Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As outlined in previous reports, Aeon has been working hard to streamline its vast retail empire but also rethinking the fundamentals of retailing for each major format it operates.</li>
<li>The results are now coming through with a big increase in operating profits in 1H2023, up 23% on last year.</li>
<li>There is real momentum now, and the new online supermarket business is central to its ambitions to create the first true national FMCG business.</li>
</ul>


As outlined in previous reports, Aeon has been working hard to streamline its vast retail empire but also rethinking the fundamentals of retailing for each major format it operates.
The results are now coming through with a big increase in operating profits in 1H2023, up 23% on last year.
There is real momentum now, and the new online supermarket business is central to its ambitions to create the first true national FMCG business.


Aeon Keeps Working After High Profit Growth

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lixil-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:454:1" rel="noopener">Lixil Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hakuhodo-dy-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8736:1" rel="noopener">Hakuhodo Dy Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobayashi-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14930:1" rel="noopener">Kobayashi Pharmaceutical</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/temp-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1428:1" rel="noopener">Persol Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-payment-gateway-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1492:1" rel="noopener">GMO Payment Gateway</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kurita-water-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3870:1" rel="noopener">Kurita Water Industries</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/open-house-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19550:1" rel="noopener">Open House</a> have all underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> over the recent past.</li>
<li>The underperformance could lead to adjustments in global passive portfolios and liquidity events on some of the stocks.</li>
<li>Short interest has increased on some stocks and there could be more pre-positioning to come over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>



CyberAgent, Lixil Group, Hakuhodo Dy Holdings, Kobayashi Pharmaceutical, Welcia Holdings, Persol Holdings, GMO Payment Gateway, Kurita Water Industries and Open House have all underperformed the Nikkei 225 over the recent past.
The underperformance could lead to adjustments in global passive portfolios and liquidity events on some of the stocks.
Short interest has increased on some stocks and there could be more pre-positioning to come over the next few weeks.


Japan - Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting* Stocks

<ul>
<li>Aeon just announced record revenues of more than ¥9 trillion for FY2022. </li>
<li>Its supermarkets, mall developments and drugstores continue to strengthen and even the GMS business had a good year even if it still a way to go to generate consistent profit.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, Aeon plans to pour ¥150 billion a year into group-wide digital technologies, after launching the most advanced food online operation Japan has seen yet this month.</li>
</ul>


Aeon just announced record revenues of more than ¥9 trillion for FY2022. 
Its supermarkets, mall developments and drugstores continue to strengthen and even the GMS business had a good year even if it still a way to go to generate consistent profit.
Meanwhile, Aeon plans to pour ¥150 billion a year into group-wide digital technologies, after launching the most advanced food online operation Japan has seen yet this month.


<ul>
<li>It has taken three years to build and set up but Aeon will finally open its first automated warehouse for online food sales in Chiba this summer. </li>
<li>The warehouse will run on technology from Ocado and act as the backend for a completely new online supermarket called Green Beans.</li>
<li>A second warehouse is due to come online in 2026, expanding sales to all of Tokyo and into Kanagawa. This is the most advanced food e-commerce operation in Japan.</li>
</ul>


It has taken three years to build and set up but Aeon will finally open its first automated warehouse for online food sales in Chiba this summer. 
The warehouse will run on technology from Ocado and act as the backend for a completely new online supermarket called Green Beans.
A second warehouse is due to come online in 2026, expanding sales to all of Tokyo and into Kanagawa. This is the most advanced food e-commerce operation in Japan.


Aeon to Launch Ground-Breaking Online Food Business

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Drugstores were already the fastest growing format before Covid and the health scare only improved their performance further.</li>
<li>Several of the largest chains are now powerful players in food, using their non-food base to shake up the supermarket sector in ways that Japan has never seen before.</li>
<li>Being price-led, inflation is only helping them along, with a much greater capacity to hold down prices than mainstream supermarkets.</li>
</ul>


Drugstores were already the fastest growing format before Covid and the health scare only improved their performance further.
Several of the largest chains are now powerful players in food, using their non-food base to shake up the supermarket sector in ways that Japan has never seen before.
Being price-led, inflation is only helping them along, with a much greater capacity to hold down prices than mainstream supermarkets.


Discount Drugstores Challenging Japanese Supermarkets

Japan

WELCIA HOLDINGS CO.,LTD. is a holding company established through a merger of Welcia Kanto and Takada Pharmacy.  The Group mainly operates drug chain stores which sell medicines, health foods, cosmetics, nursery items and daily necessity goods.

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Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)

Aeon Keeps Working After High Profit Growth

Aeon's efforts to revamp its retail empire and rethink strategies are paying off, with a 23% rise in OP in 1H2023. A new online store is key to...

Michael Causton

Japan - Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting* Stocks

There are a few stocks in Japan that have underperformed the NKY over the last few months and that could lead to a liquidity event due to the...

Brian Freitas

Aeon: All Signs Point to Higher Returns

Aeon has long been famous for low margins and an empire of diverse business units with less than stellar efficiency. The last five years have seen...

Michael Causton

Aeon to Launch Ground-Breaking Online Food Business

Aeon is now officially a major e-commerce business, after years of having barely any skin in the game. The potential of its new Ocado-backed online...

Michael Causton

Discount Drugstores Challenging Japanese Supermarkets

Japan's supermarkets are facing unprecedented challenges from new competition in e-commerce but especially drugstores. We highlight the winners in...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Aeon Keeps Working After High Profit Growth

​Aeon's efforts to revamp its retail empire and rethink strategies are paying off, with a 23% rise in OP in 1H2023. A new online store is key to...

Michael Causton

Japan - Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting* Stocks

There are a few stocks in Japan that have underperformed the NKY over the last few months and that could lead to a liquidity event due to the...

Brian Freitas

Aeon: All Signs Point to Higher Returns

Aeon has long been famous for low margins and an empire of diverse business units with less than stellar efficiency. The last five years have seen...

Michael Causton

Aeon to Launch Ground-Breaking Online Food Business

Aeon is now officially a major e-commerce business, after years of having barely any skin in the game. The potential of its new Ocado-backed online...

Michael Causton

Discount Drugstores Challenging Japanese Supermarkets

Japan's supermarkets are facing unprecedented challenges from new competition in e-commerce but especially drugstores. We highlight the winners in...

Michael Causton

Aeon's efforts to revamp its retail empire and rethink strategies are paying off, with a 23% rise in OP in 1H2023. A new online store is key to...