European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have all tightened during November. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.1% (vs. 47.8%); GBL, 34.9% (vs. 35.5%); Heineken Holding, 14.5% (vs. 14.9%);</li>
<li>Industrivärden C, 4.9% (vs. 6%); Investor B, 14.6% (vs. 16.5%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 39.9% (vs. 40.9%). The spread of Rio DLC tightened to 17.2% (vs. 21%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting: holding trades, Heineken Holding vs. Heineken, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC: long RIO LN/short RIO AU.</li>
</ul>


The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have all tightened during November. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.1% (vs. 47.8%); GBL, 34.9% (vs. 35.5%); Heineken Holding, 14.5% (vs. 14.9%);
Industrivärden C, 4.9% (vs. 6%); Investor B, 14.6% (vs. 16.5%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 39.9% (vs. 40.9%). The spread of Rio DLC tightened to 17.2% (vs. 21%).
What seems interesting: holding trades, Heineken Holding vs. Heineken, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC: long RIO LN/short RIO AU.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November’23 Report

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>My updated SOTP shows that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/porsche-automobil-holding-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21691:1" rel="noopener">Porsche Automobil Holding (PAH3 GR)</a> is trading at a still massive 41.2% discount/NAV, implying that Porsche SE is liable for c. €6.5 billion legal claims, maybe too harsh.</li>
<li>Recent rulings have been favourable. The discount is partly due to capital allocation leaning towards debt servicing. Porsche SE is trading at 2024e 2.6x Fwd P/E and 7.3% dividend yield.</li>
<li>Porsche SE presents an attractive opportunity to gain exposure to Volkswagen and Porsche AG through a discounted and levered investment. Discount to NAV should systematically decrease.</li>
</ul>


My updated SOTP shows that Porsche Automobil Holding (PAH3 GR) is trading at a still massive 41.2% discount/NAV, implying that Porsche SE is liable for c. €6.5 billion legal claims, maybe too harsh.
Recent rulings have been favourable. The discount is partly due to capital allocation leaning towards debt servicing. Porsche SE is trading at 2024e 2.6x Fwd P/E and 7.3% dividend yield.
Porsche SE presents an attractive opportunity to gain exposure to Volkswagen and Porsche AG through a discounted and levered investment. Discount to NAV should systematically decrease.


Porsche Automobile Holding: Q3 and Discount

<ul>
<li>Since mid-October, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have tightened, 10 widened, 1 at same level).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation), Grifols, Atlas Copco.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-October, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have tightened, 10 widened, 1 at same level).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation), Grifols, Atlas Copco.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November‘23 Report

<ul>
<li>The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos haven't shown a clear trend during October. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.8% (vs. 49.2%); GBL, 35.5% (vs. 35.3%); Heineken Holding, 14.9% (vs. 14.5%); </li>
<li>Industrivärden C, 6% (vs. 7.4%); Investor B, 16.5% (vs. 15.4%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 40.9% (vs. 41.1%). The spread of Rio DLC widened to 21% (vs. 15.8%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting: holding trades, Investor B vs. listed assets, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC: long RIO LN/short RIO AU.</li>
</ul>


The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos haven't shown a clear trend during October. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.8% (vs. 49.2%); GBL, 35.5% (vs. 35.3%); Heineken Holding, 14.9% (vs. 14.5%); 
Industrivärden C, 6% (vs. 7.4%); Investor B, 16.5% (vs. 15.4%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 40.9% (vs. 41.1%). The spread of Rio DLC widened to 21% (vs. 15.8%).
What seems interesting: holding trades, Investor B vs. listed assets, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC: long RIO LN/short RIO AU.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: October’23 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-September, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (12 have tightened, 7 widened).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, <strong>Volkswagen</strong> (still the most interesting situation), Grifols, Atlas Copco.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-September, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (12 have tightened, 7 widened).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation), Grifols, Atlas Copco.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October‘23 Report

Germany

Volkswagen AG manufactures and sells vehicles. The Company offers economy and luxury automobiles, sports cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. Volkswagen serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Volkswagen (Pref) (VOW3 GR)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November’23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos tightened in November. Interesting trades, in my view, include Heineken Holding vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Porsche Automobile Holding: Q3 and Discount

Porsche SE trades at 41.2% discount/NAV, possibly due to €6.5 billion legal claims. Recent rulings have been favorable, making it an attractive...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November‘23 Report

Since mid-October, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have tightened, 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: October’23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos in October showed no clear trend. Interesting aspects include holding trades, Investor B vs. listed assets,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October‘23 Report

Since mid-September, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary (voting) and preferred (non-voting) shares...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November’23 Report

​Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos tightened in November. Interesting trades, in my view, include Heineken Holding vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Porsche Automobile Holding: Q3 and Discount

​Porsche SE trades at 41.2% discount/NAV, possibly due to €6.5 billion legal claims. Recent rulings have been favorable, making it an attractive...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November‘23 Report

Since mid-October, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have tightened, 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: October’23 Report

​Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos in October showed no clear trend. Interesting aspects include holding trades, Investor B vs. listed assets,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October‘23 Report

Since mid-September, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary (voting) and preferred (non-voting) shares...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos tightened in November. Interesting trades, in my view, include Heineken Holding vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs....

Porsche SE trades at 41.2% discount/NAV, possibly due to €6.5 billion legal claims. Recent rulings have been favorable, making it an attractive...

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos in October showed no clear trend. Interesting aspects include holding trades, Investor B vs. listed assets,...