Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The number of risk-on signals continues to grow, while risk-off signals remain virtually non-existent. We will be sure to point it out when this dynamic starts to change</li>
<li>In the meantime, we want to continue riding this bull market higher, and our bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq 100 (since early-November 2023) remains intact.</li>
<li>Gold is breaking out of a 3.5-year base to all-time closing highs -- buy. Silver is breaking out above a 3-month base at $23.50. Fueled by toppy DXY and rates</li>
</ul>


The number of risk-on signals continues to grow, while risk-off signals remain virtually non-existent. We will be sure to point it out when this dynamic starts to change
In the meantime, we want to continue riding this bull market higher, and our bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq 100 (since early-November 2023) remains intact.
Gold is breaking out of a 3.5-year base to all-time closing highs -- buy. Silver is breaking out above a 3-month base at $23.50. Fueled by toppy DXY and rates


Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a> has entered a scheme implementation deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cie-de-saint-gobain" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21547:1" rel="noopener">Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)</a> at A$9.00 per share, a 32.9% premium to the undisturbed price (20 February).</li>
<li>The offer has a ticking fee of A$0.02 per month (accrued daily) if the scheme’s effective date is delayed beyond 26 June. The offer requires FIRB approval. </li>
<li>The offer is attractive and represents a 15-year high. At the last close and for a mid-June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.4%/28.8%.</li>
</ul>



CSR Ltd (CSR AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) at A$9.00 per share, a 32.9% premium to the undisturbed price (20 February).
The offer has a ticking fee of A$0.02 per month (accrued daily) if the scheme’s effective date is delayed beyond 26 June. The offer requires FIRB approval. 
The offer is attractive and represents a 15-year high. At the last close and for a mid-June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.4%/28.8%.


CSR (CSR AU): Saint-Gobain’s Binding Proposal at A$9.00

<ul>
<li>In response to media speculation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cie-de-saint-gobain" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21547:1" rel="noopener">Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)</a> confirmed a non-binding proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a> at A$9.00, a 32.9% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>Saint-Gobain is conducting confirmatory due diligence. CSR is at a trading halt concerning receiving a proposal regarding a potential material transaction involving CSR.</li>
<li>Shareholders should be supportive as the offer represents a 15-year high. The timing of a binding agreement is the key risk.  </li>
</ul>


In response to media speculation, Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) confirmed a non-binding proposal for CSR Ltd (CSR AU) at A$9.00, a 32.9% premium to the undisturbed price.
Saint-Gobain is conducting confirmatory due diligence. CSR is at a trading halt concerning receiving a proposal regarding a potential material transaction involving CSR.
Shareholders should be supportive as the offer represents a 15-year high. The timing of a binding agreement is the key risk.  


CSR (CSR AU): Saint-Gobain’s Non-Binding Proposal at A$9.00

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)</a> has launched a takeover offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boral-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1487:1" rel="noopener">Boral Ltd (BLD AU)</a>. The minimum consideration is A$6.05 (A$1.50 cash and 0.1116 SVW shares per BLD share).</li>
<li>Based on SVW reaching certain voting thresholds, the offer could be increased by an additional A$0.20 cash per share, implying a maximum consideration of A$6.25 per share.</li>
<li>While the low offer premium could deter acceptances, SVW aims to spur acceptances by warning it will delist BLD and not pay dividends for the foreseeable future. </li>
</ul>



Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) has launched a takeover offer for Boral Ltd (BLD AU). The minimum consideration is A$6.05 (A$1.50 cash and 0.1116 SVW shares per BLD share).
Based on SVW reaching certain voting thresholds, the offer could be increased by an additional A$0.20 cash per share, implying a maximum consideration of A$6.25 per share.
While the low offer premium could deter acceptances, SVW aims to spur acceptances by warning it will delist BLD and not pay dividends for the foreseeable future. 


Boral (BLD AU): Seven Group (SVW AU)’s Carrot and Stick Offer

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Having lagged competitors on share price basis since Holcim/Lafarge merger, on 29 January, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/holcim-ltd-7f60ceaa-51af-4f85-ac5f-114595eb04f3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27916:1" rel="noopener">Holcim (HOLN SW)</a> announced plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US.</li>
<li>Infrastructure and housing are reponsible for U.S. comparables to trade on 14.7x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA, in sharp contrast to 5.4x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA of European comparables. </li>
<li>Even if valuing the RoW business at the lower median European multiples, the spin-off should be value accretive. My fair value estimate of CHF 84.47/share represents 25.7% upside.</li>
</ul>


Having lagged competitors on share price basis since Holcim/Lafarge merger, on 29 January, Holcim (HOLN SW) announced plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US.
Infrastructure and housing are reponsible for U.S. comparables to trade on 14.7x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA, in sharp contrast to 5.4x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA of European comparables. 
Even if valuing the RoW business at the lower median European multiples, the spin-off should be value accretive. My fair value estimate of CHF 84.47/share represents 25.7% upside.


United States

Vulcan Materials Company produces construction aggregates.  The Company principal product lines are aggregates, asphalt mix and concrete, and cement.

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Vulcan Materials Co (VMC US)

Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over

Gold $GLD $GC_F Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as $DXY and Treasury Yields Roll Over $TNX $TYX; Seeing More Risk-On Signals, Not Less....

Vermilion Research

CSR (CSR AU): Saint-Gobain’s Binding Proposal at A$9.00

The offer is attractive and represents a 15-year high. At the last close and for a mid-June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.4%/28.8%.

Arun George

CSR (CSR AU): Saint-Gobain’s Non-Binding Proposal at A$9.00

Shareholders should be supportive as the offer represents a 15-year high. The timing of a binding agreement is the key risk.

Arun George

Boral (BLD AU): Seven Group (SVW AU)’s Carrot and Stick Offer

While the low offer premium could deter acceptances, SVW aims to spur acceptances by warning it will delist BLD and not pay dividends for the...

Arun George

Value from US Spin-Off

Holcim plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US, which should be value accretive and could result in a 25.7% upside.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over

Gold $GLD $GC_F Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as $DXY and Treasury Yields Roll Over $TNX $TYX; Seeing More Risk-On Signals, Not Less....

Vermilion Research

CSR (CSR AU): Saint-Gobain’s Binding Proposal at A$9.00

The offer is attractive and represents a 15-year high. At the last close and for a mid-June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.4%/28.8%.

Arun George

CSR (CSR AU): Saint-Gobain’s Non-Binding Proposal at A$9.00

Shareholders should be supportive as the offer represents a 15-year high. The timing of a binding agreement is the key risk.

Arun George

Boral (BLD AU): Seven Group (SVW AU)’s Carrot and Stick Offer

While the low offer premium could deter acceptances, SVW aims to spur acceptances by warning it will delist BLD and not pay dividends for the...

Arun George

Value from US Spin-Off

​Holcim plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US, which should be value accretive and could result in a 25.7% upside.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Holcim plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US, which should be value accretive and could result in a 25.7% upside.