Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices. Companies mentioned this week:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3826:1" rel="noopener">Weibo Corp (WB US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iqiyi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26755:1" rel="noopener">iQIYI Inc (IQ US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group (9901 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tal-education-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1124:1" rel="noopener">TAL Education (TAL US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gaotu-techedu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28069:1" rel="noopener">Gaotu Techedu (GOTU US)</a>

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices. Companies mentioned this week:Tencent (700 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Weibo Corp (WB US), SK Hynix (000660 KS), DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US), iQIYI Inc (IQ US), New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group (9901 HK), TAL Education (TAL US), Gaotu Techedu (GOTU US) 

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 23 July 2021

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to our view that the market remains mixed-yet-constructive overall. We explain our outlook below. The S&amp;P 500 remains bullish, progressing past our first target of 4350 and now on its way to our next target of 4400-4406. As long as 4257-4275 support holds, we expect to see 4400 followed by 4460. Should 4257 fail to hold, our next support levels to watch would be 4164 followed by 4120; we are constructive as long as 4120 holds.

Our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to our view that the market remains mixed-yet-constructive overall. We explain our outlook below. The S&amp;P 500 remains bullish, progressing past our first target of 4350 and now on its way to our next target of 4400-4406. As long as 4257-4275 support holds, we expect to see 4400 followed by 4460. Should 4257 fail to hold, our next support levels to watch would be 4164 followed by 4120; we are constructive as long as 4120 holds.

U.S. Equity Strategy: SPX 4400 Target In Sight

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

In our previous note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-kanzhun-full-truck-and-didi-regulators-sending-a-message" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs - Kanzhun, Full Truck and Didi - Regulators Sending a Message,</a> we spoke about the recent crackdown on the three US listed firms. Since then more news has been coming in along the same theme of a general crackdown on overseas listings for Chinese companies. 
<div>
We have looked at the ADRs in the past, in our previous notes:
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-deep-dive-yin-and-yang" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang,</a> published in Feb 2020,  we looked at the background and rules around undertaking a secondary listing in Hong Kong and then came up with a short-list of companies that might undertake a secondary listing. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-covid-19-has-increased-the-tension-but-narrowed-the-short-list" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List</a> published in May 2020, we looked at the recent developments and provided an revised short-list</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-holding-foreign-companies-accountable-act-i-m-coming-home" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home</a>, published in May 2020, we spoke about the implication of the act which had made its way through the senate.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-pipeline-looks-rich-have-three-years-to-move" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing - Pipeline Looks Rich, Have Three Years to Move</a>, published in Feb 2021 we looked at the ADR pipeline and spoke about the updates from the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act becoming law and the updates at Hong Kong end as well. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-sec-notice-instead-of-three-probably-have-four-years-till-2025-correction-overdone" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs - SEC Notice - Instead of Three, Probably Have Four Years till 2025 - Correction Overdone, </a> we spoke about the new SEC notice and its implications. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-a-new-act-aims-to-put-an-end-to-china-adr-ipos" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs - A New Act Aims to Put an End to China ADR IPOs</a>, we spoke about the No IPOs for Unaccountable Actors Act, which aims to prohibit IPO on U.S. exchanges for Chinese companies. </li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
In this note, we'll talk about the implications of the recent China regulatory announcements.
</div>

In our previous note China ADRs - Kanzhun, Full Truck and Didi - Regulators Sending a Message, we spoke about the recent crackdown on the three US listed firms. Since then more news has been coming in along the same theme of a general crackdown on overseas listings for Chinese companies. 

We have looked at the ADRs in the past, in our previous notes:




China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang, published in Feb 2020,  we looked at the background and rules around undertaking a secondary listing in Hong Kong and then came up with a short-list of companies that might undertake a secondary listing. 

In China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List published in May 2020, we looked at the recent developments and provided an revised short-list
In China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home, published in May 2020, we spoke about the implication of the act which had made its way through the senate.
In China ADRs Secondary Listing - Pipeline Looks Rich, Have Three Years to Move, published in Feb 2021 we looked at the ADR pipeline and spoke about the updates from the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act becoming law and the updates at Hong Kong end as well. 
In China ADRs - SEC Notice - Instead of Three, Probably Have Four Years till 2025 - Correction Overdone,  we spoke about the new SEC notice and its implications. 
In China ADRs - A New Act Aims to Put an End to China ADR IPOs, we spoke about the No IPOs for Unaccountable Actors Act, which aims to prohibit IPO on U.S. exchanges for Chinese companies. 



In this note, we'll talk about the implications of the recent China regulatory announcements.


China ADRs - Now the Message Is Loud and Getting Clearer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

On 6 July 2020, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sina-corp-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22691:1" rel="noopener">Sina Corp (Class A) (SINA US)</a> made an <a href="http://ir.sina.com/index.php/static-files/69e95aee-2729-457f-be56-73628090b8ea" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> they had received a preliminary non-binding “going private” proposal from New Wave MMXV - a company controlled by its chairman and CEO Charles Chao. The bid was US$41/share. The GlobalTimes had an <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1202472.shtml" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> where sources opined Sina would "go home" to list in HK or on the STAR Market. This was followed by an <a href="http://ir.sina.com/static-files/de1ddd0f-354f-42de-9b33-b1bc414ab1b4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Agreement and Plan of Merger</a> pursuant to which New Wave would acquire all of outstanding ordinary shares not owned at US$43.30/share. Shareholders approved the merger on <a href="http://ir.sina.com/static-files/ea4a5614-30e8-472c-895c-31e120de3261" target="_blank" rel="noopener">23 December</a> 2020.The importance of Sina Corp was that it owned a very large stake in China's premier micro-blogging (twitter-equivalent) service, operated by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3826:1" rel="noopener">Weibo Corp (Adr) (WB US)</a>. Prior to that EGM, according to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a>'s excellent write-ups of the deal in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sina-corp-management-buyout-offer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41035" rel="noopener">Sina Corp: Management Buyout Offer</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/what-s-going-on-with-sina-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48344" rel="noopener">What's Going On With Sina Corp?</a> (along with a fabulous initial cut at dissenters' appraisal rights for Chinese companies coming home in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sina-corp-appraisal-rights-and-fair-value" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41068" rel="noopener">Homecoming For Chinese Companies: Appraisal Rights &amp; Fair Value</a>), Sina had intended to issue written notices of authorization to objecting shareholders (prior to the EGM, <a href="http://ir.sina.com/static-files/722deb54-0426-4b43-a58a-1c8be8b59b61" target="_blank" rel="noopener">21.5mn shares or 35.9%</a> of the outstanding shares of Sina issued notices of objections to the company). The dissenting total was quite high, and could have been a reason for Charles Chao to walk away from the deal, but despite the "requirement" to issue authorization notices by early Feb, there was no public acknowledgment of the situation by SINA until 22 March when the company issued a <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sina-announces-completion-of-merger-301253197.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">press release</a> saying the merger had been completed.So that was done.Back in February, the Hong Kong capital markets world was atwitter (woefully bad pun intended) with the news (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-18/china-s-twitter-like-weibo-said-to-plan-hong-kong-second-listing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-weibo-hires-banks-hong-kong-secondary-listing-sources-say-2021-02-23/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters</a>, that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3826:1" rel="noopener">Weibo Corp (Adr) (WB US)</a>, China's largest micro-blogging service (China twitter) intended to launch a secondary offering in Hong Kong, like many other US ADR-listed Chinese companies, and had hired banks (GS, CLSA, CS) to do so. But since then, there has been no follow-up news. <h2>But There is Now NEW "News"... Which is Not Yet News</h2>Late in the Asia evening on 6 July 2021, Reuters had an <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-weibo-chairman-state-firm-plan-take-chinas-twitter-private-sources-2021-07-06/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">EXCLUSIVE</a> which said Weibo chairman Charles Chao - with 45% of shares out but 71% of voting rights - would team up with an as-yet unnamed Shanghai-based state firm to take the company private. One goal would be to get <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> out of their 30% stake. Two sources told Reuters the consortium plans to offer $90-100/share.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/217/007/original/Screenshot+2021-07-06+at+8.35.37+PM.png?1625574980" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="217007"></figure></section>As I wrote that sentence, the shares were indicated +30% at just over US$71/share. My first thought was that the shares would trade "wide" to these early-reported terms as there are political considerations (will the State Council appreciate that a regional SASAC puts up money to buy out an internet firm?), questions about where BABA would agree to sell, timeline, and questions about what Charles Chao and the unnamed Shanghai entity would do if materially all the minorities dissented.As I finish that paragraph, Bloomberg appears to have reached a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3826:1" rel="noopener">Weibo Corp (Adr) (WB US)</a> spokesperson who says that this rumour is not true. And a while later, we have a Weibo release which offers a pretty strong denial. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/217/010/original/Screenshot+2021-07-06+at+9.39.13+PM.png?1625578767" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="217010"></figure></section>Of course, that doesn't mean it isn't true. It just means that it isn't true for public consumption yet.But it is a big interesting situation so we take a closer look at the parameters! And the shares opened up 10%.

On 6 July 2020, Sina Corp (Class A) (SINA US) made an announcement they had received a preliminary non-binding “going private” proposal from New Wave MMXV - a company controlled by its chairman and CEO Charles Chao. The bid was US$41/share. The GlobalTimes had an article where sources opined Sina would "go home" to list in HK or on the STAR Market. This was followed by an Agreement and Plan of Merger pursuant to which New Wave would acquire all of outstanding ordinary shares not owned at US$43.30/share. Shareholders approved the merger on 23 December 2020.The importance of Sina Corp was that it owned a very large stake in China's premier micro-blogging (twitter-equivalent) service, operated by Weibo Corp (Adr) (WB US). Prior to that EGM, according to David Blennerhassett's excellent write-ups of the deal in Sina Corp: Management Buyout Offer, and What's Going On With Sina Corp? (along with a fabulous initial cut at dissenters' appraisal rights for Chinese companies coming home in Homecoming For Chinese Companies: Appraisal Rights &amp; Fair Value), Sina had intended to issue written notices of authorization to objecting shareholders (prior to the EGM, 21.5mn shares or 35.9% of the outstanding shares of Sina issued notices of objections to the company). The dissenting total was quite high, and could have been a reason for Charles Chao to walk away from the deal, but despite the "requirement" to issue authorization notices by early Feb, there was no public acknowledgment of the situation by SINA until 22 March when the company issued a press release saying the merger had been completed.So that was done.Back in February, the Hong Kong capital markets world was atwitter (woefully bad pun intended) with the news (Bloomberg, Reuters, that Weibo Corp (Adr) (WB US), China's largest micro-blogging service (China twitter) intended to launch a secondary offering in Hong Kong, like many other US ADR-listed Chinese companies, and had hired banks (GS, CLSA, CS) to do so. But since then, there has been no follow-up news. But There is Now NEW "News"... Which is Not Yet NewsLate in the Asia evening on 6 July 2021, Reuters had an EXCLUSIVE which said Weibo chairman Charles Chao - with 45% of shares out but 71% of voting rights - would team up with an as-yet unnamed Shanghai-based state firm to take the company private. One goal would be to get Alibaba Group (BABA US) out of their 30% stake. Two sources told Reuters the consortium plans to offer $90-100/share.As I wrote that sentence, the shares were indicated +30% at just over US$71/share. My first thought was that the shares would trade "wide" to these early-reported terms as there are political considerations (will the State Council appreciate that a regional SASAC puts up money to buy out an internet firm?), questions about where BABA would agree to sell, timeline, and questions about what Charles Chao and the unnamed Shanghai entity would do if materially all the minorities dissented.As I finish that paragraph, Bloomberg appears to have reached a Weibo Corp (Adr) (WB US) spokesperson who says that this rumour is not true. And a while later, we have a Weibo release which offers a pretty strong denial. Of course, that doesn't mean it isn't true. It just means that it isn't true for public consumption yet.But it is a big interesting situation so we take a closer look at the parameters! And the shares opened up 10%.

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

Well, that sure escalated quickly.Early last week, in the Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pre-ipo-esg-analysis-didi-s-exemplary-esg-achievements-eclipsed-by-regulatory-risks-and-uncertainty" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53687" rel="noopener">Pre-IPO ESG Analysis: DiDi's Exemplary ESG Achievements Eclipsed By Regulatory Risks and Uncertainty</a>, I juxtaposed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi's (DIDI US)</a> relatively strong ESG results in areas under its control with serious concerns about regulatory risk outside of its direct control.Late last week, days after DiDi's successful US$4.4 billion initial public offering, Chinese regulators ordered the removal of DiDi's business-critical ride-hailing apps from online app markets, until the company rectifies "serious violations" pertaining to collection and use of customer data.DiDi is down 5.3% so far (delayed open today).Regulatory risk was central to my thesis in the first Insight. I hardly anticipated this, but I referred to regulatory risk as real, near-term, tangible investment risk; not just some fuzzy ESG risk. Given that, I felt obliged to follow up. At the same time, however, this news is covered ad nauseam.No sense in beating a dead horse with a broken record.So, I decided to do something different. That statement about regulatory risk being a real tangible investment risk is primarily based on anecdotal evidence – i.e., when regulators flex their muscle, stocks go down, not up. But "anecdotal" isn't good enough.Which is why I took this opportunity to quantify the impacts of adverse regulatory events in China. Specifically, with event studies measuring abnormal returns around major regulatory events across four broad categories. That's what most of this Insight is about. But back to DiDi for a moment.Regulatory risk and uncertainty for DiDi is much worse today than it was last week. Typically, the opposite would be true; a negative event out in the open is better than a possible event lurking in the shadows. But not this time. Barring an immediate change of heart by the PRC, this is bad.Therefore, downgrading to bearish.

Well, that sure escalated quickly.Early last week, in the Insight Pre-IPO ESG Analysis: DiDi's Exemplary ESG Achievements Eclipsed By Regulatory Risks and Uncertainty, I juxtaposed DiDi's (DIDI US) relatively strong ESG results in areas under its control with serious concerns about regulatory risk outside of its direct control.Late last week, days after DiDi's successful US$4.4 billion initial public offering, Chinese regulators ordered the removal of DiDi's business-critical ride-hailing apps from online app markets, until the company rectifies "serious violations" pertaining to collection and use of customer data.DiDi is down 5.3% so far (delayed open today).Regulatory risk was central to my thesis in the first Insight. I hardly anticipated this, but I referred to regulatory risk as real, near-term, tangible investment risk; not just some fuzzy ESG risk. Given that, I felt obliged to follow up. At the same time, however, this news is covered ad nauseam.No sense in beating a dead horse with a broken record.So, I decided to do something different. That statement about regulatory risk being a real tangible investment risk is primarily based on anecdotal evidence – i.e., when regulators flex their muscle, stocks go down, not up. But "anecdotal" isn't good enough.Which is why I took this opportunity to quantify the impacts of adverse regulatory events in China. Specifically, with event studies measuring abnormal returns around major regulatory events across four broad categories. That's what most of this Insight is about. But back to DiDi for a moment.Regulatory risk and uncertainty for DiDi is much worse today than it was last week. Typically, the opposite would be true; a negative event out in the open is better than a possible event lurking in the shadows. But not this time. Barring an immediate change of heart by the PRC, this is bad.Therefore, downgrading to bearish.

PRC Shows DiDi Who's Boss: An Analysis of Adverse Regulatory Events on Stock Prices

China

Weibo Corp is a social media platform for people to create, distribute and discover Chinese-language content.  The Company offers users public self-expression in real time with a powerful platform for social interaction, as well as content aggregation and distribution.

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Weibo Corp (WB US)

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 23 July 2021

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity...

Wium Malan, CFA

U.S. Equity Strategy: SPX 4400 Target In Sight

The S&P 500 remains bullish, progressing past our first target of 4350 and now on its way to our next target of 4400-4406. As long as 4257-4275...

Vermilion Research

China ADRs - Now the Message Is Loud and Getting Clearer

In our previous note we spoke about the recent crackdown on the three US listed firms. Since then more news has been coming in along the same theme...

Sumeet Singh

What's Going On With Weibo?

Weibo was in the news as a story suggested the chairman would join with a state entity to take the company private. This was denied shortly after....

Travis Lundy

PRC Shows DiDi Who's Boss: An Analysis of Adverse Regulatory Events on Stock Prices

Last week, I wrote about DiDi's regulatory risk. This week, it's worse. Hence the downgrade. But this is mostly an analysis of how regulatory...

Kyle Rudden

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