Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

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<p>Our valuation analysis suggests an implied market cap of $4.1 billion, representing an implied price of $15.8 per share for Aihuishou. This would represent an upside of 5% from the high end of the IPO price of $15 per share. Given the lack of upside, we would avoid this IPO deal. We based our valution based on 2.0x EV/S multiple (2022E), which is based on the average EV/S multiple of its peers in 2022. If the IPO is priced at the low end of the IPO price range, then it could be more attractive, but we are not too convinced of the investment merits of this company.</p>
<p>Among the many risks, we are especially concerned about the extreme price competition for electronic goods (including smartphones) and we do not believe that if the company could generate significant profits in this sector if it focuses just on the consumer electronics sector. In addition, we are not so sure about the company's capability in expanding profitably into other non-consumer electronics related areas going forward. </p>
</div><p>Established in 2011 as an online platform buying and selling second-hand phones and other consumer electronics, Aihuishou focuses on the electronics.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aihuishou" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33426:1" rel="noopener">Aihuishou (RERE US)</a> plans to raise $227 million in the upcoming IPO by offering 16.2 million ADS at a price range of $13 to $15 per share. Insiders plan to buy $100 million worth of ADS shares in this IPO. Aihuishou would have a market cap of $3.6 billion at the mid-point of the IPO price range. </p>


Our valuation analysis suggests an implied market cap of $4.1 billion, representing an implied price of $15.8 per share for Aihuishou. This would represent an upside of 5% from the high end of the IPO price of $15 per share. Given the lack of upside, we would avoid this IPO deal. We based our valution based on 2.0x EV/S multiple (2022E), which is based on the average EV/S multiple of its peers in 2022. If the IPO is priced at the low end of the IPO price range, then it could be more attractive, but we are not too convinced of the investment merits of this company.
Among the many risks, we are especially concerned about the extreme price competition for electronic goods (including smartphones) and we do not believe that if the company could generate significant profits in this sector if it focuses just on the consumer electronics sector. In addition, we are not so sure about the company's capability in expanding profitably into other non-consumer electronics related areas going forward. 
Established in 2011 as an online platform buying and selling second-hand phones and other consumer electronics, Aihuishou focuses on the electronics.Aihuishou (RERE US) plans to raise $227 million in the upcoming IPO by offering 16.2 million ADS at a price range of $13 to $15 per share. Insiders plan to buy $100 million worth of ADS shares in this IPO. Aihuishou would have a market cap of $3.6 billion at the mid-point of the IPO price range. 

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aihuishou" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33426:1" rel="noopener">Aihuishou (RERE US)</a> operates the largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform in China under the brand “ATRenew”, which stands for “all things renew.” The platform consists of <em>AHS Recycle</em> (an omnichannel business for the collection of pre-owned consumer electronics), <em>PJT Marketplace</em> (B2B channel) and <em>Paipai Marketplace</em> (B2C channel). </p></div><div>
<p>At the mid-point of the proposed IPO price range of $13.00-15.00 per ADS, AiHuiShou will have a market cap of $3.1 billion. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are $205.7 million. The raise is materially below the rumoured target raise of $500 million to $1 billion, according to press reports.</p>
<p>Existing shareholders have indicated a total of $100 million of the IPO (44.0% of the ADSs at the mid-point of the IPO price range). The indications of interest from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a> and Tiger Global.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aihuishou-ipo-initiation-turning-the-vicious-cycle-into-a-virtuous-one" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52617" rel="noopener">AiHuiShou IPO Initiation: Turning the Vicious Cycle into a Virtuous One</a>, we stated that AiHuiShou as the largest player as measured by GMV and transacted devices, is well-positioned to capture its fair share of China's pre-owned consumer electronic devices market opportunity. AiHuiShou is delivering on this market opportunity through strong revenue growth, declining loss margin and improving cash burn. AiHuiShou’s business model will also appeal to investors with an ESG mandate. We concluded that AiHuiShou's story warrants a closer look.</p>
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<p>On a relative valuation basis and at the IPO price range, AiHuiShou is attractively valued on both an EV/Sales and growth adjusted EV/Sales multiples (an EV/Sales/Growth basis). Notably, the last funding round in May 2021 valued AiHuiShou at $19.43 per ordinary share, implying $12.96 per ADS which is broadly in line with the low-end of the IPO price range.</p>
<p>While the lower than expected raise suggest that AiHuiShou received lukewarm investor interest, yesterday's blistering first-day pop of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kanzhun-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33368:1" rel="noopener">Kanzhun (BZ US)</a> suggests that the market may be warming up again to high-growth Chinese ADRs. Overall, we are inclined to participate. </p>
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Aihuishou (RERE US) operates the largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform in China under the brand “ATRenew”, which stands for “all things renew.” The platform consists of AHS Recycle (an omnichannel business for the collection of pre-owned consumer electronics), PJT Marketplace (B2B channel) and Paipai Marketplace (B2C channel). 
At the mid-point of the proposed IPO price range of $13.00-15.00 per ADS, AiHuiShou will have a market cap of $3.1 billion. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are $205.7 million. The raise is materially below the rumoured target raise of $500 million to $1 billion, according to press reports.
Existing shareholders have indicated a total of $100 million of the IPO (44.0% of the ADSs at the mid-point of the IPO price range). The indications of interest from JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) and Tiger Global.
In AiHuiShou IPO Initiation: Turning the Vicious Cycle into a Virtuous One, we stated that AiHuiShou as the largest player as measured by GMV and transacted devices, is well-positioned to capture its fair share of China's pre-owned consumer electronic devices market opportunity. AiHuiShou is delivering on this market opportunity through strong revenue growth, declining loss margin and improving cash burn. AiHuiShou’s business model will also appeal to investors with an ESG mandate. We concluded that AiHuiShou's story warrants a closer look.

On a relative valuation basis and at the IPO price range, AiHuiShou is attractively valued on both an EV/Sales and growth adjusted EV/Sales multiples (an EV/Sales/Growth basis). Notably, the last funding round in May 2021 valued AiHuiShou at $19.43 per ordinary share, implying $12.96 per ADS which is broadly in line with the low-end of the IPO price range.
While the lower than expected raise suggest that AiHuiShou received lukewarm investor interest, yesterday's blistering first-day pop of Kanzhun (BZ US) suggests that the market may be warming up again to high-growth Chinese ADRs. Overall, we are inclined to participate. 


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aihuishou" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33426:1" rel="noopener">Aihuishou (RERE US)</a> (AHS), China’s largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform, aims to raise up to US$243m via a US listing. It is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>, Morningside and Tiger Global.</p></div><div>
<p>We covered some aspects of the deal in our earlier notes:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aihuishou-pre-ipo-mostly-positive-pre-owned-but-well-loved" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AiHuiShou Pre-IPO - Mostly Positive - Pre-Owned but Well Loved</a>. </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aihuishou-pre-ipo-first-stab-at-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AiHuiShou Pre-IPO - First Stab at Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aihuishou-pre-ipo-pricing-my-mobile-handset-at-physical-stores" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Aihuishou (爱回收) Pre-IPO: Pricing My Mobile Handset at Physical Stores</a></li>
</ul>
<p>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM Framework.</p>
</div>

Aihuishou (RERE US) (AHS), China’s largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform, aims to raise up to US$243m via a US listing. It is backed by JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US), Morningside and Tiger Global.
We covered some aspects of the deal in our earlier notes:


AiHuiShou Pre-IPO - Mostly Positive - Pre-Owned but Well Loved. 
AiHuiShou Pre-IPO - First Stab at Valuation
Aihuishou (爱回收) Pre-IPO: Pricing My Mobile Handset at Physical Stores

In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM Framework.


AiHuiShou IPO - Priced to Go but Won't Do a Kanzhun

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dingdong-maicia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33461:1" rel="noopener">Dingdong Maicia (DDL US)</a>, a groceries on-demand e-commerce company, aims to raise up to US$500m via a US listing. It is backed by Tiger Global, General Atlantic and Softbank.</p><p>Dingdong Maicai (DM) is an on-demand e-commerce company in China which provides users and households with fresh produce, meat and seafood and other daily necessities via its self-operated frontline fulfillment grid. As of 1Q21, DM had 6.9m monthly transacting users, who had placed 69.7m orders during the quarter. Its FY20 gross merchandise value was RMB13bn, representing a 10%+ market share for the on-demand ecommerce fresh groceries and daily necessities market.</p><p>Its core product category is fresh groceries and it procures most of its products directly and offers to deliver them to customers within 30mins of having received an order.</p>

Dingdong Maicia (DDL US), a groceries on-demand e-commerce company, aims to raise up to US$500m via a US listing. It is backed by Tiger Global, General Atlantic and Softbank.Dingdong Maicai (DM) is an on-demand e-commerce company in China which provides users and households with fresh produce, meat and seafood and other daily necessities via its self-operated frontline fulfillment grid. As of 1Q21, DM had 6.9m monthly transacting users, who had placed 69.7m orders during the quarter. Its FY20 gross merchandise value was RMB13bn, representing a 10%+ market share for the on-demand ecommerce fresh groceries and daily necessities market.Its core product category is fresh groceries and it procures most of its products directly and offers to deliver them to customers within 30mins of having received an order.

Dingdong Maicai Pre-IPO - Increasing Market Share, Fast Growth but No Signs of Profit

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aihuishou" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33426:1" rel="noopener">Aihuishou (RERE US)</a> operates the largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform in China under the brand “ATRenew”, which stands for “all things renew.” The platform consists of AHS Recycle (an omnichannel business for the collection of pre-owned consumer electronics), PJT Marketplace (B2B channel) and Paipai Marketplace (B2C channel).  AiHuiShou is seeking to raise $500 million to $1 billion through an NYSE listing, according to press reports.   </p></div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aihuishou-ipo-initiation-turning-the-vicious-cycle-into-a-virtuous-one" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52617" rel="noopener">AiHuiShou IPO Initiation: Turning the Vicious Cycle into a Virtuous One</a>, we stated that AiHuiShou as the largest player as measured by GMV and transacted devices, is well-positioned to capture its fair share of China's pre-owned consumer electronic devices market opportunity. AiHuiShou is delivering on this market opportunity through strong revenue growth, declining loss margin and improving cash burn. AiHuiShou’s business model will also appeal to investors with an ESG mandate. We concluded that AiHuiShou's story warrants a closer look. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at AiHuiShou's potential valuation range. </p></div></div>

Aihuishou (RERE US) operates the largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform in China under the brand “ATRenew”, which stands for “all things renew.” The platform consists of AHS Recycle (an omnichannel business for the collection of pre-owned consumer electronics), PJT Marketplace (B2B channel) and Paipai Marketplace (B2C channel).  AiHuiShou is seeking to raise $500 million to $1 billion through an NYSE listing, according to press reports.   In AiHuiShou IPO Initiation: Turning the Vicious Cycle into a Virtuous One, we stated that AiHuiShou as the largest player as measured by GMV and transacted devices, is well-positioned to capture its fair share of China's pre-owned consumer electronic devices market opportunity. AiHuiShou is delivering on this market opportunity through strong revenue growth, declining loss margin and improving cash burn. AiHuiShou’s business model will also appeal to investors with an ESG mandate. We concluded that AiHuiShou's story warrants a closer look. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at AiHuiShou's potential valuation range. 

China

Vipshop Holdings Ltd. retails branded products at discount over the Internet. The Company retails through flash sales, in which limited quantities of an item are sold at deep discount for a specified period of time.

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Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)

Aihuishou IPO Valuation Analysis

Our valuation analysis suggests an implied price of $15.8 per share for Aihuishou. This would represent an upside of 5% from the high end of the...

Douglas Kim

AiHuiShou IPO: Valuation Insights

While the lower than expected raise suggest lukewarm investor interest, yesterday's blistering first-day pop of Kanzhun points to improving market...

Arun George

AiHuiShou IPO - Priced to Go but Won't Do a Kanzhun

Aihuishou (RERE US), China’s largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform, aims to raise up to US$243m via a US...

Sumeet Singh

AiHuiShou IPO: Valuation First-Look

AiHuiShou is seeking to raise $0.5-1.0 billion through an NYSE listing. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at...

Arun George

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Aihuishou IPO Valuation Analysis

Our valuation analysis suggests an implied price of $15.8 per share for Aihuishou. This would represent an upside of 5% from the high end of the...

Douglas Kim

AiHuiShou IPO: Valuation Insights

While the lower than expected raise suggest lukewarm investor interest, yesterday's blistering first-day pop of Kanzhun points to improving market...

Arun George

AiHuiShou IPO - Priced to Go but Won't Do a Kanzhun

Aihuishou (RERE US), China’s largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform, aims to raise up to US$243m via a US...

Sumeet Singh

Dingdong Maicai Pre-IPO - Increasing Market Share, Fast Growth but No Signs of Profit

Dingdong Maicia (DDL US), a groceries on-demand e-commerce company, aims to raise up to US$500m via a US listing. It is backed by Tiger Global,...

Sumeet Singh

AiHuiShou IPO: Valuation First-Look

AiHuiShou is seeking to raise $0.5-1.0 billion through an NYSE listing. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at...

Arun George