Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>I remain bullish on the stock and reiterate a $37 PT. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/confluent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33443:1" rel="noopener">Confluent (CFLT US)</a> delivered upside to total revenue, gross margin, and non-GAAP operating margin estimates.</li>
<li>The company raised guidance for CY23 total revenue and profitability. There were plenty of positives, including cloud momentum and customer demand.</li>
<li>The US-based data streaming pioneer appears well positioned to outperform my estimates, and I see a path to profitability (non-GAAP) in CY24 at the earliest.</li>
</ul>


I remain bullish on the stock and reiterate a $37 PT. Confluent (CFLT US) delivered upside to total revenue, gross margin, and non-GAAP operating margin estimates.
The company raised guidance for CY23 total revenue and profitability. There were plenty of positives, including cloud momentum and customer demand.
The US-based data streaming pioneer appears well positioned to outperform my estimates, and I see a path to profitability (non-GAAP) in CY24 at the earliest.


Confluent. 2Q Wrap: Solid Results and Leadership Position In a $60B+ TAM

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Visa managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.</li><li>The quarterly payments volume in the U.S. increased mostly due to a slower inflation rate.</li><li>With the introduction of Visa Business Credit for their 28 million client base, PagSeguro, a significant Brazilian fintech client, will expand in the commercial area.</li></ul>

Visa managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.The quarterly payments volume in the U.S. increased mostly due to a slower inflation rate.With the introduction of Visa Business Credit for their 28 million client base, PagSeguro, a significant Brazilian fintech client, will expand in the commercial area.

Visa Inc.: The Pismo Acquisition & Other Major Developments

Value Investing

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

<ul>
<li>Visa continues to deliver as the company fully capitalizes on recent macroeconomic and industry-wide tailwinds.</li>
<li>The expectations for the upcoming quarter are high and the second half of the fiscal year is also likely to be more challenging.</li>
<li>This creates certain risks for the share price that are not necessarily priced in at the moment.</li>
</ul>


Visa continues to deliver as the company fully capitalizes on recent macroeconomic and industry-wide tailwinds.
The expectations for the upcoming quarter are high and the second half of the fiscal year is also likely to be more challenging.
This creates certain risks for the share price that are not necessarily priced in at the moment.


Visa Earnings: Business Momentum Is Likely To Be Sustained, But Clouds Are Gathering

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In 1H23 and in the early part of 3Q23, our longs – Visa, Wise and PagSeguro – delivered positive returns; our shorts, DLocal and Kakao Pay, were also modestly successful</li>
<li>Ahead of results to June 2023, we retain card network megacap Visa as a core holding, as well as PagSeguro; we add PayPal and drop Wise from the buy list</li>
<li>We keep our negative view on DLocal and add Affirm, given high take-rates and  premium valuations; we stick with our negative on Kakao Pay due to its lofty multiples</li>
</ul>


In 1H23 and in the early part of 3Q23, our longs – Visa, Wise and PagSeguro – delivered positive returns; our shorts, DLocal and Kakao Pay, were also modestly successful
Ahead of results to June 2023, we retain card network megacap Visa as a core holding, as well as PagSeguro; we add PayPal and drop Wise from the buy list
We keep our negative view on DLocal and add Affirm, given high take-rates and  premium valuations; we stick with our negative on Kakao Pay due to its lofty multiples


Payment Companies – 1H 2023 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2H 2023

<ul>
<li>Block's share price has remained relatively flat over the past year, but that's hardly good news.</li>
<li>The highly supportive outside environment was not able to propel the share price anywhere near its previous highs.</li>
<li>When adjusting for risks, Block remains as one of the worst performers within its peer group, according to analysts.</li>
</ul>


Block's share price has remained relatively flat over the past year, but that's hardly good news.
The highly supportive outside environment was not able to propel the share price anywhere near its previous highs.
When adjusting for risks, Block remains as one of the worst performers within its peer group, according to analysts.


Block: When A Flat Share Price Is A Cause Of Concern

United States

Visa Inc. operates a retail electronic payments network and manages global financial services.  The Company also offers global commerce through the transfer of value and information among financial institutions, merchants, consumers, businesses and government entities.

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Visa (V US)

Confluent. 2Q Wrap: Solid Results and Leadership Position In a $60B+ TAM

Confluent reported solid results and achieved sustained high growth despite a choppy macro environment and smaller average deal sizes. The company...

Andrei Zakharov

Visa Inc.: The Pismo Acquisition & Other Major Developments

Visa managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings. The quarterly payments volume in the U.S. increased mostly...

Baptista Research

Visa Earnings: Business Momentum Is Likely To Be Sustained, But Clouds Are Gathering

Visa continues to deliver as the company fully capitalizes on recent macroeconomic and industry-wide tailwinds. The expectations for the upcoming...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Payment Companies – 1H 2023 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2H 2023

Our 2H 2023 payments company longs are card network megacap Visa, value play PagSeguro and PayPal with our short calls being DLocal, Kakao Pay and...

Victor Galliano

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Confluent. 2Q Wrap: Solid Results and Leadership Position In a $60B+ TAM

Confluent reported solid results and achieved sustained high growth despite a choppy macro environment and smaller average deal sizes. The company...

Andrei Zakharov

Visa Inc.: The Pismo Acquisition & Other Major Developments

Visa managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings. The quarterly payments volume in the U.S. increased mostly...

Baptista Research

Visa Earnings: Business Momentum Is Likely To Be Sustained, But Clouds Are Gathering

Visa continues to deliver as the company fully capitalizes on recent macroeconomic and industry-wide tailwinds. The expectations for the upcoming...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Payment Companies – 1H 2023 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2H 2023

Our 2H 2023 payments company longs are card network megacap Visa, value play PagSeguro and PayPal with our short calls being DLocal, Kakao Pay and...

Victor Galliano

Block: When A Flat Share Price Is A Cause Of Concern

The highly supportive outside environment was not able to propel the share price anywhere near its previous highs. When adjusting for risks, Block...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA