Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p>On 27th May 2021, U.S. Senators Marco Rubio and Bob Casey introduced the <em>No IPOs for Unaccountable Actors Act</em>, which aims to prohibit IPO on U.S. exchanges for Chinese companies. </p>
<p>The act is a follow up on the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act which was signed by Trump on 18th Dec 2020 and which seeks to stop China ADRs from being traded on the US exchanges.</p>
</div><div><p>We have looked at the ADRs in the past, in our previous notes:</p></div><div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-deep-dive-yin-and-yang" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang,</a> published in Feb 2020,  we looked at the background and rules around undertaking a secondary listing in Hong Kong and then came up with a short-list of companies that might undertake a secondary listing. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-covid-19-has-increased-the-tension-but-narrowed-the-short-list" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List</a> published in May 2020, we looked at the recent developments and provided an revised short-list</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-holding-foreign-companies-accountable-act-i-m-coming-home" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home</a>, published in May 2020, we spoke about the implication of the act which had made its way through the senate.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-pipeline-looks-rich-have-three-years-to-move" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing - Pipeline Looks Rich, Have Three Years to Move</a>, published in Feb 2021 we looked at the ADR pipeline and spoke about the updates from the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act becoming law and the updates at Hong Kong end as well. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-sec-notice-instead-of-three-probably-have-four-years-till-2025-correction-overdone" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs - SEC Notice - Instead of Three, Probably Have Four Years till 2025 - Correction Overdone, </a> we spoke about the new SEC notice and its implications. </li>
</ul>
<p>In this note, we'll talk about the new act and its possible timelines and implications.</p>
</div>


On 27th May 2021, U.S. Senators Marco Rubio and Bob Casey introduced the No IPOs for Unaccountable Actors Act, which aims to prohibit IPO on U.S. exchanges for Chinese companies. 
The act is a follow up on the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act which was signed by Trump on 18th Dec 2020 and which seeks to stop China ADRs from being traded on the US exchanges.
We have looked at the ADRs in the past, in our previous notes:


China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang, published in Feb 2020,  we looked at the background and rules around undertaking a secondary listing in Hong Kong and then came up with a short-list of companies that might undertake a secondary listing. 

In China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List published in May 2020, we looked at the recent developments and provided an revised short-list
In China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home, published in May 2020, we spoke about the implication of the act which had made its way through the senate.
In China ADRs Secondary Listing - Pipeline Looks Rich, Have Three Years to Move, published in Feb 2021 we looked at the ADR pipeline and spoke about the updates from the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act becoming law and the updates at Hong Kong end as well. 
In China ADRs - SEC Notice - Instead of Three, Probably Have Four Years till 2025 - Correction Overdone,  we spoke about the new SEC notice and its implications. 

In this note, we'll talk about the new act and its possible timelines and implications.


China ADRs - A New Act Aims to Put an End to China ADR IPOs

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aihuishou" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33426:1" rel="noopener">Aihuishou (RERE US)</a> (AHS), China’s largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform, aims to raise up to US$1bn via a US listing. It is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>, Morningside and Tiger Global.</p></div><div>
<p>A total of 26.1m consumer products, worth RMB22.8bn, were transacted by AHS over twelve months ending Mar 2021. It had over 755 offline stores across 172 cities. According to CIC, it had a 6.6% market share in terms of GMV for pre-owned electronics and 8.7% market share in terms of number of pre-owned devices transacted in 2020. As per CIC, its GMV for electronics and number of devices transacted in 2020 were both greater than the next five largest platforms combined, as per CIC. </p>
<p>We covered some aspects of the deal in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aihuishou-pre-ipo-mostly-positive-pre-owned-but-well-loved" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AiHuiShou Pre-IPO - Mostly Positive - Pre-Owned but Well Loved</a>. </p>
<p>In this note, we will talk about valuations.</p>
</div>

Aihuishou (RERE US) (AHS), China’s largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform, aims to raise up to US$1bn via a US listing. It is backed by JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US), Morningside and Tiger Global.
A total of 26.1m consumer products, worth RMB22.8bn, were transacted by AHS over twelve months ending Mar 2021. It had over 755 offline stores across 172 cities. According to CIC, it had a 6.6% market share in terms of GMV for pre-owned electronics and 8.7% market share in terms of number of pre-owned devices transacted in 2020. As per CIC, its GMV for electronics and number of devices transacted in 2020 were both greater than the next five largest platforms combined, as per CIC. 
We covered some aspects of the deal in our earlier note, AiHuiShou Pre-IPO - Mostly Positive - Pre-Owned but Well Loved. 
In this note, we will talk about valuations.


AiHuiShou Pre-IPO - First Stab at Valuation

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aihuishou" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33426:1" rel="noopener">Aihuishou (RERE US)</a> (AHS), China’s largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform, aims to raise up to US$1bn via a US listing. It is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>, Morningside and Tiger Global.</p><p>A total of 26.1m consumer products, worth RMB22.8bn, were transacted by AHS over twelve months ending Mar 2021. It had over 755 offline stores across 172 cities. According to CIC, it had a 6.6% market share in terms of GMV for pre-owned electronics and 8.7% market share in terms of number of pre-owned devices transacted in 2020. As per CIC, its GMV for electronics and number of devices transacted in 2020 were both greater than the next five largest platforms combined, as per CIC. </p>

Aihuishou (RERE US) (AHS), China’s largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform, aims to raise up to US$1bn via a US listing. It is backed by JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US), Morningside and Tiger Global.A total of 26.1m consumer products, worth RMB22.8bn, were transacted by AHS over twelve months ending Mar 2021. It had over 755 offline stores across 172 cities. According to CIC, it had a 6.6% market share in terms of GMV for pre-owned electronics and 8.7% market share in terms of number of pre-owned devices transacted in 2020. As per CIC, its GMV for electronics and number of devices transacted in 2020 were both greater than the next five largest platforms combined, as per CIC. 

AiHuiShou Pre-IPO - Mostly Positive - Pre-Owned but Well Loved

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a>’s Q1 was not all that bad. Revenue was up 239% YoY to RMB 22.2bn compared to the consensus estimate of RMB 20.6bn. Non-GAAP operating income reached RMB -3.2bn (an OPM of -14.3% compared to OPMs of -54.9%, -5.9%, -2.4% and -4.2% in 1Q20, 2Q20, 3Q20 and 4Q20 respectively) in 1Q21 compared to the consensus estimate of RMB -3.6bn. Yet investors were cautious as shares plunged a 9.9% from the day’s open price of US$ 137.2, to close the day at US$ 123.6 per share. This wasn’t surprising as most tech companies had weak share price performance despite stellar Q1 earnings.</p>

Pinduoduo (PDD US)’s Q1 was not all that bad. Revenue was up 239% YoY to RMB 22.2bn compared to the consensus estimate of RMB 20.6bn. Non-GAAP operating income reached RMB -3.2bn (an OPM of -14.3% compared to OPMs of -54.9%, -5.9%, -2.4% and -4.2% in 1Q20, 2Q20, 3Q20 and 4Q20 respectively) in 1Q21 compared to the consensus estimate of RMB -3.6bn. Yet investors were cautious as shares plunged a 9.9% from the day’s open price of US$ 137.2, to close the day at US$ 123.6 per share. This wasn’t surprising as most tech companies had weak share price performance despite stellar Q1 earnings.

Global TMT analyst with Asia ex-Japan focus.

Mitchell Kim

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)'s</a> share price fell 5.5% in the US market after the company reported a 239% revenue growth YoY.   I believe there are three reasons why the market punished the stock (indeed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK), and </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vipshop-holdings-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1088:1" rel="noopener">Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener"> fell too, but </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener"> and </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>):</p><ul>
<li>The company decided against disclosing the TTM GMV.  Why? </li>
<li>The explosive revenue growth was partly due to the direct sales revenue which was recorded in only the last two quarters and the grocery delivery business, which started in August 2020.</li>
<li>The gross profit margin dropped sequentially while the operating loss ratio expanded. As I have noted in my last note and Webinar, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pin-duo-duo-pdd-us-four-charts-to-make-you-want-to-run" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49333" rel="noopener">Pin Duo Duo (PDD US): Four Charts To Make You Want to Run</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/smartkarma-webinar-pinduoduo-pdd-us-know-when-to-fold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49910" rel="noopener">Smartkarma Webinar | Pinduoduo (PDD US): Know When to Fold</a> when revenue growth starts to slow the path to profit much be shown clearly.  </li>
</ul><p>I favor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> and then <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> as they offer much more attractive value and less exposed to the domestic counterfeit claims risk and the potential fine for aggressive use of subsidies to acquire customers.  </p>

Pinduoduo (PDD US)'s share price fell 5.5% in the US market after the company reported a 239% revenue growth YoY.   I believe there are three reasons why the market punished the stock (indeed Meituan (3690 HK), Tencent (700 HK), and Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US) fell too, but Alibaba Group (BABA US) and JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)):
The company decided against disclosing the TTM GMV.  Why? 
The explosive revenue growth was partly due to the direct sales revenue which was recorded in only the last two quarters and the grocery delivery business, which started in August 2020.
The gross profit margin dropped sequentially while the operating loss ratio expanded. As I have noted in my last note and Webinar, Pin Duo Duo (PDD US): Four Charts To Make You Want to Run and Smartkarma Webinar | Pinduoduo (PDD US): Know When to Fold when revenue growth starts to slow the path to profit much be shown clearly.  
I favor Alibaba Group (BABA US) and then JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) as they offer much more attractive value and less exposed to the domestic counterfeit claims risk and the potential fine for aggressive use of subsidies to acquire customers.  

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Three Reasons Why PDD Fell 5.5% After a 239% Growth

China

Vipshop Holdings Ltd. retails branded products at discount over the Internet. The Company retails through flash sales, in which limited quantities of an item are sold at deep discount for a specified period of time.

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Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)

China ADRs - A New Act Aims to Put an End to China ADR IPOs

On 27th May 2021, U.S. Senators Marco Rubio and Bob Casey introduced the No IPOs for Unaccountable Actors Act, which aims to prohibit IPO on U.S....

Sumeet Singh

AiHuiShou Pre-IPO - First Stab at Valuation

Aihuishou (RERE US), China’s largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform, aims to raise up to US$1bn via a US...

Sumeet Singh

AiHuiShou Pre-IPO - Mostly Positive - Pre-Owned but Well Loved

Aihuishou(RERE US), China’s largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform, aims to raise upto US$1bn via a US listing....

Sumeet Singh

Pinduoduo: Downside Not Fully Priced In

Downward trajectory still seems rather steep for Pinduoduo while other EC names like Alibaba, Vipshop & JD.com offers more downside protection....

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Three Reasons Why PDD Fell 5.5% After a 239% Growth

Pinduoduo reported 239% revenue growth in 1Q21, but the stock fell 5.5%. I offer three reasons why the stock fell: GMV, revenue, and loss margins.

Mitchell Kim

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