Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.
We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.


Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since mid-January, spreads have tightened, same as in December, across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have tightened, 6 widened).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Danieli, Grifols, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-January, spreads have tightened, same as in December, across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have tightened, 6 widened).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Danieli, Grifols, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February‘24 Report

We aggregate key quotes from earnings, The Transcript

The Transcript

We aggregate key quotes from earnings

Aggregate Key Quotes from Earnings

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Companies are expecting the Federal Reserve to reduce rates to ease the burden on consumers and boost confidence in markets.</li><li>Inflation is still a concern for many companies, particularly at the high end, but the Fed cannot act until there is substantial data showing a decrease in inflation.</li><li>The lower income consumers are trading down and experiencing financial difficulties, with subprime delinquencies reaching levels similar to 2009, which is concerning for the market. </li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Companies are expecting the Federal Reserve to reduce rates to ease the burden on consumers and boost confidence in markets.Inflation is still a concern for many companies, particularly at the high end, but the Fed cannot act until there is substantial data showing a decrease in inflation.The lower income consumers are trading down and experiencing financial difficulties, with subprime delinquencies reaching levels similar to 2009, which is concerning for the market. This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

<ul>
<li>The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly tightened during January. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.5% (vs. 49.1%); GBL, 37.1% (vs. 36.6%); Heineken Holding, 16.6% (vs. 16.7%); </li>
<li>Industrivärden C, 3.8% (vs. 5.4%); Investor B, 7.9% (vs. 13.5%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 42% (vs. 37.1%). The spread of Rio DLC widened to 25.2% (vs. 24.2%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting: in holding trades, GBL/vs. listed assets, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC: long RIO LN/short RIO AU.</li>
</ul>


The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly tightened during January. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.5% (vs. 49.1%); GBL, 37.1% (vs. 36.6%); Heineken Holding, 16.6% (vs. 16.7%); 
Industrivärden C, 3.8% (vs. 5.4%); Investor B, 7.9% (vs. 13.5%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 42% (vs. 37.1%). The spread of Rio DLC widened to 25.2% (vs. 24.2%).
What seems interesting: in holding trades, GBL/vs. listed assets, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC: long RIO LN/short RIO AU.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: January’24 Report

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The de facto beneficiary of the EU EV subsidy, and historically, 46% of the sales were generated from Audi and BMW EVs. </li>
<li>Valuation has hit the trough, but with no positive catalyst in sight, it is difficult to make a bull case for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-sdi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:503:1" rel="noopener">Samsung SDI (006400 KS)</a> .</li>
<li>If the EU put up higher trade tariff for Chinese EV, it could jolt up SDI's share price but until then, stay away. </li>
</ul>


The de facto beneficiary of the EU EV subsidy, and historically, 46% of the sales were generated from Audi and BMW EVs. 
Valuation has hit the trough, but with no positive catalyst in sight, it is difficult to make a bull case for Samsung SDI (006400 KS) .
If the EU put up higher trade tariff for Chinese EV, it could jolt up SDI's share price but until then, stay away. 


Samsung SDI (006400): No Catalyst in Sight

Germany

Volkswagen AG manufactures and sells vehicles. The Company offers economy and luxury automobiles, sports cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. Volkswagen serves customers worldwide.

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Volkswagen (VOW GR)

Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Bullish Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over, 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX Rolling Over; More Global Indexes Breaking Out (Israel, Germany, Sweden). Buys...

Vermilion Research

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February‘24 Report

Since mid-January, spreads have tightened, same as in December, across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Episode 112: Subprime Signals

Companies are counting on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in order to boost consumer confidence and market trends, while inflation...

The Transcript

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: January’24 Report

Discounts to NAV for covered holdcos mainly tightened in January. What seems interesting: Interesting trades: GBL vs. listed assets, Porsche SE...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Samsung SDI (006400): No Catalyst in Sight

Samsung SDI is the de facto beneficiary of the EU subsidies for EV but it has taken a toll recently thus probably makes sense to stay away until...

Henry Soediarko

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Bullish Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over, 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX Rolling Over; More Global Indexes Breaking Out (Israel, Germany, Sweden). Buys...

Vermilion Research

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February‘24 Report

Since mid-January, spreads have tightened, same as in December, across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Episode 112: Subprime Signals

Companies are counting on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in order to boost consumer confidence and market trends, while inflation...

The Transcript

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: January’24 Report

​Discounts to NAV for covered holdcos mainly tightened in January. What seems interesting: Interesting trades: GBL vs. listed assets, Porsche SE...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Samsung SDI (006400): No Catalyst in Sight

Samsung SDI is the de facto beneficiary of the EU subsidies for EV but it has taken a toll recently thus probably makes sense to stay away until...

Henry Soediarko

Discounts to NAV for covered holdcos mainly tightened in January. What seems interesting: Interesting trades: GBL vs. listed assets, Porsche SE...