Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35280:1" rel="noopener">Weibo (9898 HK)</a> is an inexpensive profitable large social media company in China</li>
<li>Weibo generates a large cash flow which it uses to pay a 9% dividend yield</li>
<li>Weibo has synergies with Alibaba's core e-commerce business and fits well within its other media company ecosystem</li>
</ul>



Weibo (9898 HK) is an inexpensive profitable large social media company in China
Weibo generates a large cash flow which it uses to pay a 9% dividend yield
Weibo has synergies with Alibaba's core e-commerce business and fits well within its other media company ecosystem


BABA's Babies: They're All Grown Now! Weibo the Twitter of China

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>BILIBILI shares have rallied more than 200% since early November on prospects of China exiting zero-COVID, short covering, and accelerated breakeven timeline.</li>
<li>Yet simply achieving breakeven doesn’t justify its US$10 billion valuation. It has to be accompanied by decent profitable growth - an unlikely scenario given the aggressive downsizing needed for breakeven.</li>
<li>BILI’s businesses also entail structurally low margin. Stock could easily de-rate by 30% or more when growth euphoria recedes and disappointed profitability checks in during 2023.</li>
</ul>


BILIBILI shares have rallied more than 200% since early November on prospects of China exiting zero-COVID, short covering, and accelerated breakeven timeline.
Yet simply achieving breakeven doesn’t justify its US$10 billion valuation. It has to be accompanied by decent profitable growth - an unlikely scenario given the aggressive downsizing needed for breakeven.
BILI’s businesses also entail structurally low margin. Stock could easily de-rate by 30% or more when growth euphoria recedes and disappointed profitability checks in during 2023.


BILIBILI (BILI US): Can Achieving Breakeven Justify US$10bn Market Cap?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>First major technical resistance for HSI and HSCEI has been met with force and a consolidation/correction begins</li>
<li>Market breadth expands over last month presenting investment opportunities beyond tech and mega-cap</li>
<li>Short and long term sentiment indicators going positive as most analysts continue to look in rear view mirror</li>
</ul>


First major technical resistance for HSI and HSCEI has been met with force and a consolidation/correction begins
Market breadth expands over last month presenting investment opportunities beyond tech and mega-cap
Short and long term sentiment indicators going positive as most analysts continue to look in rear view mirror


Technically Speaking: Hong Kong Strategy in the Secular Bull Market

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

<ul>
<li>Great Wall Motor denied that many employees have resigned recently, but there many complaints from employees on social media.</li>
<li>Many small companies grew strongly, such as Tuniu up by 140% and Kanzhun up by 46%.</li>
<li>Weibo’s advertising revenue decreased, while most companies’ ad revenues have recovered.</li>
</ul>


Great Wall Motor denied that many employees have resigned recently, but there many complaints from employees on social media.
Many small companies grew strongly, such as Tuniu up by 140% and Kanzhun up by 46%.
Weibo’s advertising revenue decreased, while most companies’ ad revenues have recovered.


China Consumption Weekly (18 Mar 2024): Great Wall, KE, Tuniu, Tuhu Car, Boss Zhipin, Weibo

China

Weibo Corp operates as a social media platform for people to create, distribute and discover Chinese language contents. The Company offers users public self expression in real time with a powerful platform for social interaction, as well as content aggregation and distribution. Weibo enables its advertising and marketing customers to promote their brands and services to users.

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Weibo (9898 HK)

BABA's Babies: They're All Grown Now! Weibo the Twitter of China

Weibo is trading at low valuations and it has potential synergies with its parent Alibaba. Weibo can benefit from Alibaba's social media ecosystem...

David Mudd

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

BILIBILI (BILI US): Can Achieving Breakeven Justify US$10bn Market Cap?

Simply achieving breakeven can't justify BILI's US$10bn market cap. Expect the company to be a leaner, profitable company yet without bright...

Eric Chen

Technically Speaking: Hong Kong Strategy in the Secular Bull Market

Hong Kong markets are now in a correction in a secular bull market. There are now opportunities to rotate into long term investments which will...

David Mudd

China Consumption Weekly (18 Mar 2024): Great Wall, KE, Tuniu, Tuhu Car, Boss Zhipin, Weibo

The company denied that many employees have resigned recently. Many small companies grew strongly, such as Tuniu up by 140% and Kanzhun up by 46%....

Ming Lu

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