Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Waystar Holding,  American provider of mission-critical cloud software to healthcare organizations, completed its IPO in June and raised ~$968M to repay outstanding indebtedness.</li>
<li>Waystar Holding shares have outperformed the Nasdaq Composite Index (+31.5%) in 2024 with shares up ~44% year-to-date. IPO investors are also up ~44%.  </li>
<li>I expect downward pressure on the stock as IPO lock-up period ends on December 6th, 2024, and all ~176M Waystar Holding shares will be eligible for trading.  </li>
</ul>


Waystar Holding,  American provider of mission-critical cloud software to healthcare organizations, completed its IPO in June and raised ~$968M to repay outstanding indebtedness.
Waystar Holding shares have outperformed the Nasdaq Composite Index (+31.5%) in 2024 with shares up ~44% year-to-date. IPO investors are also up ~44%.  
I expect downward pressure on the stock as IPO lock-up period ends on December 6th, 2024, and all ~176M Waystar Holding shares will be eligible for trading.  


Waystar IPO Lock-Up: CPPIB and EQT Recorded Large Gains Since IPO and $2.7B Deal With Bain Capital

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, Ortex

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

Ortex

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waystar-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40287:1" rel="noopener">Waystar Holding (WAY US)</a> is forecasted to pass the mcap and fcap thresholds for the small-cap segment and get added at the November 2024 review.</li>
<li>The company currently passes the higher regional mcap and fcap thresholds for the small-cap segment at the December 2024 review.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waystar-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40287:1" rel="noopener">Waystar Holding (WAY US)</a> risks failing the fcap threshold at the December 2024 review if the stock price falls back to the IPO price levels.</li>
</ul>



Waystar Holding (WAY US) is forecasted to pass the mcap and fcap thresholds for the small-cap segment and get added at the November 2024 review.
The company currently passes the higher regional mcap and fcap thresholds for the small-cap segment at the December 2024 review.

Waystar Holding (WAY US) risks failing the fcap threshold at the December 2024 review if the stock price falls back to the IPO price levels.


Waystar Holding (WAY US): Clear WAY to One Global Index, Rocky Road to the Other.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Waystar Holding, provider of mission-critical cloud software to healthcare organizations, set terms for an IPO and plans to raise ~$970M in the upcoming Nasdaq offering.</li>
<li>The initial public offering is expected to be between $20.00 and $23.00. At the midpoint, Waystar Holding has a market value of ~$3.7B based on 173.4M fully diluted shares.</li>
<li>In my insight, I discuss valuation framework for comparable company analysis and research multiples of M&amp;A transactions, including Athenahealth, Cerner and Change Healthcare. </li>
</ul>


Waystar Holding, provider of mission-critical cloud software to healthcare organizations, set terms for an IPO and plans to raise ~$970M in the upcoming Nasdaq offering.
The initial public offering is expected to be between $20.00 and $23.00. At the midpoint, Waystar Holding has a market value of ~$3.7B based on 173.4M fully diluted shares.
In my insight, I discuss valuation framework for comparable company analysis and research multiples of M&amp;A transactions, including Athenahealth, Cerner and Change Healthcare. 


Waystar Holding: IPO Price (Midpoint): $21.50. PT: $17.50, ~19% Downside. Move To Sidelines

<ul>
<li>Waystar Holding will be valued like other unprofitable healthcare IT unicorns on a multiple of forward revenue. I used EV/Revenue valuation methodology and FY23 EV/Revenue multiples to value the Waystar. </li>
<li>In 2019, CPPIB and EQT acquired a majority stake in Waystar, valuing the company at $2.7B, which implies an EV/FY23E revenue multiple of ~ 6x, including a debt of ~$2.3B. </li>
<li>My ~$3.6B IPO valuation contemplates a ~5x EV/Revenue on my FY23E revenue of $795M and is supported by my analysis of healthcare IT comps. </li>
</ul>


Waystar Holding will be valued like other unprofitable healthcare IT unicorns on a multiple of forward revenue. I used EV/Revenue valuation methodology and FY23 EV/Revenue multiples to value the Waystar. 
In 2019, CPPIB and EQT acquired a majority stake in Waystar, valuing the company at $2.7B, which implies an EV/FY23E revenue multiple of ~ 6x, including a debt of ~$2.3B. 
My ~$3.6B IPO valuation contemplates a ~5x EV/Revenue on my FY23E revenue of $795M and is supported by my analysis of healthcare IT comps. 


Waystar IPO Valuation Analysis: Lack of Bullish Catalysts and Weak Post-Listing Performance

<ul>
<li>Waystar Holding, a cloud-based technology company and healthcare RCM solution provider, filed for a $100M placeholder IPO.</li>
<li>Founded in 2017 through the merger of two healthcare firms, ZirMed and Navicure, Waystar Holding provides mission-critical cloud software to healthcare organizations in the United States. </li>
<li>The company has ~$2.3B of outstanding borrowings and plans to use net proceeds from an upcoming IPO to repay outstanding indebtedness under credit facilities. </li>
</ul>


Waystar Holding, a cloud-based technology company and healthcare RCM solution provider, filed for a $100M placeholder IPO.
Founded in 2017 through the merger of two healthcare firms, ZirMed and Navicure, Waystar Holding provides mission-critical cloud software to healthcare organizations in the United States. 
The company has ~$2.3B of outstanding borrowings and plans to use net proceeds from an upcoming IPO to repay outstanding indebtedness under credit facilities. 


Waystar IPO Preview: Debt-Fueled Expansion Through M&A Deals In A High-Interest Rate Environment

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Waystar Holding (WAY US)

Waystar IPO Lock-Up: CPPIB and EQT Recorded Large Gains Since IPO and $2.7B Deal With Bain Capital

Waystar Holding, a healthcare RCM solution provider, completed an IPO in June and raised ~$968M. Its IPO lock-up period expires on December 6th, 2024.

Andrei Zakharov