Asia Ex-J Consumer/ Transport analyst

Valerie Law, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>It has been slightly over half a year since I joined this community, so here is a brief summary of stock calls that worked and stock calls that didn't work for me. </p><blockquote><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>But first, a note of thanks to the SK community</strong></p></blockquote><p>Besides doing an update, it is also an opportunity to thank everyone here at Smartkarma for your wonderful support (especially the Data Desk team) and collaborative work with fellow insight providers. Looking forward to a stellar year ahead together!</p><h2>Table showing IPO deals covered</h2><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
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<td><strong>IPO</strong></td>
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It has been slightly over half a year since I joined this community, so here is a brief summary of stock calls that worked and stock calls that didn't work for me. But first, a note of thanks to the SK communityBesides doing an update, it is also an opportunity to thank everyone here at Smartkarma for your wonderful support (especially the Data Desk team) and collaborative work with fellow insight providers. Looking forward to a stellar year ahead together!Table showing IPO deals covered

IPO

…

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>WH Group is a transitioning into a global food company but the market is treating it as a commodity business given that it trades at  ~10X FY17 PE vs peer average of 14X. We believe that its synergies and ambitions are not fully appreciated by the market yet.</p><p>Part of the reason for such low valuation could be the share overhang caused by shareholder CDH, which has been addressed in an earlier piece <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wh-group-placement-encouraging-results-and-finally-the-opportunity-for-cdh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:5455">WH Group Placement: Encouraging Results, and Finally the Opportunity for CDH</a> . In this report, we will discuss how WH Group is:<br>1. benefitting from "one man's meat is another man's poison" <br>2. extracting synergies from Smithfield and Clougherty, which is under-appreciated<br>3. going to benefit from the softer hog prices in 2H16<br>4. affected by share overhang from CDH, but selling pressure is diminished<br>5. compared to peers</p>

WH Group is a transitioning into a global food company but the market is treating it as a commodity business given that it trades at  ~10X FY17 PE vs peer average of 14X. We believe that its synergies and ambitions are not fully appreciated by the market yet.Part of the reason for such low valuation could be the share overhang caused by shareholder CDH, which has been addressed in an earlier piece WH Group Placement: Encouraging Results, and Finally the Opportunity for CDH . In this report, we will discuss how WH Group is: 1. benefitting from "one man's meat is another man's poison"  2. extracting synergies from Smithfield and Clougherty, which is under-appreciated 3. going to benefit from the softer hog prices in 2H16 4. affected by share overhang from CDH, but selling pressure is diminished 5. compared to peers

Synergies and Global Ambitions Underappreciated

Founder, Supreme Peoples Court Monitor

Susan Finder

Founder

Supreme Peoples Court Monitor

<p>A senior judge of China's Zhejiang Province Higher People's Court gave a <a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5NjA3NDc5MA==&amp;mid=2654696679&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=de31519c793d3104b951aff8f5533d8a&amp;chksm=bd2110ae8a5699b82257b31d4423e80eb779f5de31303016012381e999a9c774bac4eaa2d167&amp;mpshare=1&amp;scene=5&amp;srcid=0123rxQfyxxt74qmE8hHGXcm#rd" target="_blank">status report</a> on civil and commercial litigation in his province, providing statistics as of the end of September, 2016. What he reported provides signals on the state of the economy there, a province critical to the Chinese economy.</p><h2>What is special about Zhejiang?</h2><p>Zhejiang is an important export base, accounting for about 12% of all Chinese exports in <a href="http://china-trade-research.hktdc.com/business-news/article/Facts-and-Figures/Zhejiang-Market-Profile/ff/en/1/1X000000/1X06BVYH.htm" target="_blank">2015</a>.  Many of the exporting companies are private and in 2015, private…</p>

A senior judge of China's Zhejiang Province Higher People's Court gave a status report on civil and commercial litigation in his province, providing statistics as of the end of September, 2016. What he reported provides signals on the state of the economy there, a province critical to the Chinese economy.What is special about Zhejiang?Zhejiang is an important export base, accounting for about 12% of all Chinese exports in 2015.  Many of the exporting companies are private and in 2015, private…

Bad Debt Litigation in China's Export Base

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

<p><span class="s1"><em>GCSI Rises In December but Increased Polarization Predicts Volatility in 2017</em></span></p><ul><li class="li2"><span class="s1">In December the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) increased slightly to a level of .53, up from .5 in November and above the average reading of 0.37 for the first 11 months of the year.</span></li></ul><ul>
<li class="li2"><span class="s1">Upward momentum in the GCSI has been enough to offset concern about rising inflation and the uncertainty of the Trump presidency in the U.S. set to begin Jan 20th.</span></li>
<li class="li2">
<span class="s1">US dollar strength since Trump’s election in November dampened</span>…</li>
</ul>

GCSI Rises In December but Increased Polarization Predicts Volatility in 2017In December the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) increased slightly to a level of .53, up from .5 in November and above the average reading of 0.37 for the first 11 months of the year.
Upward momentum in the GCSI has been enough to offset concern about rising inflation and the uncertainty of the Trump presidency in the U.S. set to begin Jan 20th.

US dollar strength since Trump’s election in November dampened…


Global Consumer Sentiment Strong in Dec but Troubling Patterns Risk Volatility in 2017

Wens Foodstuff Group Co., Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

<p class="ember-tether-target ember-tether-enabled ember-tether-element-attached-top ember-tether-element-attached-left ember-tether-target-attached-top ember-tether-target-attached-right">We expect pork prices in China to surge &gt; 10% YoY  in parts of 2017 due to low inventory levels in China and expected low global surplus. As China starts the winter season and enters into the Chinese New Year season, consumption of meat in China tends to increase. Meanwhile, the smog situation across the country is already pushing up some domestic food prices. Domestic hog prices are 17% off the peak, seen in June 2016.</p>

We expect pork prices in China to surge &gt; 10% YoY  in parts of 2017 due to low inventory levels in China and expected low global surplus. As China starts the winter season and enters into the Chinese New Year season, consumption of meat in China tends to increase. Meanwhile, the smog situation across the country is already pushing up some domestic food prices. Domestic hog prices are 17% off the peak, seen in June 2016.

China

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd. produces milk, powdered milk, ice cream, and other dairy products.  The Company also produces frozen food and noodles.

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)

Tongwei Co., Ltd. produces and markets aquatic and animal feeds. The Company also sells animal medicines.

Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co., Ltd. is an investment holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company manufactures meat products and frozen food, provides processing and printing services, as well as operates in commercial trading.

Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development (000895 CH)

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes quality dairy products in China. The principal products are liquid milk products, ice cream, and other dairy products, such as milk powder. The Company markets its products under its primary MENGNIU core brand.

Want Want China Holdings Limited manufactures and trades rice crackers, snack food, beverages, and packing materials.  The Company also manufactures wheat, flour, and raw materials for the manufacture of snack foods.  Most of the company's production facilities are located in China and Taiwan.

Dali Foods Group Company Ltd. is a snack food and beverage company. The Company is actively expanding its products offering and distributes its products through retailers.

Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding Corporation, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells instant noodles, baked goods, and beverages in China.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company Ltd. manufactures food seasonings. The Company develops, produces, and distributes condiments including soy sauce, oyster sauce, vinegar, flavoring sauce, chicken stock, monosodium glutamate, and oil.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH)

Guangdong Haid Group Company Ltd. manufactures and markets animal feeds.  The Company imports distiller's dried grains with solubles for ingredient in fish and animal feeds.

Muyuan Foodstuff Company Limited breeds and sells boars and commodity pigs. The Company's main products include boars, and commodity pigs.

Wilmar International Ltd. is an agribusiness company. The Company is involved in oil palm cultivation, edible oils refining, oilseeds crushing, consumer pack edible oils processing and merchandising, specialty fats, oleochemicals and biodiesel manufacturing, and grains processing and merchandising. Wilmar also manufactures and distributes fertilizers and owns a fleet of vessels.

Tata Consumer Products Limited produces food and beverage products. The Company manufactures, sells, and exports tea, coffee, salt, oil, pulses, spices, and food products. Tata Consumer Products serves customers worldwide.

Campbell Soup Company, with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets branded convenience food products.  The Company's core divisions include soups and sauces, biscuits and confectionery, and foodservice.  Campbell's distributes its products worldwide.

Uni-President Enterprises Corp. manufactures, processes, and markets instant noodles, dairy products, frozen foods, soft drinks, soy sauces, canned pickles, meat products, animal feeds, aquatic feeds, edible oils, bread, cakes, and desserts.  The Company also operates vending machines and food distribution centers in Taiwan.

Ajinomoto Co., Inc. produces and sells a variety of food products, including seasonings, edible oils, processed foods, beverages, and dairy products.  The Company also develops and manufactures pharmaceuticals, amino acids, and specialty chemicals.

The JM Smucker Company manufactures and markets food products on a worldwide basis. The Company's principal products include peanut butter, shortening and oils, fruit spreads, canned milk, baking mixes and ready-to-spread frostings, flour and baking ingredients, juices and beverages, frozen sandwiches, dessert toppings, syrups, pickles and condiments, and potato side dishes.

KIKKOMAN CORPORATION produces and markets soy sauce, alcoholic beverages, and other food products.  The Company has marketing rights for Del Monte brand products outside of the United States.  Kikkoman also operates restaurants in Japan and other countries.

Bunge Limited is a global agribusiness and food company. The Company buys, sells, stores, transports and processes oilseeds and grains to make protein meal for animal feed and edible oil products for commercial customers and consumers. Bunge also produces sugar and ethanol from sugarcane, mills wheat and corn, and sells fertilizer.

Hormel Foods Corporation manufactures and markets consumer-branded meat and food products.  The Company processes meat and poultry products and produces a variety of prepared foods.  Hormel markets its products around the world under a variety of branded names.

McCormick & Company, Inc. manufactures, markets, and distributes flavor products (including spices, herbs, extracts, seasonings and flavorings) and other specialty food products to the food industry. The Company sells to retail stores, food manufacturers, and food service businesses.

Wens Foodstuff Group Co., Ltd. produces meat products. The Company produces, processes, and sells chicken, duck, pork, and other related products. Guangdong Wens Foodstuffs Group also manufactures and markets cooked meat and frozen meat.

Wens Foodstuff Group Co., Ltd. (300498 CH)

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Wens Foodstuff Group Co., Ltd. (300498 CH)

A Summary of Stock Calls and Actions

It has been slightly over half a year since I joined this community, so here is a brief summary of stock calls that worked and stock calls that...

Valerie Law, CFA

Synergies and Global Ambitions Underappreciated

WH Group is a transitioning into a global food company but the market is treating it as a commodity business given that it trades at ~10X FY17 PE...

Valerie Law, CFA

Bad Debt Litigation in China's Export Base

A senior judge of China's Zhejiang Province Higher People's Court gave a status report on civil and commercial litigation in his province,...

Susan Finder

Global Consumer Sentiment Strong in Dec but Troubling Patterns Risk Volatility in 2017

GCSI Rises In December but Increased Polarization Predicts Volatility in 2017In December the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) increased...

David Riedel

Winter Is Coming, Bet on China Pork

We expect pork prices in China to surge > 10% YoY in parts of 2017 due to low inventory levels in China and expected low global surplus. As...

Valerie Law, CFA

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