New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Sky Network Television / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Sky TV (SKT) is structurally challenged, with a fast declining satellite subscriber base.</li><li>But at 6x FY26 PE and a forward gross dividend yield of ~14%, that is more than reflected in the share price.</li><li>Not all trends are going against SKT. Content costs, in particular for domestic sports rights, have likely passed their peak (certainly in real terms), Sky Box frustrations seem to be abating, and the streaming ambitions of large content providers have at least temporarily been pared back. </li></ul>

Sky TV (SKT) is structurally challenged, with a fast declining satellite subscriber base.But at 6x FY26 PE and a forward gross dividend yield of ~14%, that is more than reflected in the share price.Not all trends are going against SKT. Content costs, in particular for domestic sports rights, have likely passed their peak (certainly in real terms), Sky Box frustrations seem to be abating, and the streaming ambitions of large content providers have at least temporarily been pared back. 

Sky TV - Approaching the Tryline: Up to OUTPERFORM

<ul><li>Sky TV's (SKT) FY24 result was soft, with less-than-expected subscribers across its Satellite and Streaming businesses driving a lower FY25 outlook.</li><li>This result is more understandable when considering SKT battled the combination of both a softening consumer backdrop, and a light content calendar over 2H24.</li><li>With SKT continuing to lose Satellite subscribers at pace, it is becoming more reliant on its ability to grow its Streaming business, and deliver reductions in programming costs to retain current profitability. </li></ul>

Sky TV's (SKT) FY24 result was soft, with less-than-expected subscribers across its Satellite and Streaming businesses driving a lower FY25 outlook.This result is more understandable when considering SKT battled the combination of both a softening consumer backdrop, and a light content calendar over 2H24.With SKT continuing to lose Satellite subscribers at pace, it is becoming more reliant on its ability to grow its Streaming business, and deliver reductions in programming costs to retain current profitability. 

Sky TV - FY24 Result — Outside the Medals

<ul><li>Sky TV (SKT) reported an in-line set of results and guided in-line with our expectations for FY24. But the results mask the distance SKT has covered over the last five years.</li><li>It has achieved the cherished inflection point in subscriber revenues and reported its second year of modest revenue growth.</li><li>Content costs seem to have stabilised (at an admittedly high level) and SKT now expects these to be largely flat from FY24 onwards. </li></ul>

Sky TV (SKT) reported an in-line set of results and guided in-line with our expectations for FY24. But the results mask the distance SKT has covered over the last five years.It has achieved the cherished inflection point in subscriber revenues and reported its second year of modest revenue growth.Content costs seem to have stabilised (at an admittedly high level) and SKT now expects these to be largely flat from FY24 onwards. 

Sky TV - Aiming for a Larger Slice of the Cake

<ul><li>Sky TV (SKT) delivered a respectable result, slightly ahead of our estimates, with the core positive being strong revenue performance</li><li>Focus shifts (back) to programming rights costs; increasing our FY24 cost estimates again</li><li>Can the business model work with perpetually declining satellite subscribers? Spark's exit make it more plausible</li></ul>

Sky TV (SKT) delivered a respectable result, slightly ahead of our estimates, with the core positive being strong revenue performanceFocus shifts (back) to programming rights costs; increasing our FY24 cost estimates againCan the business model work with perpetually declining satellite subscribers? Spark's exit make it more plausible

Sky TV: 1H23 — Controlling the Controllables

<ul><li>SKT has reported an in-line 1H23 result, with EBITDAF of NZ$73.7m, largely in-line with our NZ$72.7m forecast. Reported NPAT was NZ$26.2m, slightly above our NZ$24.6m forecast.</li><li>Full year EBITDA guidance was narrowed, with the upper end of guidance lowered.</li><li>SKT called out an NZ$7m fee to keep Vodafone TV going (netted off against revenue) as a one-off, adding that would make the numbers look better.</li></ul>

SKT has reported an in-line 1H23 result, with EBITDAF of NZ$73.7m, largely in-line with our NZ$72.7m forecast. Reported NPAT was NZ$26.2m, slightly above our NZ$24.6m forecast.Full year EBITDA guidance was narrowed, with the upper end of guidance lowered.SKT called out an NZ$7m fee to keep Vodafone TV going (netted off against revenue) as a one-off, adding that would make the numbers look better.

Sky TV (SKT): 1H23 Result − Initial Impressions

New Zealand

SKY Network Television Limited is a pay-television operator in New Zealand.  The Company broadcasts various pay networks via UHF and Digital satellite platforms and offers a variety of programming including news, sports, movies, digital radio and pay-per-view events.

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Sky Network Television (SKT NZ)

Sky TV - Approaching the Tryline: Up to OUTPERFORM

Sky TV (SKT) is structurally challenged, with a fast declining satellite subscriber base. But at 6x FY26 PE and a forward gross dividend yield of...

Forsyth Barr

Sky TV - FY24 Result — Outside the Medals

Sky TV's (SKT) FY24 result was soft, with less-than-expected subscribers across its Satellite and Streaming businesses driving a lower FY25 outlook.

Forsyth Barr

Sky TV - Aiming for a Larger Slice of the Cake

Sky TV (SKT) reported an in-line set of results and guided in-line with our expectations for FY24. But the results mask the distance SKT has...

Forsyth Barr

Sky TV: 1H23 — Controlling the Controllables

Sky TV (SKT) delivered a respectable result, slightly ahead of our estimates, with the core positive being strong revenue performance; Underlying...

Forsyth Barr

Sky TV (SKT): 1H23 Result − Initial Impressions

SKT has reported an in-line 1H23 result, with EBITDAF of NZ$73.7m, largely in-line with our NZ$72.7m forecast; Reported NPAT was NZ$26.2m, slightly...

Forsyth Barr

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