Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

<h2><strong>Summary points</strong></h2><ul>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves the analysis.  The dollar and oil/commodities are different and should be treated as such.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>Fundamental factors of supply and demand provide a mixed picture for oil.  The 'energy feedback loop' is often overlooked.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>The best the <em>market</em> can do is assume that today's real oil price will be the oil price in 12 months time.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight">
<strong>Financialisation of commodities is a big</strong>…</div></li>
</ul>

Summary points
1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion.
Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves the analysis.  The dollar and oil/commodities are different and should be treated as such.
Fundamental factors of supply and demand provide a mixed picture for oil.  The 'energy feedback loop' is often overlooked.
The best the market can do is assume that today's real oil price will be the oil price in 12 months time.

Financialisation of commodities is a big…


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p><strong>Chartonics webcast </strong>Tuesday 22 March 2016 </p><div><strong>Asia FX action</strong></div><p>To view click on this link:  <strong><a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp</a> </strong>5:15 min.</p><p>We run through trade points in Asia FX.</p><div>
<strong>INR</strong> - Still short USD to 65.90, uptick is viewed as corrective and not a bad place to add to USD short.</div><div>
<strong>KRW</strong> - Our USD 1,175 short hit our trailing limit at 1,167 for a minor gain. We maintain our USD bearish call to 1,140 for those still holding the USD short. At 1,140-42 would be covering ST short and probing for a USD buy…</div>

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 22 March 2016 Asia FX actionTo view click on this link:  http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp 5:15 min.We run through trade points in Asia FX.
INR - Still short USD to 65.90, uptick is viewed as corrective and not a bad place to add to USD short.
KRW - Our USD 1,175 short hit our trailing limit at 1,167 for a minor gain. We maintain our USD bearish call to 1,140 for those still holding the USD short. At 1,140-42 would be covering ST short and probing for a USD buy…

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li class="p1">Exploration and production companies have long relied on capital markets to fund stellar growth, perhaps assuming that persistently high commodity prices would drive sufficiently strong returns in the future to justify their initial excesses.</li><li class="p1">But with crude prices now at once-in-a-generation lows and with a recovery still probably several quarters away, shale producers have been forced to adapt to an environment that few (if any) were built to profitably operate in.</li></ul><p class="p1"><em>Analyst: David Meats</em></p>

Exploration and production companies have long relied on capital markets to fund stellar growth, perhaps assuming that persistently high commodity prices would drive sufficiently strong returns in the future to justify their initial excesses.But with crude prices now at once-in-a-generation lows and with a recovery still probably several quarters away, shale producers have been forced to adapt to an environment that few (if any) were built to profitably operate in.Analyst: David Meats

<p>Given the large discrepancy that has emerged between 2017-18 Brent futures prices (currently $40-$47 per barrel) and the Morningstar energy team's outlook for midterm oil industry fundamentals, we are amending our methodology for forecasting near-term oil and gas prices.</p><p>Based on our current expectation that oil supply and demand will come into balance in mid-2017, we are launching updated Brent forecasts of $50-$55 for the second half of 2017 and $55-$60 for 2018 (approximately 20% higher than current strip prices on average). </p><p>We will update our oil and gas producer valuations with this new pricing by the end of the current earnings period.</p><p><em>Analyst: Lorraine Tan, CFA</em></p><p> </p>

Given the large discrepancy that has emerged between 2017-18 Brent futures prices (currently $40-$47 per barrel) and the Morningstar energy team's outlook for midterm oil industry fundamentals, we are amending our methodology for forecasting near-term oil and gas prices.Based on our current expectation that oil supply and demand will come into balance in mid-2017, we are launching updated Brent forecasts of $50-$55 for the second half of 2017 and $55-$60 for 2018 (approximately 20% higher than current strip prices on average). We will update our oil and gas producer valuations with this new pricing by the end of the current earnings period.Analyst: Lorraine Tan, CFA 

Oil and Gas Price Outlook: Updating Our Near-Term Methodology for Forecasting Prices

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

<p><em>S interest rates have fallen significantly this year (-36bp) reducing the USD yield advantage.  This has been matched by the GBP and CAD, but AUD and NZD rates have been much more stable than previous episodes of global risk aversion. The Fed is sticking to its outlook for gradual policy tightening, but weak growth is expected to be reported in Q4, activity indicators are weak heading into 2016, medium and longer term inflation expectations are down sharply, and the only plank left supporting rate hike forecasts is the solid labor market.  However, recent unemployment claims have drifted up, and a considerable pause in US rates appears likely.  The US economy has been dragged back to the pack to some extent by the deep fall in oil prices.  While the US energy sector is not all that large, it is much more cyclical than OPEC countries, and activity in this sector has been a factor slowing the US economy.   We may be moving into a phase where confidence in the US economy is waning.  This may tend to weaken the USD in 2016.  Global risk aversion and weaker commodity prices may also weaken commodity and emerging market currencies, but if perceptions on US monetary policy change enough, even these currencies may recover at some point.</em></p>

S interest rates have fallen significantly this year (-36bp) reducing the USD yield advantage.  This has been matched by the GBP and CAD, but AUD and NZD rates have been much more stable than previous episodes of global risk aversion. The Fed is sticking to its outlook for gradual policy tightening, but weak growth is expected to be reported in Q4, activity indicators are weak heading into 2016, medium and longer term inflation expectations are down sharply, and the only plank left supporting rate hike forecasts is the solid labor market.  However, recent unemployment claims have drifted up, and a considerable pause in US rates appears likely.  The US economy has been dragged back to the pack to some extent by the deep fall in oil prices.  While the US energy sector is not all that large, it is much more cyclical than OPEC countries, and activity in this sector has been a factor slowing the US economy.   We may be moving into a phase where confidence in the US economy is waning.  This may tend to weaken the USD in 2016.  Global risk aversion and weaker commodity prices may also weaken commodity and emerging market currencies, but if perceptions on US monetary policy change enough, even these currencies may recover at some point.

Australia

Washington H. Soul Pattinson & Company Limited is an investment holding company. The Company owns shares and properties, coal mining, bulk handling, commercial television licensee, telecommunications carrier, merchant banking, funds management, pharmaceutical retailing, manufacture, processing and marketing of biscuits and cakes.

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)

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Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)

Oil After 50%: Where Now for Stocks?

Summary points 1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion. Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves...

Mark Artherton

Asia FX Action Points

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 22 March 2016 Asia FX actionTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp 5:15 min.We run through...

Thomas Schroeder

Moat or Mother Fracker?

Exploration and production companies have long relied on capital markets to fund stellar growth, perhaps assuming that persistently high commodity...

Morningstar, Inc.

Oil and Gas Price Outlook: Updating Our Near-Term Methodology for Forecasting Prices

Given the large discrepancy that has emerged between 2017-18 Brent futures prices (currently $40-$47 per barrel) and the Morningstar energy team's...

Morningstar, Inc.

Confidence in Fed Hikes Waning

S interest rates have fallen significantly this year (-36bp) reducing the USD yield advantage. This has been matched by the GBP and CAD, but AUD...

Greg Gibbs

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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