Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous record of Q1 2021 by more than HK$100bn. This week was +HK$37bn.</li>
<li>That's decent net buying still. Keeping that pace would mean a new record. It IS possible this excess flow is state-managed (or state-insisted as insurers up equity investment ratios).</li>
<li>Included is a summary of important China Stocks-relevant news as I saw it this week, but tariffs, retaliation, US growth prospects, etc will all matter more. </li>
</ul>


Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous record of Q1 2021 by more than HK$100bn. This week was +HK$37bn.
That's decent net buying still. Keeping that pace would mean a new record. It IS possible this excess flow is state-managed (or state-insisted as insurers up equity investment ratios).
Included is a summary of important China Stocks-relevant news as I saw it this week, but tariffs, retaliation, US growth prospects, etc will all matter more. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2025); Banks and Divs Bought Again

<ul>
<li>AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion reverses again with narrow premia trades seeing Hs perform the best. </li>
<li>Warning signs are starting to flash on spreads. This week I have the biggest week of changes recommended that I have <em>ever</em> had. By a long ways.</li>
<li>This week threatens to be a very strange week geopolitically. Being smaller in crowded trades is probably a good thing.</li>
</ul>


AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion reverses again with narrow premia trades seeing Hs perform the best. 
Warning signs are starting to flash on spreads. This week I have the biggest week of changes recommended that I have ever had. By a long ways.
This week threatens to be a very strange week geopolitically. Being smaller in crowded trades is probably a good thing.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Feb 2025):  AH Premia Continue to Fall; Expect Widening

<ul>
<li>AH Premia are lower over the last few weeks of holiday and this past week of heavy SOUTHBOUND buying on Tencent, telcos, and banks.</li>
<li>Finance and Tech are seeing large buying, but the really big moves over the past few weeks have been on Industrial Names (CRRC), and Materials, and Tech</li>
<li>The VERY WIDE Tech spreads such as SMIC (981), Shanghai Fudan Microelectric (1385), CHina Rail Signal (3969), and Flat Glass (6865) have been HUGE performers.</li>
</ul>


AH Premia are lower over the last few weeks of holiday and this past week of heavy SOUTHBOUND buying on Tencent, telcos, and banks.
Finance and Tech are seeing large buying, but the really big moves over the past few weeks have been on Industrial Names (CRRC), and Materials, and Tech
The VERY WIDE Tech spreads such as SMIC (981), Shanghai Fudan Microelectric (1385), CHina Rail Signal (3969), and Flat Glass (6865) have been HUGE performers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 10 Jan 2025): Super Wide Tech Spreads Best Over Holidays and into NY.

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Supportive policies from central and local governments on the development of the hydrogen energy industry have boosted the share prices of the sector (up 12.3% YTD).</li>
<li>Inner Mongolia has eased regulations on electrolysis water hydrogen production projects while Shandong has waived hydrogen-powered vehicle tolls on highways. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-sinohytec-co-ltd-57df3cd9-bd23-4f74-899b-d589f67fa85f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36866:1" rel="noopener">Beijing SinoHytec (2402 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weichai-power-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12508:1" rel="noopener">Weichai Power (2338 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongyue-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20429:1" rel="noopener">Dongyue Group (189 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-enric-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Enric (3899 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfang-electric-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1251:1" rel="noopener">Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)</a> have recorded good progress in hydrogen business.</li>
</ul>


Supportive policies from central and local governments on the development of the hydrogen energy industry have boosted the share prices of the sector (up 12.3% YTD).
Inner Mongolia has eased regulations on electrolysis water hydrogen production projects while Shandong has waived hydrogen-powered vehicle tolls on highways. 

Beijing SinoHytec (2402 HK), Weichai Power (2338 HK), Dongyue Group (189 HK), CIMC Enric (3899 HK), and Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) have recorded good progress in hydrogen business.


China's Hydrogen Economy: Re-Igniting Interests

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 160 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 63.7% as of Dec 12th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 1.1ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, energy, information technology and offset by communication services.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for MCC, China Merchants Securities, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, CNOOC, Cgn Power, Baiyunshan Pharma.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 160 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 63.7% as of Dec 12th.
The average A-H premium changed by 1.1ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, energy, information technology and offset by communication services.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for MCC, China Merchants Securities, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, CNOOC, Cgn Power, Baiyunshan Pharma.


A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 12th): MCC, China Merchants Securities, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank

China

Weichai Power Co., Ltd. specializes in the research and development, manufacturing and sales of diesel engines. The company's products are applicable to markets such as, heavy-duty vehicles, coaches, construction machines, vessels and power generator.

Price Gauge
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Weichai Power Co Ltd H (2338 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2025); Banks and Divs Bought Again

Chinese banks get their expected capital injection and the world awaits tariffs but SOUTHBOUND investors continue to buy, making for a record...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Feb 2025): AH Premia Continue to Fall; Expect Widening

AH Premia are again at a 5yr low. Liquid Hs outperform illiquids with wider spreads. Trades are getting crowded. Biggest slew of recommendations in...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 10 Jan 2025): Super Wide Tech Spreads Best Over Holidays and into NY.

AH Spreads tightened on average to near 5yr lows. Financials, Energy, Industrials all very tight. Tech, Materials, and Pharma remain wide. Wide...

Travis Lundy

China's Hydrogen Economy: Re-Igniting Interests

Sichuan province held "the conference on further promoting the development and promotion of the entire green hydrogen industry chain" in the last...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 12th): MCC, China Merchants Securities, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for MCC, China Merchants Securities, Chongqing Rural Commercial...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

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