EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Against market expectations the British have voted to exit the European Union, a process that could take a few years. The first order impact is being felt in the Eurozone, but the shockwaves could lead to one more leg down in Emerging Markets and potentially the US this year.

Against market expectations the British have voted to exit the European Union, a process that could take a few years. The first order impact is being felt in the Eurozone, but the shockwaves could lead to one more leg down in Emerging Markets and potentially the US this year.

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Equity Bottom-Up

Sky Network Television / Equity Bottom-Up

We recommend that Sky shareholders vote in favour of the proposed Vodafone New Zealand acquisition. We see the combined entity as having a more strategically certain future than Sky as a stand-alone unit. The content delivery landscape is evolving rapidly in the digital era, as are consumer preferences. Against this backdrop, a manoeuvre that transforms Sky from a single-play entity (pay television) to one that also offers mobile telephony and broadband has clear merit.If shareholders reject the proposal, Sky shares could drop below the preannouncement price of around NZD 4.25 per share. This is because investors may harbour doubts as to whether the current management team is capable of steering Sky as a stand-alone entity, having revealed that combining with Vodafone is the best way to compete in the increasingly competitive Kiwi entertainment space.Analysts: Brian Han &amp; Benjamin Chan

We recommend that Sky shareholders vote in favour of the proposed Vodafone New Zealand acquisition. We see the combined entity as having a more strategically certain future than Sky as a stand-alone unit. The content delivery landscape is evolving rapidly in the digital era, as are consumer preferences. Against this backdrop, a manoeuvre that transforms Sky from a single-play entity (pay television) to one that also offers mobile telephony and broadband has clear merit.If shareholders reject the proposal, Sky shares could drop below the preannouncement price of around NZD 4.25 per share. This is because investors may harbour doubts as to whether the current management team is capable of steering Sky as a stand-alone entity, having revealed that combining with Vodafone is the best way to compete in the increasingly competitive Kiwi entertainment space.Analysts: Brian Han &amp; Benjamin Chan

Sky Network Television Bets Future as a Telecom-Media Amalgam

Differentiated global TMT & Internet Research

New Street Research Insights

New Street Research

Research is provided by our team of experienced analysts. Our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focused on fundamentals and valuation of telecoms and internet names globally. New Street is headquartered in London with offices in New York, Singapore and Australia. 

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
US Healthcare
Japanese Healthcare

We also provide debt research on:
Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

In their report <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sky-network-television-rings-up-vodafone-in-a-bid-to-reinvent-itself-as-a-convergent-telecom-player" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:4154">Sky Network Television Rings Up Vodafone in a Bid to Reinvent Itself as a Convergent Telecom Player</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/273" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:273">Morningstar</a> looked at the details of the deal and implications for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7874" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7874">Sky Network Television</a> (SKY NZ).  The deal, as proposed and still subject to approval by Sky shareholders will result in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22204" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22204">Vodafone PLC </a>holding a 51% stake in the merged entity. This despite the New Zealand market being identified as non-core by the group.We look briefly below at the implications for Vodafone PLC…

In their report Sky Network Television Rings Up Vodafone in a Bid to Reinvent Itself as a Convergent Telecom Player, Morningstar looked at the details of the deal and implications for Sky Network Television (SKY NZ).  The deal, as proposed and still subject to approval by Sky shareholders will result in Vodafone PLC holding a 51% stake in the merged entity. This despite the New Zealand market being identified as non-core by the group.We look briefly below at the implications for Vodafone PLC…

Vodafone's NZ Tie-Up with SKY May Indicate a Willingness to Deal in Australia as Well.

Sky Network Television’s proposed acquisition of Vodafone New Zealand is an admission that structural pressures on its pay-TV model are too great for the firm to handle solo. It has instead opted to go down the convergence path and acquire a telecom entity: one that is the leading mobile operator but in a country that Vodafone’s parent appears to view as a mature, marginal market.In our previous note, faced with structural impact from streaming video on demand competitors, we wrote that it was time for Sky to bite the strategic bullet. We did not expect the company to bite such an enormous bullet by going after the second-largest telecom company in New Zealand for NZD 3.4 billion. The acquisition, if successful, will secure Sky’s future as a company, transforming it from a one-trick (pay television) entity to a three-trick (mobile, broadband, pay television) integrated force in the New Zealand market.Analysts: Brian Han &amp; Benjamin Chan

Sky Network Television’s proposed acquisition of Vodafone New Zealand is an admission that structural pressures on its pay-TV model are too great for the firm to handle solo. It has instead opted to go down the convergence path and acquire a telecom entity: one that is the leading mobile operator but in a country that Vodafone’s parent appears to view as a mature, marginal market.In our previous note, faced with structural impact from streaming video on demand competitors, we wrote that it was time for Sky to bite the strategic bullet. We did not expect the company to bite such an enormous bullet by going after the second-largest telecom company in New Zealand for NZD 3.4 billion. The acquisition, if successful, will secure Sky’s future as a company, transforming it from a one-trick (pay television) entity to a three-trick (mobile, broadband, pay television) integrated force in the New Zealand market.Analysts: Brian Han &amp; Benjamin Chan

Sky Network Television Rings Up Vodafone in a Bid to Reinvent Itself as a Convergent Telecom Player

We recently met telecom operators in India and came away with a relatively optimistic outlook. Our top pick remains <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/953" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:953">Bharti Airtel </a>(Bharti) but we are positive on the overall industry as well, notwithstanding the looming threat of Reliance Jio's entry. Competition appears to be relatively benign with the major change recently being a refocusing of strategy from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15678" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15678">Idea Cellular</a> (IDEA) from price and volume to more of a profit focus. Bharti appears to be the key beneficiary of the India market repair…

We recently met telecom operators in India and came away with a relatively optimistic outlook. Our top pick remains Bharti Airtel (Bharti) but we are positive on the overall industry as well, notwithstanding the looming threat of Reliance Jio's entry. Competition appears to be relatively benign with the major change recently being a refocusing of strategy from Idea Cellular (IDEA) from price and volume to more of a profit focus. Bharti appears to be the key beneficiary of the India market repair…

Indian Telcos: Optimistic Outlook as IDEA Reduces Price Competition

United Kingdom

Vodafone Group PLC is a mobile telecommunications company providing a range of services, including voice and data communications.  The Company operates in Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, the United States, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East through its subsidiaries, associates, and investments.

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Vodafone (VOD LN)

Will Brexit Break EM's Back?

Against market expectations the British have voted to exit the European Union, a process that could take a few years. The first order impact is...

Emad Mostaque

Sky Network Television Bets Future as a Telecom-Media Amalgam

We recommend that Sky shareholders vote in favour of the proposed Vodafone New Zealand acquisition. We see the combined entity as having a more...

Morningstar, Inc.

Vodafone's NZ Tie-Up with SKY May Indicate a Willingness to Deal in Australia as Well.

In their report Sky Network Television Rings Up Vodafone in a Bid to Reinvent Itself as a Convergent Telecom Player, Morningstar looked at the...

New Street Research

Sky Network Television Rings Up Vodafone in a Bid to Reinvent Itself as a Convergent Telecom Player

Sky Network Television’s proposed acquisition of Vodafone New Zealand is an admission that structural pressures on its pay-TV model are too great...

Morningstar, Inc.

Indian Telcos: Optimistic Outlook as IDEA Reduces Price Competition

We recently met telecom operators in India and came away with a relatively optimistic outlook. Our top pick remains Bharti Airtel (Bharti) but we...

New Street Research

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