Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>High frequency data shows small banks continue to take more CRE loan market share to week 23 August, now at 66.11%, rising 0.06% WoW (double avg WoW rise this year)</li>
<li>Net-Charge off rates on CRE loans for the 100 largest US banks just doubled in the past week to 26bps, for other banks they are still low...for now</li>
<li>Weekly mortgage loan applications index fell 5.7% in most recent weeks' data to 25 August, a steep decline compared with an avg 0.3% WoW decline since 7 July </li>
</ul>


High frequency data shows small banks continue to take more CRE loan market share to week 23 August, now at 66.11%, rising 0.06% WoW (double avg WoW rise this year)
Net-Charge off rates on CRE loans for the 100 largest US banks just doubled in the past week to 26bps, for other banks they are still low...for now
Weekly mortgage loan applications index fell 5.7% in most recent weeks' data to 25 August, a steep decline compared with an avg 0.3% WoW decline since 7 July 


US Banks - Small Banks' CRE Loan Share Up Weekly, Now 66.1% | Mtg Loan App's Index -5.7% In the Week

<ul>
<li>Large US banks saw loans down USD22bn from 28 Jun to 16 Aug vs 5bn decline preceding</li>
<li>Weekly data in preceding several weeks shows combined USD18bn decline: it's worsening</li>
<li>Large time deposits, at large US banks, up 76% YoY at 16 Aug - growth is 'off the charts' </li>
</ul>


Large US banks saw loans down USD22bn from 28 Jun to 16 Aug vs 5bn decline preceding
Weekly data in preceding several weeks shows combined USD18bn decline: it's worsening
Large time deposits, at large US banks, up 76% YoY at 16 Aug - growth is 'off the charts' 


US Banks - New HFD Shows Loans Down $22bn From 28 Jun To 16 Aug & Large Time Deposits up 76% YoY

<ul>
<li>High-Frequency data for balance sheets of US banks is just released</li>
<li>Contra-Asset account, loan loss reserves, rapid rise suggests far worse credit metrics </li>
<li>US banks can see hits on all fronts: volume, funding, credit costs, regulatory capital</li>
</ul>


High-Frequency data for balance sheets of US banks is just released
Contra-Asset account, loan loss reserves, rapid rise suggests far worse credit metrics 
US banks can see hits on all fronts: volume, funding, credit costs, regulatory capital


US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheet Data Suggests Rapid Growth Of Credit Costs

<ul>
<li>US banks face more than just Silicon Valley risk, namely with net interest income</li>
<li>Credit costs are also running substantially higher in January monthly data</li>
<li>Bank loan data suggests a strong economy, not overly positive for rates</li>
</ul>


US banks face more than just Silicon Valley risk, namely with net interest income
Credit costs are also running substantially higher in January monthly data
Bank loan data suggests a strong economy, not overly positive for rates


Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 09/Aug, US crude inventories increased by 1.4 mb for the first time in seven weeks, contrary to analyst expectations of a 1.9 mb drawdown.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 6 Bcf, its first decline since 04/Apr. However, storage levels are up 6.8% YoY and 13% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Wells Fargo, UBS, and BMO Capital reduced their target prices on Occidental. BMO Capital lowered its targets on Chevron and Halliburton but raised its target on Exxon Mobil.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 09/Aug, US crude inventories increased by 1.4 mb for the first time in seven weeks, contrary to analyst expectations of a 1.9 mb drawdown.
US natural gas inventories fell by 6 Bcf, its first decline since 04/Apr. However, storage levels are up 6.8% YoY and 13% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Wells Fargo, UBS, and BMO Capital reduced their target prices on Occidental. BMO Capital lowered its targets on Chevron and Halliburton but raised its target on Exxon Mobil.


[ETP 2024/33] Oil Lost Gains to Demand Concerns and Unexpected Build in US Inventories

United States

Wells Fargo & Company is a diversified financial services company providing banking, insurance, investments, mortgage, leasing, credit cards, and consumer finance.  The Company operates through physical stores, the Internet and other distribution channels across North America and elsewhere internationally.

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Wells Fargo & Co (WFC US)

US Banks - New HFD Shows Loans Down $22bn From 28 Jun To 16 Aug & Large Time Deposits up 76% YoY

US banks' HFD data shows loans down $22bn in recent weeks - a major worsening - and 76% growth in the latest week YoY for large time deposits. B/S...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheet Data Suggests Rapid Growth Of Credit Costs

Weekly balance sheet data for US banks is released every Saturday and the data through 14 June suggests major worsening in credit metrics at large...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Not Just Silicon Risk

US banks face more than just Silicon Valley risk, namely with respect to rising deposit rates, worsening net interest income, and rising credit costs.

Daniel Tabbush

[ETP 2024/33] Oil Lost Gains to Demand Concerns and Unexpected Build in US Inventories

US crude inventories unexpectedly rose, while natural gas inventories fell for the first time since April. Major brokerages lowered target prices...

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

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P/E

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US Banks - Small Banks' CRE Loan Share Up Weekly, Now 66.1% | Mtg Loan App's Index -5.7% In the Week

Weekly US data shows US small banks taking higher CRE loan market share every week this quarter, now at 66.1%, while the US Mortgage Loan...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - New HFD Shows Loans Down $22bn From 28 Jun To 16 Aug & Large Time Deposits up 76% YoY

US banks' HFD data shows loans down $22bn in recent weeks - a major worsening - and 76% growth in the latest week YoY for large time deposits. B/S...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheet Data Suggests Rapid Growth Of Credit Costs

Weekly balance sheet data for US banks is released every Saturday and the data through 14 June suggests major worsening in credit metrics at large...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Not Just Silicon Risk

US banks face more than just Silicon Valley risk, namely with respect to rising deposit rates, worsening net interest income, and rising credit costs.

Daniel Tabbush

[ETP 2024/33] Oil Lost Gains to Demand Concerns and Unexpected Build in US Inventories

​US crude inventories unexpectedly rose, while natural gas inventories fell for the first time since April. Major brokerages lowered target prices...

Mint Finance

US crude inventories unexpectedly rose, while natural gas inventories fell for the first time since April. Major brokerages lowered target prices...