Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente Ltd (8114 JP)</a> earnings disappoints, buy the dip. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> is buying for the long-term.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mgm-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:472:1" rel="noopener">MGM China Holdings (2282 HK)</a> has gained market share in mass table market, VIP, and total revenue. Yet MGM's FY24E EV/EBITDA is ~40% below its two-year forward average EV/EBITDA pre-Covid.</li>
<li>If you had a J-REIT portfolio, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a> would go in and push something else out or smaller. I think one gets beta-plus, which is usually called alpha.</li>
</ul>


If Descente Ltd (8114 JP) earnings disappoints, buy the dip. Itochu Corp (8001 JP) is buying for the long-term.

MGM China Holdings (2282 HK) has gained market share in mass table market, VIP, and total revenue. Yet MGM's FY24E EV/EBITDA is ~40% below its two-year forward average EV/EBITDA pre-Covid.
If you had a J-REIT portfolio, Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP) would go in and push something else out or smaller. I think one gets beta-plus, which is usually called alpha.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Shinko Electric Industries, MGM China, Decente, Sankei Real Estate,

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the December 2023 rebalance.</li>
<li>This includes a couple of intra-review index changes that could be triggered by the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dechra-pharmaceuticals-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21908:1" rel="noopener">Dechra Pharmaceuticals (DPH LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chr-hansen-holding-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22322:1" rel="noopener">Chr Hansen Holding A/S (CHR DC)</a> takeover situations.</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the December 2023 rebalance.
This includes a couple of intra-review index changes that could be triggered by the Dechra Pharmaceuticals (DPH LN) and Chr Hansen Holding A/S (CHR DC) takeover situations.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec 23: Novartis-Sandoz, Dechra, CHR, and Others

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>Currently, I see two index changes for the MDAX index and two index changes for the SDAX index.</li>
<li>I do not see any changes for the DAX index in December 2023.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.
Currently, I see two index changes for the MDAX index and two index changes for the SDAX index.
I do not see any changes for the DAX index in December 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Dec 23: Two Changes for MDAX and Two Changes for SDAX

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Vitesco Technologies Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schaeffler-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21712:1" rel="noopener">Schaeffler (SHA GR)</a> offers €91.00/share for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vitesco-technologies-group-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36684:1" rel="noopener">Vitesco Technologies Group (VTSC GR)</a>, in cash, 20% premium to 3-month VWAP, 3.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA. There is no minimum acceptance rate.</li>
<li>Later Schaeffler will unify its share classes (current voting ratio 3.01) to use them as currency for Vitesco shareholders not accepting the cash offer (essentially the parent company of Schaeffler).</li>
<li>Vitesco shareholders are being generously rewarded (my fair value estimate is #€74/share), I believe most will tender. Spread is 1.04%/3.70% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 31 January). I'd buy below €90/share.</li>
</ul>



Schaeffler (SHA GR) offers €91.00/share for Vitesco Technologies Group (VTSC GR), in cash, 20% premium to 3-month VWAP, 3.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA. There is no minimum acceptance rate.
Later Schaeffler will unify its share classes (current voting ratio 3.01) to use them as currency for Vitesco shareholders not accepting the cash offer (essentially the parent company of Schaeffler).
Vitesco shareholders are being generously rewarded (my fair value estimate is #€74/share), I believe most will tender. Spread is 1.04%/3.70% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 31 January). I'd buy below €90/share.


Schaeffler/Vitesco: A Three-Step Merger Process

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices in the September 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>As things stand, I do not see any changes for the DAX index as-is, but there are couple of names requiring only small price gains to trigger Fast Entry changes.</li>
<li>I see one change between MDAX and SDAX and one separate ADD/DEL for the SDAX index in the September 2023 rebalance.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices in the September 2023 Rebalance.
As things stand, I do not see any changes for the DAX index as-is, but there are couple of names requiring only small price gains to trigger Fast Entry changes.
I see one change between MDAX and SDAX and one separate ADD/DEL for the SDAX index in the September 2023 rebalance.


Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Sep 23: SHORT Sartorius LONG Merck Trade STILL Interesting

Germany

Vitesco Technologies Group Aktiengesellschaft operates as a supplier of drive technologies and electrification solutions for sustainable mobility. The Company product range includes electrification solutions such as electrified drivetrain systems, battery management and thermal management solutions, as well as electronic control units, sensors and actuators.

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Vitesco Technologies Group (VTSC GR)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shinko Electric Industries, MGM China, Decente, Sankei Real Estate,

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec 23: Novartis-Sandoz, Dechra, CHR, and Others

I currently see six regular ADDs/DELs for the SE600 index in December 2023. Apart from that the Dechra and CHR deals could trigger two more intra...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Dec 23: Two Changes for MDAX and Two Changes for SDAX

The expected MDAX changes could have multiple days to trade while the flow expectations for the expected SDAX changes are fairly insignificant.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Schaeffler/Vitesco: A Three-Step Merger Process

Schaeffler plants to take over Vitesco in three acts in a consolidation move. Schaeffler offers a generous premium, which should help conclude...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Sep 23: SHORT Sartorius LONG Merck Trade STILL Interesting

The SHORT Sartorius LONG Merck Trade still seems interesting as the SRT/MRK price ratio is yet to fall to reflect the recent drop in FWD EPS ratios...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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