Toshiba, we got news that commitment confirmation would be extended to 3 February.
Every other time we got a deadline extension, we got an article. On 3-6 Feb, we got no article, suggesting we were close. Today, a Bloomberg article says terms agreed.
That gets us over the biggest hump. Now we have to look at possible next steps and timing.


Toshiba (6502) - Funding Definitely Probably Now Secured - Next Steps and Risks

United States

Western Digital Corporation is a global provider of solutions for the collection, storage, management, protection and use of digital content, including audio and video. The Company's products include hard drives, solid-state drives, and home entertainment and networking products.

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Western Digital (WDC US)

Semiconductor Memory Segment Q4 2022 Review, 2023 Outlook

We anticipate memory revenues to trough in Q1 2023, be sequentially flat Q2 followed by modest growth through H2. So far, Q1 has not shown any...

William Keating

Semiconductor Collapse Is Following Predicted Course

Today's semiconductor market is closely following the forecast we shared in October. This Insight compares the forecast to actual data for the...

Jim Handy

Memory Makers Update: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, WDC, Kioxia

The semiconductor memory market has collapsed, but the collapse is nearly over for Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, WDC, and Kioxia.

Jim Handy

Peloton Inc.: Major Drivers

Peloton delivered a mixed performance in the quarter as its revenues were well above Wall Street expectations but the company’s losses were wider...

Baptista Research

Toshiba (6502) - Funding Definitely Probably Now Secured - Next Steps and Risks

Multiple articles indicate Banks and JIP have agreed on terms so Banks can issue a Funding Commitment Letter for JIP's takeover proposal of...

Travis Lundy

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