Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>1Q23 earnings were 130% of consensus annualized, 2Q23 is 104% consensus annualized</li>
<li>USB saw its quarterly income/FY23 consensus move from 27% to 21% from 1Q23 to 2Q23</li>
<li>COLB, WAL are at lowest FY23 consensus achievement rates: 21% and 41% during 1H23</li>
</ul>


1Q23 earnings were 130% of consensus annualized, 2Q23 is 104% consensus annualized
USB saw its quarterly income/FY23 consensus move from 27% to 21% from 1Q23 to 2Q23
COLB, WAL are at lowest FY23 consensus achievement rates: 21% and 41% during 1H23


US Banks - Qtly Profit Falls As % Of FY23 Consensus, Some More Than Others: USB, PB, COL, WAL, AEX

<ul>
<li>High-Frequency data for US mortgage loan applications, lending and LLR are a red flag</li>
<li>US large banks' loan growth is decelerating sharply, and LLR rising fast for many weeks</li>
<li>Banks face low or negative net interest income growth, as credit costs rise substantially</li>
</ul>


High-Frequency data for US mortgage loan applications, lending and LLR are a red flag
US large banks' loan growth is decelerating sharply, and LLR rising fast for many weeks
Banks face low or negative net interest income growth, as credit costs rise substantially


US Banks - HFD Mtg Vol Near 1990 Level, Net Int Inc Delta Can Be Negative & With Surging Provisions

<ul>
<li>High frequency data shows large US banks reporting loan growth at 2.5% YoY at 19 July week</li>
<li>This is far lower than where it was earlier this year at 8.2% YoY at 18 January week</li>
<li>Loan loss reserves for large banks are up ~18.3% YoY in each of the past 3 weeks</li>
</ul>


High frequency data shows large US banks reporting loan growth at 2.5% YoY at 19 July week
This is far lower than where it was earlier this year at 8.2% YoY at 18 January week
Loan loss reserves for large banks are up ~18.3% YoY in each of the past 3 weeks


US Banks - Loan Growth Moving Lower With Rising Provisions, Not Great Combination

<ul>
<li>Weekly US bank data shows sharply decelerating loans at the largest 25 banks</li>
<li>Core to the economy are C&amp;I loans which are showing the pace of growth down 72%</li>
<li>Small US banks appear to be seeing off-balance sheet CRE loans moving on balance sheet</li>
</ul>


Weekly US bank data shows sharply decelerating loans at the largest 25 banks
Core to the economy are C&amp;I loans which are showing the pace of growth down 72%
Small US banks appear to be seeing off-balance sheet CRE loans moving on balance sheet


US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets Show Major Loan Deceleration

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

Wells Fargo & Co / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>This is our first report on one of the American banking major, Wells Fargo.</li><li>The company performed well in the quarter despite operating losses and managed an all-around beat.</li><li>Increasing interest rates fueled a rapid rise in net interest income.</li></ul>

This is our first report on one of the American banking major, Wells Fargo.The company performed well in the quarter despite operating losses and managed an all-around beat.Increasing interest rates fueled a rapid rise in net interest income.

Wells Fargo & Co: Initiation of Coverage – Banking Crisis Impact & Recent Developments

United States

Wells Fargo & Company is a diversified financial services company providing banking, insurance, investments, mortgage, leasing, credit cards, and consumer finance.  The Company operates through physical stores, the Internet and other distribution channels across North America and elsewhere internationally.

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Wells Fargo & Co (WFC US)

US Banks - Qtly Profit Falls As % Of FY23 Consensus, Some More Than Others: USB, PB, COL, WAL, AEX

US bank profit downgrades can be big, looking at FY23 consensus earnings achievement rates in 1Q23, 2Q23. Many banks are at less than 50% of FY23...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - HFD Mtg Vol Near 1990 Level, Net Int Inc Delta Can Be Negative & With Surging Provisions

High frequency data in the US suggests bank earnings will be weak in coming quarters. Weekly mtg loan vol data nearing 1990 levels, weekly loan...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Loan Growth Moving Lower With Rising Provisions, Not Great Combination

Large US banks show far lower loan growth in new weekly data to 19 July with high growth in loan loss reserves. Still relatively high growth in CRE...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets Show Major Loan Deceleration

New weekly data from US banks shows sharp deceleration in loan growth at large banks, especially C&I loans, while small banks may be seeing off B/S...

Daniel Tabbush

Wells Fargo & Co: Initiation of Coverage – Banking Crisis Impact & Recent Developments

This is our first report on one of the American banking major, Wells Fargo. The company performed well in the quarter despite operating losses and...

Baptista Research

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