Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/havells-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9158:1" rel="noopener">Havells India (HAVL IN)</a> has chosen the route of instant gratification by not increasing prices and gaining market share for Lloyd this AC Season. </li>
<li>After-Sales Service and aspirational value for the Lloyd brand is poor, there is no brand loyalty in the segments Lloyd operates in and is price sensitive. </li>
<li>Increased prices and course correction by  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/voltas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19924:1" rel="noopener">Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN)</a> could result in HAVL giving up some of its recent market share gains building a stronger Bear case for HAVL. </li>
</ul>


We believe Havells India (HAVL IN) has chosen the route of instant gratification by not increasing prices and gaining market share for Lloyd this AC Season. 
After-Sales Service and aspirational value for the Lloyd brand is poor, there is no brand loyalty in the segments Lloyd operates in and is price sensitive. 
Increased prices and course correction by  Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) could result in HAVL giving up some of its recent market share gains building a stronger Bear case for HAVL. 


Havells India (HAVL IN) | Instant Gratification?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/voltas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19924:1" rel="noopener">Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN)</a> had a brutal Q4FY24 especially for its UPC segment where it lost market share to rival <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/havells-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9158:1" rel="noopener">Havells India (HAVL IN)</a>.  </li>
<li>There is a possibility of regaining some of the lost market share with some pricing interventions and high brand equity, however, it will be at cost of margins. </li>
<li>The sector view remains bearish, however, relative to HAVL, the downside would be limited with market share gains in Air-Conditioners (ACs) as key monitorable. </li>
</ul>



Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) had a brutal Q4FY24 especially for its UPC segment where it lost market share to rival Havells India (HAVL IN).  
There is a possibility of regaining some of the lost market share with some pricing interventions and high brand equity, however, it will be at cost of margins. 
The sector view remains bearish, however, relative to HAVL, the downside would be limited with market share gains in Air-Conditioners (ACs) as key monitorable. 


Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) | Expected to Fight Back

<ul>
<li>The overall Air Condition (AC) season has been good, with volumes up by more than +20% compared to the last two years.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daikin-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16696:1" rel="noopener">Daikin Industries (6367 JP)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/voltas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19924:1" rel="noopener">Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN)</a> have performed below expectations with stiff pricing and poor dealer support. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/havells-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9158:1" rel="noopener">Havells India (HAVL IN)</a> (Lloyd) market share gain is on the back of lower prices. The focus has moved from premiumizing brand &amp; expanding margins to gaining market share. </li>
</ul>


The overall Air Condition (AC) season has been good, with volumes up by more than +20% compared to the last two years.

Daikin Industries (6367 JP) &amp; Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) have performed below expectations with stiff pricing and poor dealer support. 

Havells India (HAVL IN) (Lloyd) market share gain is on the back of lower prices. The focus has moved from premiumizing brand &amp; expanding margins to gaining market share. 


India Channel Insight #36 | Daikin, Havells, Voltas

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<div><div><div><ul><li>Voltas: Voltas Q4 performance was quite unique; in a strong onset of summer, the market leader lost market share in room air conditioner (RAC) category.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>The industry is witnessing robust demand after the slump of the last two summer seasons, while many markets and brands are witnessing a stock-out situation.</li></ul></div></div></div><div><div><div><ul><li>Navin Fluorine International: We retain our BUY rating on NFIL, with a target price of INR 4,640 on the back of (1) earnings visibility, given long-term contracts;</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Voltas: Voltas Q4 performance was quite unique; in a strong onset of summer, the market leader lost market share in room air conditioner (RAC) category.The industry is witnessing robust demand after the slump of the last two summer seasons, while many markets and brands are witnessing a stock-out situation.Navin Fluorine International: We retain our BUY rating on NFIL, with a target price of INR 4,640 on the back of (1) earnings visibility, given long-term contracts;Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Voltas, Navin Fluorine International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Edelweiss Broking Limited

Edelweiss

Edelweiss Broking Limited

Edelweiss Broking Limited is an Indian Financial services company based in Mumbai, India. The company is a subsidiary of Edelweiss Group. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Voltas (VOLT) reported a mixed set of numbers in Q3FY22. Revenue/PAT de-grew by 10%/25% YoY (below our estimates by 4.6%/22%)</li><li>On the other hand, EBITDA grew by 6.7% YoY (above our estimates by 6%)</li><li>The company witnessed lower growth in UCP (up 9% YoY); EMPS (down 34.6% YoY) was below expectations.</li></ul><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Voltas (VOLT) reported a mixed set of numbers in Q3FY22. Revenue/PAT de-grew by 10%/25% YoY (below our estimates by 4.6%/22%)On the other hand, EBITDA grew by 6.7% YoY (above our estimates by 6%)The company witnessed lower growth in UCP (up 9% YoY); EMPS (down 34.6% YoY) was below expectations.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Voltas Ltd: Improvement in Margins Led by Healthy Execution, While Missed Profitability

India

Voltas Limited offers engineering solutions for a wide spectrum of industries in areas such as heating, ventilation and air conditioning, refrigeration, electro-mechanical projects, textile machinery, machine tools, mining and construction equipment, materials handling, water management, building management systems, indoor air quality and chemicals.

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Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN)

Havells India (HAVL IN) | Instant Gratification?

Havells India (HAVL IN) market share gains are expected to be shorted lived, Voltas is expected to fight back and hence the bear case for HAVL.

Pranav Bhavsar