Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Kawasaki Heavy Industries / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Expect continued buying in defense related, as well as banks and life insurance, renewable energy, rails, and medical IT plays with Shigeru Ishiba at the helm. </li>
<li>The Market will be quick to rotate out of names which spiked into Friday's close on expectation for a Sanae Takaichi win in the LDP election.  </li>
<li>Ishiba has been a vocal critic of Abenomics, and his potential policies aimed at higher taxes for investment incomes and capital gains are set to weigh on the Japanese market. </li>
</ul>


Expect continued buying in defense related, as well as banks and life insurance, renewable energy, rails, and medical IT plays with Shigeru Ishiba at the helm. 
The Market will be quick to rotate out of names which spiked into Friday's close on expectation for a Sanae Takaichi win in the LDP election.  
Ishiba has been a vocal critic of Abenomics, and his potential policies aimed at higher taxes for investment incomes and capital gains are set to weigh on the Japanese market. 


Best Outright and Pair Trades for an Ishiba-Led LDP

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global renewable continue to outperform, although this is yet to be seen in Japan related names.</li>
<li>Very little read from the US with the market firmly in wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed.</li>
<li>Kose sell-side meeting yesterday points to plans for global growth despite few specifics released for its new MTP set to be released in October.</li>
</ul>


Global renewable continue to outperform, although this is yet to be seen in Japan related names.
Very little read from the US with the market firmly in wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed.
Kose sell-side meeting yesterday points to plans for global growth despite few specifics released for its new MTP set to be released in October.


Japan Morning Connection: Kose Aims for Global Growth

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renewable-japan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35211:1" rel="noopener">Renewable Japan (9522 JP)</a> has recommended a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyu-fudosan-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8355:1" rel="noopener">Tokyu Fudosan Holdings (3289 JP)</a>-sponsored MBO at JPY1,250 per share, a 132.3% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>The high takeover premium reflects the 55% YTD decline in the share price. While the timing is opportunistic, the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples. </li>
<li>The irrevocables and low required minority acceptance rate ensure that this is a done deal. The tender runs from 15 November to 8 January 2025 (34 business days).</li>
</ul>



Renewable Japan (9522 JP) has recommended a Tokyu Fudosan Holdings (3289 JP)-sponsored MBO at JPY1,250 per share, a 132.3% premium to the last close.
The high takeover premium reflects the 55% YTD decline in the share price. While the timing is opportunistic, the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples. 
The irrevocables and low required minority acceptance rate ensure that this is a done deal. The tender runs from 15 November to 8 January 2025 (34 business days).


Renewable Japan (9522 JP): Tokyu Fudosan (3289 JP)-Sponsored MBO Set at a 132% Takeover Premium

<ul>
<li>US semis and tech related setting a bullish tone for JP SPE with NVDA closing at record highs.</li>
<li>Steep drop for oil to hit Japex, Index and refiners while US P&amp;C strength should also be reflected in JP peers.</li>
<li>Possible downside for Fujitsu with NTT Docomo announcing a pivot away from their base station equipment.</li>
</ul>


US semis and tech related setting a bullish tone for JP SPE with NVDA closing at record highs.
Steep drop for oil to hit Japex, Index and refiners while US P&amp;C strength should also be reflected in JP peers.
Possible downside for Fujitsu with NTT Docomo announcing a pivot away from their base station equipment.


Japan Morning Connection: US Semis and Tech Set a Bullish Tone for Japan's SPE Majors

<ul>
<li>Big move higher for oil set to spike the JP oil major Inpex although the refiners have large outstanding short interests and may squeeze</li>
<li>The higher oil price is negative for Japan’s utilities which have yet to restart reactors and are dependent on oil/gas imports to fuel their thermal generation</li>
<li>Details are limited on a potential Seven Bank stake sale by 7&amp;I, but there should be room for upside as shorts continue to cover</li>
</ul>


Big move higher for oil set to spike the JP oil major Inpex although the refiners have large outstanding short interests and may squeeze
The higher oil price is negative for Japan’s utilities which have yet to restart reactors and are dependent on oil/gas imports to fuel their thermal generation
Details are limited on a potential Seven Bank stake sale by 7&amp;I, but there should be room for upside as shorts continue to cover


Japan Morning Connection: Spike in Oil Positive for Inpex and Refiners

Japan

West Holdings Corporation is a holding company established through the reorganization of WEST CO LTD.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in solar energy solutions for solar power generation plants, individual customers, and corporate, local government, and rental management company owners.

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West Holdings (1407 JP)

Best Outright and Pair Trades for an Ishiba-Led LDP

How to position in Japanese equities after the surprise win by Shigeru Ishiba over Sanae Takaichi in Friday's LDP election.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Kose Aims for Global Growth

Global renewable sector continues to outperform, but Japan is lagging behind. US market is cautious ahead of the Fed meeting. Kose plans for...

Andrew Jackson

Renewable Japan (9522 JP): Tokyu Fudosan (3289 JP)-Sponsored MBO Set at a 132% Takeover Premium

The high takeover premium reflects the 55% YTD decline in the share price. The irrevocables and low required minority acceptance rate ensure that...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: US Semis and Tech Set a Bullish Tone for Japan's SPE Majors

US semiconductors and tech related setting a bullish tone for JP SPE. Steep drop in oil to hit Japex, Index and refiners. Fujitsu may face downside...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Spike in Oil Positive for Inpex and Refiners

Surge in oil may squeeze refiners with short interests. Negative for Japanese utilities yet to restart reactors. Potential upside for Seven Bank as...

Andrew Jackson

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Best Outright and Pair Trades for an Ishiba-Led LDP

How to position in Japanese equities after the surprise win by Shigeru Ishiba over Sanae Takaichi in Friday's LDP election.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Kose Aims for Global Growth

​Global renewable sector continues to outperform, but Japan is lagging behind. US market is cautious ahead of the Fed meeting. Kose plans for...

Andrew Jackson

Renewable Japan (9522 JP): Tokyu Fudosan (3289 JP)-Sponsored MBO Set at a 132% Takeover Premium

The high takeover premium reflects the 55% YTD decline in the share price. The irrevocables and low required minority acceptance rate ensure that...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: US Semis and Tech Set a Bullish Tone for Japan's SPE Majors

US semiconductors and tech related setting a bullish tone for JP SPE. Steep drop in oil to hit Japex, Index and refiners. Fujitsu may face downside...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Spike in Oil Positive for Inpex and Refiners

Surge in oil may squeeze refiners with short interests. Negative for Japanese utilities yet to restart reactors. Potential upside for Seven Bank as...

Andrew Jackson

Global renewable sector continues to outperform, but Japan is lagging behind. US market is cautious ahead of the Fed meeting. Kose plans for...