Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>High frequency data in the US for mortgage loan applications and mortgage loan volume is improving, not suggestive of recession</li>
<li>Total domestic credit growth in the US is accelerating in recent months, and this can continue given the HFD on mortgages</li>
<li>Credit metrics can remain a concern, especially in CRE and card lending, despite the improved delta in mortgage lending and total lending</li>
</ul>


High frequency data in the US for mortgage loan applications and mortgage loan volume is improving, not suggestive of recession
Total domestic credit growth in the US is accelerating in recent months, and this can continue given the HFD on mortgages
Credit metrics can remain a concern, especially in CRE and card lending, despite the improved delta in mortgage lending and total lending


US Banks & Economy - HFD Mortgage Data Shows Weekly Improvements, Credit Growth Improving in US

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Occidental’s Q2 revenue grew 1.7% YoY but missed estimates by 1.7%. Net profit surged by 34.9% YoY and beat estimates by 32.5%.</li>
<li>Total production rose by 3.3% YoY led by robust growth in the Permian and Gulf of Mexico. Production touched its highest in four years.</li>
<li>Average crude oil realisations rose 8.6% YoY, and natural gas increased by 11.3%, while domestic gas realisations fell sharply by 60.3% YoY.</li>
</ul>


Occidental’s Q2 revenue grew 1.7% YoY but missed estimates by 1.7%. Net profit surged by 34.9% YoY and beat estimates by 32.5%.
Total production rose by 3.3% YoY led by robust growth in the Permian and Gulf of Mexico. Production touched its highest in four years.
Average crude oil realisations rose 8.6% YoY, and natural gas increased by 11.3%, while domestic gas realisations fell sharply by 60.3% YoY.


[Earnings Review] Occidental Beats Q2 Estimates with Boosted Output and Stronger Realisations

<ul>
<li>Chevron’s Q2 revenue grew 4.7% YoY but its net profit fell by 26.2%. Revenue beat estimates by 1% while EPS missed expectations by 13%.</li>
<li>Production grew 11% YoY, driven by record output in the Permian, strong growth in the DJ Basin, and successful PDC Energy integration.</li>
<li>Q2 capex rose 5.2% YoY to USD 4 billion from higher upstream investments and PDC asset spending. Free cash flow dropped 8% YoY to USD 2.3 billion.</li>
</ul>


Chevron’s Q2 revenue grew 4.7% YoY but its net profit fell by 26.2%. Revenue beat estimates by 1% while EPS missed expectations by 13%.
Production grew 11% YoY, driven by record output in the Permian, strong growth in the DJ Basin, and successful PDC Energy integration.
Q2 capex rose 5.2% YoY to USD 4 billion from higher upstream investments and PDC asset spending. Free cash flow dropped 8% YoY to USD 2.3 billion.


[Earnings Review] Despite Production Growth Chevron’s Profit Falls Due to Lower Refining Margins

Commodities

<ul>
<li>US crude inventories fell for the sixth straight week by 3.7 mb, exceeding the 1.6 mb decline expected by analysts. However, gasoline stocks rise by 1.3 mb.</li>
<li>For the week ending 02/Aug, US natural gas inventories were up 8.2% YoY and 14.9% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Occidental shares surged as it beat Q2 EPS estimates by 32.5%. Exxon and Aramco also exceeded EPS forecasts, while Chevron fell short.</li>
</ul>


US crude inventories fell for the sixth straight week by 3.7 mb, exceeding the 1.6 mb decline expected by analysts. However, gasoline stocks rise by 1.3 mb.
For the week ending 02/Aug, US natural gas inventories were up 8.2% YoY and 14.9% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Occidental shares surged as it beat Q2 EPS estimates by 32.5%. Exxon and Aramco also exceeded EPS forecasts, while Chevron fell short.


[ETP 32/2024] Oil Prices Rebound; Occidental, Exxon, and Aramco Beat Earnings Estimates

<ul>
<li>Exxon Mobil’s Q2 revenue grew 12.2% YoY and net profit increased by 17.3%. Revenue missed estimates by 0.4% while net profit exceeded expectations by 6.2%. v</li>
<li>Exxon Mobil’s Q2 oil production hit a record high since the 1999 merger, driven by strong output in Guyana and the Permian basin.</li>
<li>Exxon Mobil expects full-year expenditures to total USD 28 billion, including USD 25 billion for ExxonMobil and USD 3 billion for Pioneer.</li>
</ul>


Exxon Mobil’s Q2 revenue grew 12.2% YoY and net profit increased by 17.3%. Revenue missed estimates by 0.4% while net profit exceeded expectations by 6.2%. v
Exxon Mobil’s Q2 oil production hit a record high since the 1999 merger, driven by strong output in Guyana and the Permian basin.
Exxon Mobil expects full-year expenditures to total USD 28 billion, including USD 25 billion for ExxonMobil and USD 3 billion for Pioneer.


[Earnings Review] Production Surge in Guyana and Permian Aids Exxon Beat Profit Estimates

United States

Wells Fargo & Company is a diversified financial services company providing banking, insurance, investments, mortgage, leasing, credit cards, and consumer finance.  The Company operates through physical stores, the Internet and other distribution channels across North America and elsewhere internationally.

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Wells Fargo & Co (WFC US)

US Banks & Economy - HFD Mortgage Data Shows Weekly Improvements, Credit Growth Improving in US

HFD on mortgage loans is improving substantially, not suggestive of a weakening economy, impending recession. Overall loan growth is also...

Daniel Tabbush

[Earnings Review] Occidental Beats Q2 Estimates with Boosted Output and Stronger Realisations

Occidental's Q2 revenue slightly missed estimates, but net profit surged. Production reached a four-year high. Global oil and gas realisations...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] Despite Production Growth Chevron’s Profit Falls Due to Lower Refining Margins

Chevron's Q2 revenue up 4.7% YoY, but net profit down 26.2%. Production grew 11% YoY, capex rose 5.2% to USD 4 billion. Free cash flow dropped 8%...

Mint Finance

[ETP 32/2024] Oil Prices Rebound; Occidental, Exxon, and Aramco Beat Earnings Estimates

US crude inventory falls. Nat-gas inventory up YoY. Oxy beats Q2 EPS estimates by 32%. XOM & Aramco beat forecasts. WTI IVs soared to YTD high of...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] Production Surge in Guyana and Permian Aids Exxon Beat Profit Estimates

Exxon Mobil beat profit estimates in Q2 with record oil production, despite a slight revenue miss. Higher crude realisations offset lower nat-gas...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US Banks & Economy - HFD Mortgage Data Shows Weekly Improvements, Credit Growth Improving in US

HFD on mortgage loans is improving substantially, not suggestive of a weakening economy, impending recession. Overall loan growth is also...

Daniel Tabbush

[Earnings Review] Occidental Beats Q2 Estimates with Boosted Output and Stronger Realisations

​Occidental's Q2 revenue slightly missed estimates, but net profit surged. Production reached a four-year high. Global oil and gas realisations...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] Despite Production Growth Chevron’s Profit Falls Due to Lower Refining Margins

​Chevron's Q2 revenue up 4.7% YoY, but net profit down 26.2%. Production grew 11% YoY, capex rose 5.2% to USD 4 billion. Free cash flow dropped 8%...

Mint Finance

[ETP 32/2024] Oil Prices Rebound; Occidental, Exxon, and Aramco Beat Earnings Estimates

US crude inventory falls. Nat-gas inventory up YoY. Oxy beats Q2 EPS estimates by 32%. XOM & Aramco beat forecasts. WTI IVs soared to YTD high of...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] Production Surge in Guyana and Permian Aids Exxon Beat Profit Estimates

Exxon Mobil beat profit estimates in Q2 with record oil production, despite a slight revenue miss. Higher crude realisations offset lower nat-gas...

Mint Finance

Occidental's Q2 revenue slightly missed estimates, but net profit surged. Production reached a four-year high. Global oil and gas realisations...

Chevron's Q2 revenue up 4.7% YoY, but net profit down 26.2%. Production grew 11% YoY, capex rose 5.2% to USD 4 billion. Free cash flow dropped 8%...