European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during September. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 49.2% (vs. 46.6%); GBL, 35.3% (vs. 36.2%); Heineken Holding, 14.5% (vs. 17.9%); </li>
<li>Industrivärden C, 7.4% (vs. 7.8%); Investor B, 15.4% (vs.  16.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 41.1% (vs. 41.5%). The spread of Rio DLC tightened to 15.8% (vs. 17.8%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting: holding trades, Investor B vs. listed assets, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC: long RIO LN/short RIO AU.</li>
</ul>


The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during September. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 49.2% (vs. 46.6%); GBL, 35.3% (vs. 36.2%); Heineken Holding, 14.5% (vs. 17.9%); 
Industrivärden C, 7.4% (vs. 7.8%); Investor B, 15.4% (vs.  16.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 41.1% (vs. 41.5%). The spread of Rio DLC tightened to 15.8% (vs. 17.8%).
What seems interesting: holding trades, Investor B vs. listed assets, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC: long RIO LN/short RIO AU.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September’23 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-August, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have tightened, 9 widened).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Carlsberg, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, <strong>Volkswagen</strong> (probably the most interesting situation), Grifols, Atlas Copco.</li>
<li>Possible trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, Schindler, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-August, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have tightened, 9 widened).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Carlsberg, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (probably the most interesting situation), Grifols, Atlas Copco.
Possible trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, Schindler, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September‘23 Report

<ul>
<li>The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have not shown a clear pattern during August, some widened while others tightened. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 46.6% (vs. 47.5%); GBL, 36.2% (vs. 39.1%); </li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 17.9% (vs.16.4%);  Industrivärden C, 7.8% (vs. 6.6%); Investor B, 16.6% (vs. 15%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 41.5% (vs. 43.8%). The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 17.8% (vs. 19%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting: holding trades, Investor B vs. listed assets, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC, long RIO LN/short RIO AU.</li>
</ul>


The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have not shown a clear pattern during August, some widened while others tightened. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 46.6% (vs. 47.5%); GBL, 36.2% (vs. 39.1%); 
Heineken Holding, 17.9% (vs.16.4%);  Industrivärden C, 7.8% (vs. 6.6%); Investor B, 16.6% (vs. 15%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 41.5% (vs. 43.8%). The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 17.8% (vs. 19%).
What seems interesting: holding trades, Investor B vs. listed assets, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC, long RIO LN/short RIO AU.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: August’23 Report

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.</li>
<li>The index changes will be confirmed after the close on 1st September 2023.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a final look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review.</li>
</ul>


The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.
The index changes will be confirmed after the close on 1st September 2023.
In this insight, we take a final look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review.


Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: US$1.3bn Flow for Ferrari Likely; Announcement Soon

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>My updated SOTP shows that the shares of Porsche SE are trading at a still massive 44.9% discount to NAV. The discount has come down from 50.8% on 28 February.</li>
<li>The shares of Porsche SE suffer from a double discount, the holding structure (with a new layer since the listing of Porsche AG) plus a non-voting discount.</li>
<li>My SOTP valuation indicates that the shares are significantly undervalued, but it is challenging to pinpoint a short-term catalyst that could realise this upside potential.</li>
</ul>


My updated SOTP shows that the shares of Porsche SE are trading at a still massive 44.9% discount to NAV. The discount has come down from 50.8% on 28 February.
The shares of Porsche SE suffer from a double discount, the holding structure (with a new layer since the listing of Porsche AG) plus a non-voting discount.
My SOTP valuation indicates that the shares are significantly undervalued, but it is challenging to pinpoint a short-term catalyst that could realise this upside potential.


Porsche Automobile Holding: H1 SOTP and Discount to NAV

Germany

Volkswagen AG manufactures and sells vehicles. The Company offers economy and luxury automobiles, sports cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. Volkswagen serves customers worldwide.

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Volkswagen (VOW GR)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September’23 Report

The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during September. What seems interesting: holding trades, Investor B vs. listed...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September‘23 Report

Since mid-August, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: August’23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during August. Interesting situations are Investor AB vs. assets, Porsche SE/vs....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: US$1.3bn Flow for Ferrari Likely; Announcement Soon

I expect Ferrari NV to be added to the ES50 index and Vonovia to be deleted from the ES50 index in September 2023.There could be 13+ days of volume...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Porsche Automobile Holding: H1 SOTP and Discount to NAV

My updated SOTP shows that the shares of Porsche SE are trading at a still massive 44.9% discount to NAV. The discount has come down from 50.8% on...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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